2009 NFL Football Week Seven Preview and Picks

NFL 2009 week seven preview
NFL 2009 week seven preview

Who Will Win Each Game, and More Importantly, Who Will Cover the Spread

Last week was another of those weeks where I didn't do particularly bad, but I certainly could have done better. The Eagles losing to the Raiders didn't help me at all, although I doubt anyone picked that to happen. Nor did the Jets losing to Buffalo or the Bengals dropping the ball against Houston. However I did take a lot of satisfaction in the fact that the Cardinals and Broncos both won outright as an underdog, which made no sense to me that either one of them was getting points in games I felt they should win. Also, Baltimore, the other team I picked to win as a dog, covered even though they came up short (wide left actually) on the field.

I ended being 9-5 straight up and 7-7 against the spread. For the season, that leaves me with a record of 58-31 straight up and 44-45 (that sound you hear is me hitting my head against a wall) against the spread. It seems like all season long the point spreads have been enormous each week. I don't ever recall having so many lines that were more than a touchdown or even double digits every single week. Unfortunately, this week is no different in that respect. Fortunately for me however, there are several underdogs this week that I think have inflated numbers. The one thing that is making me real nervous though is that just about every team I like to win is a visiting team. It's hard to pick against almost every home team and feel good about it.

John Riggins Gives Some Advice to the Redskins

Tony Gonzalez is a big part of the reason Atlanta is off to such a good start this season
Tony Gonzalez is a big part of the reason Atlanta is off to such a good start this season

Have Your Say

What did you like most about week six?

See results without voting

What I Liked in Week Six

  1. Atlanta Establishing a Home Field Advantage Over the Past Two Seasons - The Falcons have done a lot of good things over the past two years. Winning 15 out of 21 games (and counting) is one of those things. Another is being on the verge of having two consecutive winning seasons for the first time in team history. A big part of the reason for those first two milestones is the fact that they have finally established a legitimate home field advantage for the first time in years. After beating Chicago in week six, Atlanta is now 10-1 the past two seasons at home including all three games this season.
  2. The Broncos/Chargers Kick Return Teams - It's not every day you see a kick return for a touchdown. So when three are returned all the way in a single game, including two by the same player that's truly a rarity. In fact, Eddie Royal's 93 yard and 71 yard returns along with Darren Sproles' 77 yard punt return tied the record for most return TD's in an NFL game. People who like to get up for snacks during kickoffs learned a painful lesson on Monday night. Together, Royal and Sproles combined for more return yardage (461) than either the Broncos or Chargers offense.
  3. Ben Roethlisberger - The days of Big Ben throwing 8 or 9 passes a game while te defense and running game win the game are long over with. Roethisberger is not just a capable quarterback he is the focus of the Steelers' offense. The 417 yards he threw for against the Browns in week six put him in second place among league QB's. The lack of a consistent running game has pushed the offense in that direction, but it doesn't hurt to have receivers like Hines Ward (8 catches for 159 yards) and Santana Holmes (5 catches for 104 yards) to throw to.
  4. Pittsburgh's Liquored Up Idiot Kicker - As much as the NFL is trying to clean up its image and all, sometimes the craziness is just funny. Jeff Reed is one of those guys that does a lot of really stupid shit that usually only ends up hurting himself. Actually, he does kinda hurt my stomach a bit from laughing. The latest was his attempt to intercede between the police and one of his drinking buddies by jumping out of a car and "assuming a fighting stance." In case that visual isn't enough to inspire laughter, he was promptly slammed to the concrete and arrested with very little actual fight involved. Previously, Jeff has entertained us by taking pictures of his wiener in the bathroom of a bar and picking a fight with a towel holder in the bathroom of a store (I'm sensing a theme) and various other drunken exploits usually commemorated on film.

I see a wedgie in our future
I see a wedgie in our future

Have Your Say

What did you like the least about week six?

