2009 NFL Football Week Six Preview and Picks

2009 NFL Week six Preview and Picks
2009 NFL Week six Preview and Picks

Who Will Win Each Game, and More Importantly, Who Will Cover the Spread

Things started out well last week, but they didn't quite hold up as the games unfolded. In the early games, I won 5 out of 7 games both straight up and against the spread. But then during the late games things went terribly wrong. I ended up losing 2 of 6 both straight up against the spread in the late games. Things didn't get much better on Monday Night when Miami came back late and scored to cost me both straight up and against the number. So, my final tally for the week ended up being an identical 7-7 record both straight up, which is by far the worst I've done yet, and against the spread. Bringing my season record to 49-26 straight up and 37-38 against the spread. Which means I'm still fighting to get above .500 against the bookies. At least this week the spreads aren't quite as ridiculous as they have been the past couple weeks, although there are a few big ones.

If a Team Loses in an Empty Stadium, Does Anybody Really Care?

San Francisco defenders spent a lot of time standing around watching the action against the Falcons.
San Francisco defenders spent a lot of time standing around watching the action against the Falcons.

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What did you like most about week five?

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What I Liked in Week Five

  1. The Falcons Snapping Back From Their First Loss in a Big Way - After getting outplayed and beaten by the Patriots in their last game, the Falcons could have gone either of two ways. They either could have fallen apart and spiraled downward or come out fighting and play the part of the Patriots against their next opponent. While they got plenty of help from the 49ers, the Falcons emphatically chose the second option exposing San Francisco as a team that might still be a year away from being a true contender. Don't get me started on Dre Bly celebrating 60 yards early (while down 25 points) instead of tucking the ball away after an interception and then fumbling.
  2. Eagles Receiver Jeremy Maclin - The planned storyline of Donovan Mcnabb's return from his injury got overshadowed a bit by Philadelphia rookie Jeremy Maclin's coming out party against Tampa Bay. After only catching six passes for 45 yards all season without a score, Maclin caught six passes for 142 yards and two TD's last Sunday alone. It was very timely with Desean Jackson having an off game (one catch for one yard) and bodes well for the future if he is more than a one shot. Jackson and Maclin would give Mcnabb, who didn't do bad himself against the Buccaneers, a pair of potent weapons to stretch the field.
  3. The Bengals Outshining Baltimore's Celebrated Defense - Several analysts predicted that Cincinnati would be a competitor this season. But I was a bit skeptical of those predictions, mostly because they were all based on the idea that the Bengals' offense would be very good this year. However, offense hasn't really been the problem in Cincinnati. Turns out those guys were right, only for the wrong reason. In fact, the Bengals could use a little more offense, but their defense has really turned out this season. While their offense is only ranked no. 20 in scoring, their defense is ranked no. 9 in points allowed. They seemed to have developed a taste for three point victories over the last three games, but they have found a way to win, one way or another. Baltimore has actually done the same sort of trick only in reverse. After dominating on defense and stinking on offense for years, they are suddenly paying well on offense, but not so great on defense. Plus, they have found a way to lose games they really should have won the past two weeks.
  4. The Seattle Seahawks Offense When Matt Hasselbeck Plays - Not that Jacksonville put up much of a fight, but the Seattle offense is like night and day when Hasselbeck is behind center. The Seahawks have now score 69 points in the two victories here Hasselbeck has played and 46 points in the three losses without him. Granted Indianapolis, Chicago, and San Francisco, who they lost to, are quite a bit better than St. Louis and Jacksonville, but still that's a pretty significant difference.

Not a lot of that going on in the fourth quarter in Pittsurgh games this season.
Not a lot of that going on in the fourth quarter in Pittsurgh games this season.

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What did you like the least about week five?

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What I Didn't Like in Week Five

