Today's free racing tips.

Today's free tips Tuesday May 8

Trainer Brian Ellison is based in Norton in North Yorkshire and has had a great deal of success at his nearest all Weather course which is Southwell.
Southwell is different from the other All weather courses which are Polytrack based, rather than the Fibresand of Southwell.


81 winners at a strike rate of 30% for a return of 22% means that a Brian Ellison runner at Southwell is always worth a 2nd look. The stable have sent 5 runners to the Nottingham track today and 4 of them look to have a decent chance of winning.

Young Barry McHugh takes the rides for the stable today and he has ridden 28 winners for the stable (24% SR). 23 of those wins have come at Southwell from only 72 rides (27% ROI).

The following horses could go well today:
Lakeman 2.45 Southwell 11/2
Feeling Good 4.15 Southwell 7/4
Travis County 4.45 Southwell 11/2
Lindoro 5.15 Southwell 10/11

All the best Mark

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Comments 31 comments

markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

May 9

A winner and two 2nds yesterday.

(Lily Agnes) Chester 1.35

(Figures since 1997)

It's the Lily Agnes at Chester today, the first Class 2 race of the season for the 2 year old juvenile runners.

The first thing to say is that Chester is a small oval course and has the tightest curves in the country which means that runners that have a low draw have a huge advantage. If we look at the last fifteen runners of the race we can see that only 1 winner was drawn higher than stall 6 and only 4 runners drawn higher than 6 even made the frame.

The 2nd thing to note is that being the first high quality race of the season, debutants and runners who contested low quality races prior to racing here struggled in this better class.

Runners who contested a Class 3 - Class 5 race last time out provided all but four of the winners and runners who either won of came 2nd in a Class 4 race prior to contesting this race had a very good record, winning 7 of the last 15 races from only 48 runners.

Runners who finished outside of the first 4 prior to racing here really struggled, but perhaps more importantly runners who were beaten by more than 2 lengths LTO failed to win all but one of the last 15 renewals.

Shortlist

Dreamy Ciara: beaten 6 lengths in a Class 3 at Salisbury on G/Soft.

Just Past Andover: Won bt 9 lengths at Yarmouth in a Class 5 Auction Maiden on heavy.

Tharawal Lady won a Class 5 Auction Maiden at Beverley on Soft.

All Fur Coat ran Tassel to a length at Newmarket last time out and until that one returned lame on Saturday she was considered by the Hannon yard as one of their best juveniles and was earmarked for Royal Ascot.

Runners coming into this race from Newmarket did well (3 from 12) and if All fur Coat handles the extra bit of juice in the ground she looks to be the value to me (7/1 with Hills) from a good low draw. Jo Hughes isn't a well known trainer, but she is the partner of Paul Blockley and any money for the horse would definitely be a positive sign given it's connections.

All the best Mark


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

"Jo Hughes isn't a well known trainer, but she is the partner of Paul Blockley and any money for the horse would definitely be a positive sign given it's connections."

Advised at 7/1; won nicely at 9/2.

All the best Mark


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

Keith Dalglish Ayr Handicaps 9/1 or shorter

Keith Dalgleish has made a successful transition from Jockey to trainer in the past two years and apart from the 21 Handicap wins at Wolverhampton, the majority of the turf wins have come in Scotland. Twelve of the wins have come North of the border and the record is particularly good at Ayr (7 from 40 for a 62% return)

All but one of those wins came in 3 yo plus handicaps and only 1 of the 19 runners to go off at a double figure price won.

The runners that went off at 9/1 or shorter won 6 from 24 for a 50% return and in 3 yo plus handicaps it was 5 from 15 for a 100% return.

The record is also good in 4 yo plus races and the stable have two runners in the handicaps at Ayr today who should be suited by today's conditions and both are reasonably weighted.

Chookie Royale 3.30 Ayr

Luctor Emergo 4.30 Ayr


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

Sir Michael Stoute runners in Windsor maidens priced 6/1 or shorter.

Sir Michael is 36 from 91 in maidens at Windsor priced 6/1 or shorter.

27 of the 48 favourites won.

The 3 yo favourites won 24 from 37.

13 of the 16 female runners at Windsor won.

10 from 15 with 2 previous runs won.

Windsor 7.40 Proximity Hills/Ladbrokes 4/1

This is a 3-4 yo fillies maiden

Proximity gets the 9lb WFA allowance as a 3 yo. She was a running on 4th over this C/D a month ago, she was green on the day, but ran on well when the penny dropped late on. A better run is expected today.

Sir Henry's All Time is the early favourite, but she looks vulnerable and her last race isn't working out well.

It would come as no surprise to see Proximity take advantage of her 9lb weight allowance today.

All the best Mark.


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

A good day yesterday with Luctor Emergo and Proximity winning .

The racing is poor today and nothing stands out.

All the best Mark


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

There is one selection today.

Born To Surprise is a classy horse and had Classic aspirations and takes a drop in class today. Michael Bell has a very good record at Yarmouth with his fancied runners under the right conditions.

Michael Bell runners at Yarmouth since 2006:

4.10 Yarmouth Born to Surprise Hills/Ladbrokes 4/1

34 from 162 for a 12% return.