See results without voting

What I Didn't Like in Week Six

  1. The Ravens Settling for a Missed Field Goal - Baltimore managed to stage an amazing second half comeback against Minnesota Sunday. After being down 27-10 in the fourth quarter, they manged to pull ahead 31-30 with just 3:37 to play. Then things got a little silly for both teams. First Minnesota marched right down the field until they got down to the Ravens' 18 yard line with 2:46 to play. At that point, they ran three short run plays to force Baltimore to use up their time outs and kicked a field goal for a two point lead instead of even trying to score a touchdown. Next the Ravens took over with just under two minutes to play and proceeded to go straight down the field as they had throughout the fourth quarter. That is until they got within scoring distance with almost a full minute remaining, at which point they ran a short running play, waiting for the clock to run down before spiking the ball, and missed a 44 yard field goal as time ran out. Granted, an NFL kicker should be able to make it from 44 yards, but to not even try to at least pick up some more yards when you've been moving the ball at will all day is ludicrous.
  2. Andy Reid Refusing to Run the Ball - There aren't a lot of words that fit neatly into a description of the performance put on by the Eagles against the Raiders in week six as much s pathetic does. It was an all around crappy game from the defense that allowed JaMarcus Russell to play like an actual professional quarterback right down to the offensive line that allowed Donovan Mcnabb to get sacked six times and David Akers missing two field goals. Admittedly, the Eagles also got a raw deal when the refs failed to call a penalty on Oakland for having 12 men on the field during a kickoff. But the crowning achievement was Andy Reid's utter refusal to call running plays against Oakland's 31st ranked run defense. Instead he called 46 passes and just 14 runs in a game they never trailed by more than a touchdown and in which they gained 4.8 yards per rush and just 4.7 per pass. That's pretty much the recipe for becoming the first team not to score a touchdown against the Raiders in three years. Good news Philly fans, Andy Reid is currently working on a contract extension.
  3. Matt Forte Fumbling Twice on the Goal Line - Call it a sophomore slump or what's come to be expected for running backs in Chicago these days or whatever you will, but Matt Forte isn't exactly setting the orld on fire this season. Against Atlanta he managed to gain 23 yards on 15 carries for a whopping 1.5 yard per carry average. That wasn't even enough to measure up to his less than stellar 3.4 yard season average. Worse yet, he fumbled the ball on consecutive plays, losing it after getting the first fumble back, at the one yard line in a game the Bears lost by seven points. Not a good time to have twice as many fumbles in one drive as you had all last season.
  4. Mark Sanchez Throwing Interceptions - Boy, how the mighty have fallen and in a hurry too. The Jets from being a popular pick to win it all at 3-0 to a team that can't get out of its own way at 3-3. A lot of it has to do with their quarterback's sudden struggles and his recent tendency to throw interceptions like he's giving out candy on Halloween. All of which is a scenario that sounds fairly familiar for some reason. Of course, Sanchez isn't entirely responsible for the tailspin the Jets are currently trapped in, but his sudden realization that he's a rookie isn't helping things at all.

The Broncos Celebrate Yet Another Dominant Second Half Performance
The Broncos Celebrate Yet Another Dominant Second Half Performance

Have Your Say

What is the most significant thing you learned in week six?