  1. The Steelers Playing Soft on Defense in the Fourth Quarter - The Steelers have developed a pattern every since their Super Bowl victory last year of sprinting out to a big lead with aggressive man to man coverage on defense and then nearly giving the games away by trying to play it safe in the fourth quarter with a soft zone coverage. This philosophy has been anything but safe for them. So far in every such game, including their two losses this season, they have squandered a big second half lead. Once again, this was the case against Detroit, who they should have beaten easily. Instead the Lions managed to get within a single score of having the opportunity to tie the game. At some point, they need to figure out that being aggressive is what will win games for them or the will be losing those games.
  2. Derek Anderson Making JaMarcus Russell Look Good - Derek Anderson didn't exactly set himself up to be the savior at QB in Cleveland last week. In fact, it's rather baffling how a quarterback could actually have a day in which he completes 2 of 17 passes for all of 23 yards (with an interception) and win the game. At least JaMarcus Russell has enough respect for the game to lose. But this actually says as much about the Bills as it does for the Browns. They are both horrible teams with abysmal offenses.
  3. The Bears Trading a Second Round Pick For Yet Another Ineffective Pass Rusher - The Bears sure have gotten trigger happy all of a sudden with their trades. First, they use their next two first round picks plus a third rounder to pick up Jay Cutler. That's pretty steep, but somewhat understandable with the problems they've had finding a decent QB in the past 20 or 50 years (give or take). But this time Tampa Bay saw them coming from a mile away. In exchange for a second round pick they got Gaines Adams, who was picked in the first round, but is half a season away from being an official bust. He's done exactly nothing in his two and a half years with the Bucs. Unless he suddenly figures something out, he won't be doing much to improve the Bears' weak pass rush.
  4. The Cowboys Squeaking By Another Inferior Opponent - Once again in week five, Dallas barely beat a team that, based on talent, they should have blown off the field. Kansas City managed to take a 13-3 lead before letting Dallas go up 20-13. Even then, the Chiefs managed to force the game into overtime before the Cowboys finally won. The most sure sign of a badly coached tam is when a talented team plays down to their opponents and that's been the modis operandi for the Cowboys all season. Actually, that's been the case for several years now, but even more so this year. Unfortunately for Cowboys fans, I think the unraveling has just begun in Dallas. It's going to get very ugly before it gets any better.

Ronnie Brown celebrates after scoring the winning TD against the Jets.
Ronnie Brown celebrates after scoring the winning TD against the Jets.

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What is the most significant thing you learned in week five?

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What I Learned in Week Five

  1. Maybe Chad Henne Should Have Been the Guy All Along - My initial impression when Chad Pennington was injured was that the Dolphins were pretty much out of it this. Bit it turns out the other guy named Chad isn't half bad. In fact if the way he played against the Jets on Monday was any indication of the future, fate did the Dolphins a favor by sidelining Pennington. This guy can actually get the ball down the field. Ted Ginn Jr. isn't such a waste after all now that somebody with a little arm strength is there to toss the ball around. Imagine how different their last Monday Night game against Indianapolis might have unfolded if Henne had been behind center instead of Pennington.
  2. It's Time to Give Denver Their Due - So far, for the past three weeks I've been predicting that Denver would come crashing down to earth once they faced some real competition. But you can only fight it so long. At some point, you just have to throw in the towel and accept that a team really is as good as their record. Beating the Cowboys wasn't exactly a big deal the way Dallas has played this season. However, taking the Patriots out was a statement. It remains to be seen if the Patriots will measure up to their previous success, but they did beat the Falcons and Ravens when each of them were undefeated. So they are at least a reasonably good measuring stick and the Broncs measured up.
  3. The Redskins are Now 2-3 With Albert Haynesworth - I've pointed out previously that the Titans have struggled and are 4-19 (and counting) any time Albert Haynesworth wasn't playing with their defense since he became a starter. And while I don't doubt that the absence of last year's defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz, also has something to do with that, when Schwartz was there and Haynesworth wasn't they were still 4-14. Unfortunately for Redskins fans though, things haven't quite worked the other way around. Partly because of injuries, which he also was prone to in Tennessee, Haynesworth's presence hasn't had the same type of positive effect on Washington's defense. Instead, he is dangerously close to being yet another high priced free agent bust for the Redskins. It's almost like Washington is some sort of vampire that sucks the life out of any high profile veteran that sign with them.
  4. The Pendulum May Be Getting Ready to Swing Again - It'll likely take a couple more seasons, but it seams like the dominant conference is about to swing back toward the NFC again. For whatever reason, roughly every decade one conference ends up winning the majority of the championships. It was starting to seem like the AFC might just make the NFC its permanent whipping boy, but the past couple seasons some signs have started to emerge that point to a potential shift in the power structure. Slowly but surely, the NFC has been able to compete with the AFC. With the Giants winning the Super Bowl two years ago and the Cardinals giving the Steelers everything they could handle last year, it's no longer a formality to go through the motions of the Super Bowl before handing the Lombardi trophy to the AFC champs. The most significant factor is the disparity in age between the AFC power teams and the NFC power teams. The Patriots, Colts, Titans, Steelers, Ravens, and Chargers all having aging stars who are beginning to hit the downhill part of their careers. Meanwhile, the Falcons, Niners, Giants, Vikings, Packers, Cardinals, and Saints all have young players either just reaching or in the midst of their prime. Each conference also has exceptions to that rule. The Broncos, Jets, and Dolphins are fairly young, while the Eagles, Cowboys, and Seahawks are talented, but aging. Even so, the teams that were recently dominant for the AFC are starting to get a bit long in the tooth and most of the younger upstarts are in the NFC.


Even though the Jets lost, Braylon Edwards had a big game against the Dolphins
Even though the Jets lost, Braylon Edwards had a big game against the Dolphins

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What is the thing you were least surprised by in week five?

