Is Rafa really doing so badly?

Yes, he is.

Rafa said in his press conference yesterday that we are now a better team, who are scoring more goals and conceding less, I've devised a system that assesses how well a team are doing compared to the quality of the opposition.PDQ doesn’t stand for Pretty Damn quick in this instance although it does support the fans argument that Chelsea should be getting rid of Rafa sooner rather than later.

It stands for Performance Determinant Quotient and it’s a system I devised, originally to help me with my football bets, because I was sick of the pathetic tables the papers and Sky Sports use supposedly showing how well a manager has performed, purely on percentage wins, which is meaningless as they do not take into account the quality of the opposition. I had never named my performance system before which attempts to show how well managers do based upon the strength of the operation, for the purpose of this article I’ve given it the really posh sounding title of Performance Determinant Quotient (or PDQ) which will give it far more credibility in most people’s eyes than HCRRII, otherwise known as - How Crap Rafa Really Is Index.

Glasgow Rangers illustrate the problem perfectly, if Rangers had appointed a new manager at the start of the season he would have looked like Clough, Fergie and Guardiola rolled into one, because Rangers are playing pub sides every week rather than every other week. Ally McCoist may have a league win ratio in the 90’s this season, but the fact that Barnsley have approached Terry Butcher rather than McCoist to be their new manager shows what the footballing world thinks of McCoist’s managerial abilities in context to his wonderful win ratio.

The PDQ isn’t perfect or scientific, because assessing how good your opponents are is an inexact science, but given a full list of opponents a manager has faced allows anyone to compile their own HCRRI, sorry, PDQ. Award a difficulty allowance for each game on a scale of 1-10. Award 2 points for a win and 1 point for a draw and multiply the two numbers. Reverse the scale for a loss and multiply by 2 points for each loss. For instance an away win against Barca is worth 20 points but a loss would be -2 points.

Di Matteo
 
Res
Comp
Difficulty
PDQ Score
Birmingham
A
W
FACP
6
12
Stoke City
H
W
PREM
6
12
Napoli
H
W
CPLG
8
16
Leicester City
H
W
FACP
5
10
Manchester City
A
L
PREM
9
-4
Tottenham
H
D
PREM
8
8
Benfica
A
W
CPLG
8
16
Aston Villa
A
W
PREM
6
12
Benfica
H
W
CPLG
7
14
Wigan Athletic
H
W
PREM
5
10
Fulham
A
D
PREM
6
6
Tottenham
A
W
FACP
8
16
Barcelona
H
W
CPLG
9
18
Arsenal
A
D
PREM
8
8
Barcelona
A
D
CPLG
10
10
QPR
H
W
PREM
6
12
Newcastle
H
L
PREM
7
-8
Liverpool
A
W
FACP
8
16
Liverpool
A
L
PREM
8
-6
Blackburn
H
W
PREM
5
10
Bayern Munich
A
W
CPLG Final
9
18
 
 
 
 
 
 
Manchester City
N
L
FACS
8
-6
Wigan Athletic
A
W
PREM
6
12
Reading
H
W
PREM
5
10
Newcastle
H
W
PREM
7
14
Atletico Madrid
N
L
USC
8
-6
QPR
A
D
PREM
6
6
Juventus
H
D
UCL
7
7
Stoke City
H
W
PREM
6
12
Wolves
H
W
LGCP
5
10
Arsenal
A
W
PREM
8
16
FCNordsjaelland
A
W
UCL
6
12
Norwich City
H
W
PREM
6
12
Tottenham
A
W
PREM
8
16
S Donetsk
A
L
UCL
9
-4
Man Utd
H
L
PREM
9
-4
Man Utd
H
W
LGCP
9
18
Swansea City
A
D
PREM
7
7
S Donetsk
H
W
UCL
8
16
Liverpool
H
D
PREM
7
7
WBA
A
L
PREM
6
-10
Juventus
A
L
UCL
8
-6
 
 
 
 
Ave Score
8.214285714
Rafa Benitez
 
Res
Comp
Difficulty
PDQ score
Manchester City
H
D
PREM
8
8
Fulham
H
D
PREM
6
6
West Ham Utd
A
L
PREM
6
-10
FCNordsjaelland
H
W
UCL
4
8
Sunderland
A
W
PREM
6
12
Monterrey
A
W
FCWC
3
6
Corinthians
A
L
FCWC
8
-6
Leeds United
A
W
LGCP
5
10
Aston Villa
H
W
PREM
6
12
Norwich City
A
W
PREM
7
14
Everton
A
W
PREM
8
16
QPR
H
L
PREM
4
-14
Southampton
A
W
FACP
6
12
Swansea City
H
L
LGCP
6
-10
 
 
 
 
Ave score
4.57

Rafa’s performance rating is of 4.5 is very poor in comparison to Di Matteo’s rating of 8.2 and before anyone accuses me of a Di Matteo bias I have upgraded the difficulty of some of Rafa’s games when I thought the mark was borderline.

Rafa has been in charge of 8 premier league games so far and when he took charge Chelsea were only 4 points behind leaders Man City, having just had a difficult run of games. Apart from Man city (who had just been knocked out of the Champions league) and Everton (struggling with Injuries and suspensions to key players) all of the other teams Chelsea have played were outside of the top 8 in the table. Their positions were: 10th, 10th, 10th, 14th,17th and 20th in the table and in the days before Benitez took over, a return of less than 15 points in those six games against such weak opposition would have been considered disappointing. To get only 10 from a possible 18 is positively disastrous and has effectively ended any chances of winning the title.

Compare that to the previous 8 league games that cost Di Matteo the sack; Unlucky to lose to league leaders Man United with 9 men and a winner that was offside; wins against Stoke and Norwich supplemented victories against high flying Spurs and Arsenal. The defeat against West Brom was disappointing, but they were flying high in 5th place at the time; draws against Liverpool and Swansea were disappointing mainly because leads slipped in both games.

Whether you agree with my difficulty ratings or not, the fact is that the difference in the figures is so huge that even if Rafa himself had compiled the table it would still show that Rafa is doing a horrendously inferior job to Di Matteo. Add the poor performance in the World Club Championship and the fact that we will need a small miracle now to reach the Capital One final and his short lived tenure can only be seen as terribly disappointing so far. His arguement that we are scoring more goals and conceding less is a misleading one because we are not doing so in the games that matter. We failed to score against QPR, Swansea, Corinthians and Man City. In effect we have Gooners malaise, we have become flat track bullies who terrorise poor teams, but struggle when it matters. United aren't dominating, but grinding out results, we are playing better football than United in half of our games, but one look at the table and the trophy cabinet shows tells you all you need to know.

Rafa asked the fans to judge him on results and trophies won and so far the jury isn’t out, it has already returned and given a unanimous verdict of guilty on all counts. It's eight years since Arsenal won a trophy and until we get rid of the Gooners malaise Rafa has inflicted us with we won't be winning anything either.

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