See results without voting

What I Learned in Week Six

  1. The Broncos Own the Second Half This Season - First of all, anybody that is still harboring doubt about the Broncos needs to accept that they are not going to crumble and disappear this season. They are past the point where the offseason turmoil might affect them and they all but wrapped up the division in week six against San Diego. The most striking thing about the Broncos this season is the way they have dominated teams in the second half. They've outscored opponents 74-10, outgained them 1368-605, and only allowed 2 out of 35 conversions by the other teams on third down during the second half (none in the last four games) . That's just unheard of for a team to play that much better from one half to the next. They might score 50 points in the fourth quarter against the Steelers on Nov. 9th.
  2. The Colts are the Least Celebrated Undefeated Team in the NFL - It's not so much that the Colts are underrated as it is just that people seem to be used to them always being good. They are typically mentioned among the best teams and they get their due in the rankings for the most part. However, whenever the subject of who the best team is comes up you typically have heard New York (either one), New Orleans, Denver, or Minnesota. It just seems like Indy is always the no. 2 team in the conversation. And yet they keep just plugging along winning every game and starting out undefeated deep into the season yet again.
  3. The Chiefs Have Some Low Expectations this Season - The Kansas City players topped off a less than compelling victory against the Redskins by dumping Gatorade on head coach Todd Haley. First of all, it's funny because this glorious victory gave them a 1-5 record. Secondly, it's funny because it reminds me of the time when the Long Beach State football team killed George Allen, who ironically had coached the Redskins, by dunking a Gatorade bucket filled with ice water over his head. At least they waited until they had secured a winning record before they put him on his death bed.
  4. The Trade Deadline Comes Way Too Early in the NFL - Maybe it's just me, but I think the trade deadline comes way to soon. There are rarely any meaningful trades because the season is barely underway before the deadline hits. I know the theory behind it is that they want to avoid losing teams having a fire sale and shipping off all their players once they are out of contention like sometimes happens in baseball, but that doesn't really seem to have ever been an issue in the NFL. It would be nice if teams had some options once the injuries started to pile up in the second half of the season.

"Can't you do something to make them stop scoring"
"Can't you do something to make them stop scoring"

Have Your Say

What is the thing you were least surprised by in week six?

See results without voting

What I already Knew

  1. The Giants Incredible Stats Had as Much To Do With Who They Were Playing as How Great They Actually are - The Giants are a pretty solid team in spite of their convincing loss to New Orleans in week six. They are still the favorites to win the NFC East and could go pretty far into the playoffs at the end of the season, barring some significant injuries. However, the reason that they were so dominant statistically in the first five games of the season, especially on defense, was because they played Washington, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Oakland. In the one game they played previously against a decent offense they gave up 31 points to the Cowboys in a game that Tony Romo didn't play particularly well. The fact New Orleans was able to score on them wasn't shocking although how many they scored was a bit surprising. The point of doubt going in was whether the Giants could match the Saints in scoring. Unfortunately, they couldn't.
  2. It's Pretty Safe to Say Tom Brady is Back At This Point - Speaking of scoring a lot of points, not too long ago the Patriots were having a bit of a problem doing that. But the combination of the Titans coming to town and Wes Welker getting back on the field has changed that just a bit. That was pretty much the worst beating any NFL team has taken in recent history. This game was effectively in the first quarter and amazingly it wasn't even as close as the 59-0 final score. New England could have easily scored a few more touchdowns and Tennessee never indicated at any time that they might even come close to scoring one. In fa ct it reminds me of an old quote from Sammy Baugh after the Redskins lost 73-0 to the Bears in the 1940 NFL Championship. Asked if things would have maybe gone differently if one of his receivers hadn't dropped a ass in the first quarter that would have tied the game 7-7, Baugh replied, "Sure. The final score would have been 73-7." That's the kinda day it was in Boston last Sunday for the Titans.
  3. Sunday's Debacle May Have Been the Beginning of the End for the Jeff Fisher Era in Tennessee- The saddest thing about that game was that the Titans never appeared to even want to put up any sort of fight. The Titans created a perfect storm of missed tackles, dropped passes, and blown coverages that guaranteed they would be blown off of the field by the Patriots. It was just sad to watch the way the Titans just rolled over and quit. And it might not bode well for Jeff Fisher. As much as I've pointed out that Albert Haynesworth leaving is really responsible for their epic collapse, they can't fire Haynesworth and having the team completely give up just six games into the season is the recipe for a new address for Fisher. Plus, his record is 40-46 over the last seven seasons with only two winning seasons. If their losing ways continue or get worse that 13-3 season last year might not be enough to keep the wolves at bay.
  4. The Jim Zorn Era is All Over Except for the Screaming and Gnashing of Teeth - As lon as we are discussing coaches on the dead Coach Walking list, Jim Zorn is all but history in Washington. If it wasn't bad enough that he had to accept an "offensive consultant" two weeks ago and then give up play calling duties to him after week six, he's now officially received the dreaded vote of confidence from General Manager Vinny Cerrato. In addition, rumor has it that Mike Shanahan was already offered the job, but turned it down. So, it's obviously only a matter of time at this point. Personally, I think they are just trying to sweat him out and see if they can make him miserable enough to quit so they don't have to pay him that final year of his contract.

