Free racing tips August

Free racing tips August

The old thread was beginning to get a bit cluttered and after a very successful July it makes sense to start a new thread for August.

The batteries are fully recharged after a short break, so here's hoping for a good August.

Mick Easterby likes having winners at Newcastle.

Old Man Clegg 2.10 Newcastle 4/1

Hoofalong 2.40 Newcastle 11/10

Oilstrike 3.40 Newcastle 14/1

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The last 3 runners in Nurseries:

Black Annis Bower 14/1 1st

Bellemere 4/1 2nd

Bellemere 9/2 1st

Hoofalong has an obvious chance in the 2.40 and Oil Strike could well make the frame at 14/1.

All the best Mark

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Comments 13 comments

markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

You just knew it was going to be one of those days yesterday when the first one missed the break and the 2nd one was withdrawn.

Busy old day today:

Northern Star 2.10 Haydock 8/1 E/W

Taayel 2.30 Yarmouth 7/4

Maastricht 3.50 Brighton 4/1

Abishena 4.20 Brighton 6/1 (suspect)

Tallevu 5.10 Haydock 7/1 E/W

===============================================

Tom Dascombe 2 and 3 yos Haydock 20/1

Northern Star 2.10 Haydock 8/1

Tallevu 5.10 Haydock 7/1

Tom Dascombe has had 20 winners from the 96 runners he has sent to local course Haydock for a 36% return

His 2 and 3 yo runners priced 20/1 or less won 17 of their 56 races for an 126% return and 15 of the 36 ridden by Richard Kingscote won for a 201% return. 10 of the 18 2 yos ridden by Kingscote that went off at 20/1 or shorter won for a 370% return.

Both ridden by Richard Kingscote today.

=============================================

Gosden Yarmouth Favourites

Taayel 2.30 Yarmouth 7/4

The record has been particularly good since 2007.

28 from 118 for a 20% return.Outright favourites won 13 from 20 for a 31% return.Early market favourite on debut.

=============================================

Mark Johnston Brighton within 21 days 6/1 or less - 12 from 32 for a 50% return.

Maastricht 3.50 Brighton 7/2

Abishena 4.20 Brighton 6/1

8 from 18 in handicaps for an 83% return

5 from 10 in August for a 90% return

Fallon 2 from 3

8 from 19 finished in the first 3 lto which bodes well for Mastricht but not Abishena.

===============================================

Personally I'll be doing the Daascombe pair E/W, I'll back Taayel if it goes off as favourite. I like the look of Maastricht, but I think I'll give Abishena a miss.

All the best Mark.


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

Lea Valley Black 2.40 Wolverhampton

Chookie Avon 2.50 Ayr

Santefisio 3.20 Ayr

Frequency 4.50 Ayr

Exceedexpectations 6.35 Yarmouth

Kashgar 8.05 Yarmouth

========================================================================

Lea Valley Black 2.40 Wolverhampton 100/30

Tom Dascombe - AW non handicaps priced 9/1 or less.

68 from 208 for a 15% return

Two in this race and as Lea Valley Black is ridden by stable jock Richard Kingscote and trading much shorter he looks like the one to concentrate on.

Richard Kingscote 57 from 155 for a 21% return.

30 from 92 at Wolverhampton for a 20% return.

27 from 100 with 2 yos.

All but 2 of the winners came from the top 3 in the market (2 from 29 from outside.)

Chookie Avon 2.50 Ayr 11/2

Santefisio 3.20 Ayr 9/2

Frequency 4.50 Ayr 8/1

Keith Dalglish- Ayr Handicaps 9/1 or less.

Keith Dalgleish has made a successful transition from Jockey to trainer in the past two years and apart from the 14 Handicap wins at Wolverhampton, the majority of the turf wins have come in Scotland. 20 of the wins have come North of the border and the record is particularly good at Ayr in handicaps (14 from 64 for a 44% return)

The runners that went off at 9/1 or shorter at Ayr won 13 from 41 for a 53% return and in 3 yo plus handicaps it was 10 from 28 for a 78% return.

