Can you make money following odds on shots.

can you make money following odds on shots?


How reliable is following Odds on shots? Part 1

Many punters believe Odds on shots are “Good things”, but is there any long term value in following such short priced runners?

The TV experts often say that Odds on shots win two out of every three of their races, but an unusual occurrence has been happening in recent years - Odds on shots are winning fewer of their races and the trend would appear to be continuing.

The main rationale for following such short priced runners would be to eliminate long losing runs but even at such shorts prices you would have endured a run of at least 6 consecutive losers and this is the biggest problem in following such short priced runners; at bigger prices a losing run of 6 can be retrieved with a single winner, but at such short prices it becomes difficult to get even your original stake back, that alone make a profit.

Realistically you would need a strike rate of around 80% to make a profit following them blindly, but the reality is that the strike rate for Odds on shots is below 60% and on a downward trend, rather than the commonly held figure of 66%. It therefore comes as no surprise to find that a £100 bet on every Odds on shots would have seen you out of pocket to the tune of at least £3000 every year and over £6000 a year since 2005.

However, the point that I found most revealing fact was that the strike rate for Odds on shots is falling. Between 1998 and 2003 the strike rate was at least 60% in 5 of the 6 years covered, yet in the 7 years since then the highest strike rate achieved was 59.03% (in 2006) and the strike rate has been falling every year since and is now closer to 55% than 60%. It would appear that Odds on shots are becoming less reliable, but why should this be?

I believe the main contributory factor is the considerable increase in the number of races.

Cast your mind back to the early’90’s, there was no Sunday racing, no evening racing and only 3 All weather courses with a limited schedule. Unless it was a Saturday it wasn’t at all unusual to have more than two meetings a day, now it’s a rare day when less than 3 meetings are scheduled and it’s the standard, rather than the exception now to have at least 5 or 6 meetings a day in the Summer. The quality of the racing has been diluted and I believe this has led to more false short priced favourites, which is good news for the Layers, but not the backers.


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