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What I already Knew

  1. Braylon Edwards Could Be a Huge Weapon For the Jets - After being traded from the lowly Browns to the Jets, Braylon Edwards flew to New York, practiced one time with the team, flew down to Miami, and then caught five passes for 64 yards and a touchdown. Just imagine what he might do once he knows a couple of the Jets' plays. It's amazing what a difference it can make playing for a team that has some chance of making playoffs more than once a decade. Suddenly, he's not so lethargic and uninterested. And now New York has that deep threat they have been missing all season. Things could get interesting for the Jets.
  2. The Money Crabtree Lost By Not Getting Picked By Oakland Was Worth It - Instead of holding out for more money, Michael Crabtree should have been thanking his lucky stars that it was Darrius Heyward-Bey who got exiled to the Raiders and not him. The six to ten million dollars less that Crabtree got as a result was money well spent in avoiding being a part of the Oakland offense. The last thing a receiver needs is a quarterback who averages a thirty percent completion percentage throwing to him. There's a reason they call the Coliseum the "Black Hole."
  3. Eric Mangini Might Be the Biggest Idiot Ever - I might have to give this its own category, since it seems to be a constantly reoccurring theme. Something along the lines of "Ways Eric Mangini Has Been an Idiot in Week ____." Every week something else crops up that is worse than the week before. The latest is that the NFL is investigating whether Jim Davis was either allowed or forced to (depending on the source) practice without pads against other players wearing pads. The result of the incident was a season ending injury for Davis. To add a bit of spice to the rum Mangini squashed recent rumors that the Browns were looking to trade Brady Quinn. Now admittedly I'm no genius, but if a guy can't beat out someone who could only complete 2 out of 17 passes, you should be looking to get rid of him, even if all you can get in return is a pack of gum.
  4. Dead Coaches Walking - So that brings us to the Dead Coaches Walking list. Not surprisingly, two of the guys I already mentioned are on the list. That would of course be Eric Mangini and Tom Cable, who are both living on borrowed time. Joining them on the list of coaches hanging by a thread would be Jim Zorn in Washington, who was introduced to his future interim replacement last week, Wade Philips, who received the dreaded vote of confidence from Jerry Jones earlier this week, and Jack Del Rio. Others who aren't quite to that point but are inching closer all the time include Dick Jauron in Buffalo, for obvious reasons, Gary Kubiak in Houston, because you can only go 8-8 so many times before a little more is expected, and Raheem Morris. John Fox, Norv Turner, and Jeff Fisher are all dark horse candidates who will likely make it to the end of the season and probably beyond that, but could find their heads on the chopping block too if their teams don't perform (or continue performing the way they have in the case the Panthers and Titans) in the second half of the season.

In round two everyone loses their job and is replaced by an equally mediocre staff hand-picked by Al Davis.
In round two everyone loses their job and is replaced by an equally mediocre staff hand-picked by Al Davis.

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Which Prediction Do You Think is Most Likely to Happen?

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Predictions for Week Five

  1. Tom Cable Will Never Serve a Suspension For His Attack on Randy Hanson - That's not so much because he won't be suspended as much as because he wont be coaching in the NFL long enough to have the opportunity to be suspended. Between the miserable state of the Raiders and the criminal case hanging over his head, Cable is already on borrowed time in Oakland. The only way I see him making it past week nine, is if Al Davis decides to get into a pissing match with the NFL over them suspending him. Being that part of the cause of the dispute that led to the broken jaw was that Hanson was spying on the other coaches for Davis, I don't see that happening. Nor do I see any other NFL team rushing in to hire Cable after this scandal.
  2. Adam Vinatieri's Injury Could Hurt the Colts in Close Games, But... - fortunately for the Colts, there aren't many of those on their schedule. With the collapse of the Titans, winning the division title is almost a formality at this point. The only teams that should be able to play them close the rest of the year are San Francisco, New England, Baltimore, Denver, and the Jets. Even then, they should be able to potentially beat every one of those teams. So figuring in those tough games and a couple upsets along the way, they still should win at least eleven games and possibly as many as thirteen.
  3. The Curse of the Rams is Upon the Vikings - A few days ago while browsing the internets I came across this little tidbit of info. So far, every team that has played the Rams this year has lost their next game. That includes Detroit getting their first win since the NFL-AFL merger after Washington beat the Rams and the 49ers getting their ass thoroughly beat last week. Normally, I might chalk that up to a weird coincidence that was due to fail, but a couple things struck me about the Viking game this week. First and foremost, the Ravens are coming in after having lost two straight games they should have won if not for some bonehead plays/penalties, so there is a good chance they will be very hungry. Plus their schedule gets brutal after this week (Den, Cin, Indy, Chi, Pit twice,), so if they can't win now it's going to be an uphill battle the rest of the way. Secondly, Baltimore matches up well with the Minnesota. They can beat the blitz with short passes to their running backs or hit their receivers long, which the Vikings defense has been vulnerable to, when given time. They also have the ability to get after the QB on defense, which has been the key to beating Favre over the years. The third and final strike is the fact that the Vikings opponents in the first five weeks of the season have a combined record of 7-17 and the 49ers, who came one play from beating them, own three of those wins. This could be the Vikings toughest test until they play the Giants in week 17. Which is why people in Minnesota will be crying into their three week old Favre jerseys Sunday evening.
  4. Trading TO to the Bears Would Be Good For Everyone Involved - The big rumor going into the final days before the trading deadline on Tuesday is that the Bears may make a trade for Terrell Owens. Whether they have enough draft picks left after trading next year's no. 1 and 2 picks and the no.1 in 2011 for Jay Cutler and Gaines Adams is questionable. However, this is one trade that would be great for everyone involved. Trent Edwards just doesn't have the arm to get the ball to Owens, so it's a waste for him to even be in Buffalo. In fact, the Bills have become the NFL version of a Mike Tyson fight, where the only reason anyone even watches their games is because they want to see if TO will do something outrageous. Meanwhile, the Bears would be a legitimate contender if Cutler had a receiver like Owens to throw to. On top of that, TO is playing on a one year deal. So he wouldn't have time to conjure up some imaginary slight and get angry at somebody for some perceived insult. It's an obvious win-win-win.

