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The Cerarewich

The Cesarewitch

Newmarket 3.35 - Very Good day 28/1 5 places with Bet 365 and BetVictor.

14 renewals since 1997, a 3 yo plus Class 2 Handicap over 2m 2f:

The Cesarewitch is one of the hardest staying puzzles to solve during the flat campaign.

Dual purpose horses have a good record in the race, and only one three-year-old has won in the past 14 years. Three of the last four winners priced at 16/1, 25/1 and 50/1!

Stats since 1997.

Only 2 of the 16 favourites won.

Only 2 of the 30 runners to go off at 8/1 or shorter won (only 7 of them placed.)

Only 4 of the 71 runners from the first 4 in the market won, although 15 of them made the frame. Over half of the winners came from runners between 5th and 9th in the market, Although 2 of the winners went off at bigger than 20/1, just under 300 runners went off at exalted prices and by far the most productive price range was between 17/2 and 20/1. This price range produced 2/3rds of the winners (10 from 134, 13% SR.)

Runners aged 7 or older won 1/5th of the races but the 3 winners came from 99 runners, which represented a poor 3% SR, furthermore only 5 of the older runners managed to make the frame.

The 6 yo runners had the best SR winning 5 of the 14 renewals from only 75 runners, furthermore another nine 6yos made the frame.

Although the 4 yos won 3 of the renewals, a whopping 147 have run in the race since 1997 and although only 1 of the 106 5 yos won, 13 of them placed.

Forget lightly weighted horses only 1 of the 122 runners to carry less than 7-13 won and only 8 of them made the frame.

Only 1 of the 150 runners rated 82 or less won, although 15 of the runners rated between 78 -82 made the frame.

Only 1 winner carried 9-7 or more and only 2 of them placed, but only 24 horses attempted the feat. More relevant is the fact that 71 runners rated 96 or bigger won only 3 races and only 1 of the 40 runners to be rated 99 or more won, with only 5 of them placing.

All but 5 of the winners were either rated the same as their last race or were rated no more than 2lb higher, all but two of the winners were rated between 2 lb less and 4 lb more.

The top 4 in the weights won only 2 from 65; runners from outside the top 20 in the weights only won 1 race.

All 14 winners carried at least 3 lb more than for their last win. All but 3 of the winners carried between 3-11 lb more than their last win.

Just under half of the winners carried between 1-10 lbs less than the top weight, any lower in the ratings and the strike rate drops off drastically.

The draw: Runners from stalls 1-4 won 5 renewals; runners from stalls 28-36 only won one renewal and that was from stall 36, only 2 of the winners came from stall 25 or higher.

Only 3 of the winners came from stall 20 or higher.

Irish bred runners had by far the best record winning 8 renewals from 173 entrants and a further 18 placing.

The occasional runner dropping 3 or 4 Classes had a very good record, winning 3 of their 13 races.

All 43 runners who failed to finish in the first 5 in their last 3 races failed to win and only 4 of them made the frame, so don’t look for a plot horse.

All but 4 of the winners had finished in the first 2 and half of them had won a race.

The 45 runners with more than 5 runs in the past 90 days all lost and only 1 of the 107 runners with 4 runs won.

Only 1 of the 77 horses to have had less than 5 runs in the past 365 days won and only 4 of them made the frame, 5 – 10 runs was the optimum.

All 18 runners with less than 6 career runs lost; only 2 of the 87 runners with less than 11 career runs won and only 8 of them made the frame.

Of the winners attempting the distance for the first time, all 14 winners had raced over the trip no more than once, all 63 with more than 1 run over the dist lost.

All 60 runners to have run in less than 5 handicaps lost and only 4 of them made the frame.

Runners who had run in between 5-10 handicaps had the best record.

All but 2 of the winners raced over 2m- 2m2f LTO.

All but 3 of the winners finished in the first 5 LTO.

Initial shortlist:

Less than 33/1 early doors

Runners aged 7 or younger.

Runners rated 100 or higher

Drawn 28 or higher

Finished in the first 3 in previous 3 races.

At least 6 career runs

At least 5 runs in handicaps

That leaves us with rather a long shortlist, however, Tominator and Hurricane Higgins are rated in the high 90’s. Beyond, Countrywide fame, Kepler’s Law and Montaser all come from outside the top 20 in the weights.

Which leaves us with Very Good day, who is currently a best priced 28/1 and would need and bests fit the winning profile.

The recommendation is Very Good day at 28/1 with Bet 365 or Boylesports to 5 places. Very Good day finished 2nd in a Class 2 handicap at York 52 days ago, despite not getting a clear run and has only been raised 2 lb for that effort. He looks to have been saved for this race, the stall 20 draw means that he should be able to race with the group down the middle.

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