This will soon be remembered as the good old days by Jason Campbell and the Redskins
This will soon be remembered as the good old days by Jason Campbell and the Redskins

Have Your Say

Which Prediction Do You Think is Most Likely to Happen?

See results without voting

Predictions for Week Seven

  1. Things are About to Get a Lot Worse for the Redskins - The amazing thing about the Redskins horrible start is that this is the easy portion of their schedule. In a bit of an odd anomaly Washington's first six opponents came into the game winless. Four of the six managed to get their first victory courtesy of the Redskins. Now comes the hard part for Washington. Starting Monday, they play the Eagles (twice), Cowboys (twice), Giants, Falcons, Saints, Broncos, Chargers, and Raiders. Which means they will ave one game (Oakland) in which they might be favored to win the rest of the season and that's not even guaranteed. They'll be lucky to win five games this year.
  2. The Jets Defense is Going to Miss Kris Jenkins - When it rains it pours. Not only is Mark Sanchez struggling at this point, but the defense hasn't played great the past two weeks either. On top of that nose tackle Kris Jenkins, the best player on New York's defense, was injured against Buffalo and is gone for the season. Jenkins, who is 6-4 and weighs 360 pounds, was responsible for much of the pressure from the defensive line that allowed the Jets defense to thrive in the first three games of the season. This loss will create a huge hole and the Jets ability (or inability) to fill that hole could very well decide how far they go this season.
  3. Expect to See a Lot of Frank Gore Against the Texans - San Francisco running back Frank Gore is back after missing two games with an ankle injury. While the Texans' defense have gotten a little better against the run, they are still toward the bottom of the heap. Meanwhile, the 49ers are going to be looking to get back on track after the 45-10 beating they took from the Falcons prior to their bye in week five. The thing that the Niners used to do back before week five was hand off to Frank Gore and watch him run down the field all day long. Expect them to return to that formula against Houston.
  4. Expect a Lot of Points in the Fourth Quarter of the Pittsburgh/Minnesota Game - If you are a betting man, take the over in the second half of the Steelers game against the Vikings. First, both teams have injury problems in their defensive backfields which have made them vulnerable against passing teams. Second, both teams quarterbacks have been playing extremely well, so they will have the capability to take advantage of the first issue. Finally, both of them have had a habit of giving up points late. Pittsburgh has a habit of letting teams sneak back into games. Even against Cleveland they let them get all the way down to the one yard line late, while trailing 27-14, before Ryan Clark prevented them from getting back into it with an interception. I expect this to be a shootout and I think Adrian Peterson will be the ultimate difference for Minnesota, while both Favre and Roethlisberger will have big days. 