My Picks for the 2009 Week Six NFL Games

Sun, Oct. 18
10:00 AM (PST)
11:00 AM (MST)
12:00 PM (CST)
1:00 PM (EST)
Favorite
Underdog
Point Spread
Straight Up
Against the Spread
Cincinnati
Houston
5.0
Cincinnati
Cincinnati
Green Bay
Detroit
13.5
Green Bay
Detroit
Minnesota
Baltimore
3.0
Baltimore
Baltimore
New Orleans
New York Giants
3.0
New Orleans
New Orleans
Pittsburgh
Cleveland
14.0
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
Carolina
Tampa Bay
3.5
Carolina
Tampa Bay
Washington
Kansas City
6.5
Washington
Kansas City
Jacksonville
St. Louis
9.5
Jacksonville
Jacksonville
Sun, Oct. 18
1:00 PM (PST)
2:00 PM (MST)
3:00 PM (CST)
4:00 PM (EST)
Philadelphia
Oakland
14.0
Philadelphia
Philadelphia
Seattle
Arizona
3.0
Arizona
Arizona
New England
Tennessee
9.5
New England
New England
New York Jets
Buffalo
9.5
New York Jets
New York Jets
Sun, Oct. 18
5:20 PM (PST)
6:20 PM (MST)
7:20 PM (CST)
8:20 PM (EST)
Atlanta
Chicago
3.5
Atlanta
Atlanta
Mon, Oct. 19
5:30 PM (PST)
6:30 PM (MST)
7:30 PM (CST)
8:30 PM (EST)
San Diego
Denver
3.5
Denver
Denver
Teams With Byes This Week: Cowboys, Colts, Dolphins, 49ers

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5 comments

ShyneIV profile image

ShyneIV 7 years ago from Montreal

Love how you called out Eric Mangini.I say from now on we call him Eric ManginA.


EYEAM4ANARCHY profile image

EYEAM4ANARCHY 7 years ago from Las Vegas, NV. Author

I definitely think it's much more fitting than his previous nickname.


wavegirl22 profile image

wavegirl22 7 years ago from New York, NY

I keep hearing about the TO trade. . thanks to this Hub I think I understand it a bit better. .Chicago could really use a little sumthing! I am looking forward to reading the rest of your writings. . a girl can never learn enough!!!


EYEAM4ANARCHY profile image

EYEAM4ANARCHY 7 years ago from Las Vegas, NV. Author

Thanks wavegirl,

Mostly what I've been hearing the past few days is that TO won't be traded, but I think there are several teams, along with the Bears, that could use him for half a year. The Seahawks wouldn't be a bad spot, nor would the Dolphins. I think the key would be that they are in a position to contend right now, don't have a clear no. 1 receiver, and have a QB that can throw deep.


Yamada 3 years ago

Sep05 Mahr draws an interesting plrleaal between the Steelers and the Pirates. However, the Pirates ownership is not incompetent or as unfeeling as Mahr suggests. They are worse.The Pirates receive a wealth transfer (i.e., tax) from the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, and other teams that spend beyond an arbritary threashold. Instead of spending this money on players or organization, the Pirates owners pocket this money.In the NFL, the league mandates spending floors and spending ceilings especially on salaries to ensure all teams maintain a competitive product that keeps fans interested.Can you imagine limiting a corporation's expenditures on salary? What if all corporations could only allocate 65% of sales revenue on salaries? How many multimillionaire CEOs would you see at that point? Hmm .

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