The Cheltenham Festival - oppose short priced favourites.

No such thing as a certainty at the Festival.

Like Robert Frost I prefer to choose a path less trodden, which means that a lot of the selections will be big prices and many of you will think I’m crazy for opposing a good thing. Believe me there is no such thing as a good thing at The Festival.

Annie Power has been backed as if defeat is out of the question next week, despite the fact that she is unproven at the trip and is up against one of racing’s all time greats, but consider the following list if you intend to back a short priced runner at the festival:

Oops!

Date Horse Odds Position
14.03.2013 First Lieutenant (IRE) 2/1. 2nd/8
14.03.2013 Dynaste (FR) 11/8. 2nd/13
13.03.2013 Pont Alexandre (GER) 6/4. 3rd/8
12.03.2013 My Tent Or Yours (IRE) 15/8. 2nd/12
16.03.2012 Long Run (FR) 7/4. 3rd/14
16.03.2012 Boston Bob (IRE) 6/5. 2nd/20
14.03.2012 Sizing Europe (IRE) 4/5. 2nd/8
14.03.2012 Grands Crus (FR) 6/4. 4th/9
13.03.2012 Hurricane Fly (IRE) 4/6. 3rd/10
17.03.2011 Poquelin (FR) 2/1. 4th/11
16.03.2011 Master Minded (FR) 2/1. 8th/11
16.03.2011 Time For Rupert (IRE) 7/4. 5th/12
15.03.2011 Cue Card 7/4. 4th/15
19.03.2010 Kauto Star (FR) 8/11. F/11
17.03.2010 Master Minded (FR) 4/5. 4th/9
16.03.2010 Dunguib (IRE) 4/5. 3rd/18
12.03.2009 Kasbah Bliss (FR) 10/11. 4th/14
12.03.2009 Voy Por Ustedes (FR) 4/5. 2nd/10
10.03.2009 LAmi (FR) 7/4. 2nd/16
10.03.2009 Binocular (FR) 6/4. 3rd/23
14.03.2008 Kauto Star (FR) 10/11. 2nd/12
14.03.2008 Franchoek (IRE) Evens 2nd/14
11.03.2008 Ashkazar (FR) 15/8. 2nd/22
Recent beaten short priced favourites at the Festival.

Look to bigger priced runners.

The above runners were considered good things and went off at 2/1 or shorter in some of the most competitive races of the year. Most of them went close, but only Kauto Star was a faller, which tells us that Hype takes over the Festival and it’s not just the unexposed Novices. The above list contains modern greats such as Kauto Star (twice), Hurricane fly and Master Minded, which just goes to prove that any horse can be beaten at the Festival and if you want to make a profit at the Festival you need to take a chance with the bigger priced runners.

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