Runners returning within 14 days won 10 from 23 for a 114% return.

All three runners fit the profile today.

Exceedexpectations 6.35 Yarmouth 6/5

Kashgar 8.05 Yarmouth 9/2

Bell at Yarmouth since 2006 priced 4/1 or shorter.

25 from 56 for a 36% return

11 from 20 in sprints

11 from 31 in handicaps for a 23% roi

3 yos - 13 from 23

6 from 11 in 3yo races


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

Yesterday was certainly a day to please the bank manager with three decent priced winners.

Mark Johnston has an outstanding record at Beverley.

Mudaawem is a debutant and I will only be backing him if he goes off at 6/1 or shorter.

Mark Johnston at Beverley since 2003

Bets Wins S/R P/L ROI

403 93 23.08% 68.02 16.88%

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Mudaawem 2.45 Beverley 9/1

2 yo debutants

8 from 37 for a 42% return.

5 from 21 over 7f for a 63% return

7 from 23 priced 6/1 or shorter-1 from 14 when bigger than 6/1

==============================================

Aliante 5.25 Beverley 3/1

Strangely enough the 3 yo handicaps are the Achilles Heel here (12 from 76 for a 19% loss) however only 1 of the 23 runners to go off bigger than 8/1 won.

The market was a good guide 9 of the 34 runners to go off at 4/1 or shorter won and the first 2 in the market won 9 of their 31 races.

All but one of the winners was a 3 yo and the older horses only won 1 of their 11 races. The record was also surprisingly poor in races of less than 10f – 0 from 15.

Aliante avoids all of the above negatives and although a 10 race maiden, was unlucky not to win LTO.

All the best Mark


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

Mudaawem was too big a price to back yesterday but the sole selection Aliante won nicely at 4/1.

Mark Johnston has a further two runners at Beverley today that fit the profile nicely.

Hunting Rights 3.05 Beverley 11/4

Moon Trip 4.10 Beverley Evens

All the best Mark


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

My apologies for the price of the 2nd runner yesterday, the main market rival was a non runner, but nevertheless a good day with 2 from 2.

There are 2 selections for today:

Chosen One 7.45 Catterick 13/2

Wyldfire 2.00 Newcastle 4/1

=============================

Wyldfire - Fahey Juveniles at Newcastle.

The record was particularly good with the juveniles

15 from 38 for a 50% return.

Faves won 9 from 15

Runners priced 4/1 or shorter won 12 from 21

Hanagan 7 from 20

Hamilton 5 from 14 (15% ROI)

Debutants won 4 from 16 with a further 7 placed.

Debutants 3 from 8 when 4/1 or shorter.

Wyldfire holds a Derby entry and not the strongest of races to start his career off, wouldn't need to be anything special to win this by the looks of things.

================================================

Rosemary Carr 3 yo plus HC's at Catterick 9/1 or less.

Chosen One 7.45 Catterick

9 from 29 for a 130% return

5 from 10 when 6/1-9/1

5 from 10 had won in last 3 races all had finished in at least the first 5.

4 of the winners failed to finish in the first 8 LTO

C/D winner who won two runs back and should go well back over 5f today. The one concern is the poor draw.

At the early prices I'll be doing them in a smaller ew double along with a couple of single win bets

All the best Mark


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

Frustrating day yesterday with the Rosemary Carr 2nd string winning at 10/1.

Formidable Guest Lingfield 8.00 11/1 E/W

Formidable Guest hasn't won for over 2 years but has run well in her last 2 races. Although she's an 8 yo now that mark of 53 is looking tempting, when you consider the last win came in Class 4 race off a mark of 72. She has won 4 times over this CD and being a hold up horse will need to get the breaks down the straight, but if Cape Joy runs the same way as last week this race should be run at a true pace.

Looks a decent EW bet at the price to me.


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

Thirsk Fahey non handicaps priced 9/1 or less.

Anderton 2.00 Thirsk 4/1

Done Dreaming 2.30 Thirsk 7/4

The Fahey yard have had 35 winners at Thirsk since 2003, but the record was poor up until 2007 and has improved markedly since then, or maybe I should have said the record has improved in Non handicaps, especially if the runners went off at a single figure SP.