My Picks for the 2009 Week Seven NFL Games

Sun, Oct. 25
10:00 AM (PDT)
11:00 AM (MDT)
12:00 PM (CDT)
1:00 PM (EDT)
Favorite
Underdog
Point Spread
Straight Up
Against the Spread
Green Bay
Cleveland
9.0
Green Bay
Green Bay
San Diego
Kansas City
4.5
San Diego
San Diego
Indianapolis
St. Louis
13.0
Indianapolis
Indianapolis
Pittsburgh
Minnesota
4.5
Minnesota
Minnesota
New England
Tampa Bay
14.5
New England
New England
Houston
San Francisco
3.0
San Francisco
San Francisco
Sun, Oct. 25
1:00 PM (PDT)
2:00 PM (MDT)
3:00 PM (CDT)
4:00 PM (EDT)
New York Jets
Oakland
6.0
New York Jets
New York Jets
Carolina
Buffalo
7.0
Carolina
Buffalo
Cincinnati
Chicago
1.0
Cincinnati
Cincinnati
Dallas
Atlanta
4.0
Atlanta
Atlanta
New Orleans
Miami
6.0
New Orleans
New Orleans
Sun, Oct. 25
5:20 PM (PDT)
6:20 PM (MDT)
7:20 PM (CDT)
8:20 PM (EDT)
New York Giants
Arizona
7.0
New York Giants
Arizona
Mon, Oct. 26
5:30 PM (PDT)
6:30 PM (MDT)
7:30 PM (CDT)
8:30 PM (EDT)
Philadelphia
Washington
7.0
Philadelphia
Philadelphia
Teams with byes in week seven: Baltimore, Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, Seattle, Tennessee

NFL Products on Amazon.com

More by this Author


9 comments

ShyneIV profile image

ShyneIV 7 years ago from Montreal

Great hub dude as usual. Our picks are pretty much the same except I picked the Steelers to win. Should be a great game; get ready to battle me in picks lol


EYEAM4ANARCHY profile image

EYEAM4ANARCHY 7 years ago from Las Vegas, NV. Author

Thanks. You know what they say, "great mimes think alike." Or something like that anyway.


ShyneIV profile image

ShyneIV 7 years ago from Montreal

Yeppers. Man kick off can't come fast enough


Paul Edmondson profile image

Paul Edmondson 7 years ago from Burlingame, CA

This is one of the best recaps and analysis I've read on the NFL. Awesome. I think I'd go with Chicago over Cincinnati, but I can't argue about your picks. NFL points spreads are so good, it's really tough to be over 500 against the spread. See if you can pull ahead this week. Good luck.


EYEAM4ANARCHY profile image

EYEAM4ANARCHY 7 years ago from Las Vegas, NV. Author

Looks like Favre remembered the art of the game ending turnover that he had forgotten about so far this season. So you got me again this week Shyne.

Thanks Paul,

Football is my one major vice, so I eat it up during the season. It doesn't hurt living in Vegas, where I can go to the casino and watch every game on big screen TV's, either.

I may pull myself back over the edge this week against the spread since I'm 4-1-1 in the morning games. It is tough to pick every game against the spread. There are a lot of games I'm not sure about or I just don't like how many points the favorite is giving. When I'm actually betting I would stay away from those games, but since I'm picking every game, I don't have that option. Knowing which games to avoid is actually a skill in its own rite.


Paul Edmondson profile image

Paul Edmondson 7 years ago from Burlingame, CA

Good call on Cinci...looks like they are destroying the Bears.


EYEAM4ANARCHY profile image

EYEAM4ANARCHY 7 years ago from Las Vegas, NV. Author

Yeah, I can't actually say I expected it to be that lopsided, but I figured the Bengals would be hungry after last week.


Carmen Borthwick profile image

Carmen Borthwick 7 years ago from Maple Ridge, B.C.

Good hub series, I'll pass it along to my husband. I don't know alot about football, but I did enjoy this and know a bit more now.


EYEAM4ANARCHY profile image

EYEAM4ANARCHY 7 years ago from Las Vegas, NV. Author

Thanks Carmen. It's never too late to learn.

    Sign in or sign up and post using a HubPages Network account.

    0 of 8192 characters used
    Post Comment

    No HTML is allowed in comments, but URLs will be hyperlinked. Comments are not for promoting your articles or other sites.


    Click to Rate This Article
    working