Since 2007 priced 9/1 or less:

Breakdown Bets Wins SR PL Places PlaceStrike ROI

Handicap 65 7 11% -30.50 17 26% -46.92%

Non-Handicap 52 18 35% 32.80 17 33% 63.08%

Eighteen winners from only 52 runners for an impressive 63% ROI.

The juveniles had a good record as did the debutants .

Paul Hanagan (11 from 28) and Tony Hamilton (7 from 16) rode every winner.

Four of the winners finished outside of the first five LTO, so don’t be surprised to see a much improved run.

Fahey won the 2.00 race last year.

Two runners go in the 2.30 but as Hanagan is on the favourite you have to feel that is the one the stable fancy.

All the best Mark


Racing detective 4 years ago

Layla's Dancer (GB) 1 4.50

Bridle Belle 1 4.00

Corsicanrun 2 1.00

Lexington Spirit 1 6.00

I see where you are coming from with D grade at Thirsk


Racing Detective 4 years ago

Fahey definitely better with his 2yo mdn fillies at Thirsk though.

As you say he won the race last year with a filly.


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

Thanks RD, the feedback is much appreciated.

We’ve hit a bit of a sticky patch at the moment which is always going to happen at the prices of the selections, but hopefully Amistress will get us back on the winning track today. I really like the look of this one.

A couple from Mark Johnston to follow.

==============================================

Eve Houghton Johnson Brighton handicaps priced 9/1 or shorter.

Amistress 3.15 Brighton 4/1

10 winners from 38 runners in Handicaps in single figures for a 41% return is a decent record, but 9 of those winners have come in the past 2 years at Brighton from only 27 runners for a very healthy 72% return.

The record was particularly good in the lesser races - 8 from 23 in class 5 and Class 6 races and the 4yos were the age group to follow (4 from 8 for a 75% return.)

The market was a good guide (6 from 11, when from the first 2 in the market) and the runners at the top of the card did well (8 from 17 when in the top 3 in the weights.)

Cathy Gannon won 3 from 8 for a 47% return and all the winners were returning within 45 days.

Amistress:

3 wins on the Going

Catherine Gannon-3 from 12 on the horse.

2 wins at the distance

3 wins in the grade

2 from 2 when returning within 7 days.

All 4 wins have come at Left handed tracks.

Amistress loves to hear her hooves rattle, all 4 wins have come on either G/Firm or Firm ground. She has been dropped 9lbs in the weights so far this season and showed a return to form 7 days ago when 3rd at Bath on ground that wasn’t ideal. The handicapper has left her alone for that 2 lengths defeat and she is now 5lb well in compared to her last win last summer.

Statistically ideal and the conditions are ideal; I like the look of Amistress today.


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

Mark Johnston - Brighton within 21 days 6/1 or less

12 from 32 for a 50% return.

8 from 18 in handicaps for an 83% return.

5 from 10 in August for a 90% return

Favourites 6 from 14

Top weights 6 from 12 for a 77% return

8 from 19 finished in the first 3 lto

Chatterati doesn’t fit the profile that well in the 3.15

Ukranian Brighton 3.45

Ukranian was an impressive winner LTO when the blinkers appeared to do the job. Handicapper has been kind and good chance if he handles Brighton’s twists and turns.

All the best Mark


Racing Detective (aka Pinza) 4 years ago

Ukranian quite well entered up in class 4 hcps next few days. The penalty brings almost to the mark after his maiden win at Wolver - after which he didn't do much until the blinkers were fitted. He is certainly the one to back in the race as both his wins on similar LH tracks and MJ does well here in 3yo hcps 10 & 12f with his male runners

MCELDOWNEY 1

Captain Webb (GB) 1

Bocciani (GER) 5

Timocracy (GB) 1

Shirataki 8

Plattsburgh 1

(McEldowney won todays race)


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

Hi Pinza.

Backed off the board, but folded very tamely

All the best Mark

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