(30 from 96 in single figures for a 21% return)

The 3 yo runners won 18 from 55 for a 47% return.

Jamie Spencer was 10 from 37 when he rode for the stable.

The runners Priced 4/1 or shorter.

24 from 52 for a 41% return

The 3 yo runners won 12 from 20

4 from 11 for a 16% return in 3 yo plus races.


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

3.10 Newbury Firebeam 15/2 Powers/Hills/BetVictor.

The Hackwood is a well establish Group 3 race open to runners aged three and upwards and the younger generations have dominated; the 3 and 4 yo runners have won all but 3 of the last 15 renewals (Older runners 3 from 66).

Early favourite Maarek has to contend with a 4lb penalty for his Group win last time out and he is a 5 yo. Firebeam and Morache Music are the only 2 representatives of the younger generation. Morache Music has gone backwards since a win in the Shergar Cup where he had Firebeam 3 lengths behind. However the ground could suit today and if the visor has an effect, he could make the frame at a big price.

Soul could be the bigger danger dropped in Class and back on Soft ground, however Soul is also a 5 yo; furthermore, only one winner in the last 15 years has managed to win having failed to make the frame in its 3 previous races, so statistically Soul is up against it.

Firebeam looks like a cracking EW bet to me at the price.

When returning within 60 days the record is 3 1 3 1 1

The record on Soft and G/Soft reads 1 3 1 2; The Going is now officially Heavy and being out of Cadeux Genereux there is every chance he will handle the extra cut in the ground.

He did well to go down by less than a length to Red Jazz on his seasonal debut in a Listed race at Haydock and ran well LTO in a group 3 at Longchamps. That was over 7f on Good ground and he led until fading over the final furlong.

The one stat that bothers me is that runners coming back to 6 furlongs in this race only won 1 of their 27 races.However over half of those 27 runners went off at a double figure price and five of the runners to go off at 4/1 or shorter either won or placed.

William Haggas has a remarkable record with his runners at Newbury this year that went off at 9/1 or shorter in non handicaps (not including juveniles.)

Guarantee 100/30 1st/12

Well Painted 15/2 1st/17

Valiant 8/1 1st/10

Sun Central 9/2 3rd/12

Harris Tweed 6/4 1st/5

Seventh Sign 9/1 11th/14

Vow 11/2 1st/14

Sentaril 15/2 1st/18

Firebeam has run his best races on rain softened ground and his breeding suggests that today’s conditions shouldn’t be a problem; at the early 15/2 he looks like a decent EW bet to me.

All the best Mark


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

John Bridger has done particularly well with his older runners at Brighton, particularly since 2009 if they went off at 12/1 or shorter.

He runs Pharoh Jake in the 2.15 race today.

Male runners 5 from 11 for an 80% roi

All but 2 of the winners finished in first 5 LTO

7 from 27 when returning within 14 days.

All the best Mark


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

6.10 Epsom Epsom Salts 12/1 EW Hills

Epsom Salts ideally needs a good surface to be at his best and form figures of 877770 hardly inspire confidence, the handicapper has hardly been kind by dropping the horse only 4lb in his last five races. He needs a test of stamina these days and the last win came over 2 miles so it comes as something of a surprise, or does it, that four of his last 5 races have been over no further than 10 furlongs.

He returns to Epsom today the scene of 3 of his 4 turf wins and is back over the trip that all 3 of his c/d wins came over.

This is a amateur ladies race and the Post say that there are no previous renewals but I've managed to find three from the past three years and two of those three renewals were won by Serena Brotherton.

Brotherton is the four-time national lady amateur­champion jockey - no mean feat for someone who has a legal day job and even more impressive when you consider that Brotherton did not take up riding until after her 21st birthday. She won the first of her titles in 2005 and last season put in her best performance, finishing with eight winners to claim her fourth amateur crown.

These ameteur races are often won by the best jocks, especially when the course is as tricky as the Epsom Derby course and the booking of Brotherton is eye catching, especially as she won this race on Epsom Salts two years ago.

O Ma Lad and Shesha Bear head the betting. Shesha Bear loves it around Epsom, but may now be in the grip of the handicapper and O Ma Lad has a young jock on board and the horse has never raced at Epsom before, furthermore he isn't particularly well handicapped.

The Going is described as G/Soft, Good in places and I think Epsom Salts may have been laid out for this race and the jockey alone is a huge bonus on this ultra tricky course. It would come as no surprise to see Epsom Salts run a big race and at the early 12/1 he looks like a decent E/W bet.


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

Epsom Salts wins at 12/1.

Serena Brotherton will you marry me? - a peach of a ride and I managed to get 14/1 with Ladbrokes early doors.


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

2.30 On the Bias e/w (14/1 BetVictor 12/1 Hills.)

Brian Meehan's record at Ripon is Okay but not outstanding, until you realise that the 15 runners in handicaps all lost.

The runners in non handicaps won 8 of their 21 races for a 111% return. All but 1 of the winners was a 2 yo (7 from 14 - 156% ROI)

From the Brian Meehan site.

"Stormy Atlantic filly proved very green on her Newmarker debut. She will know more about it this time and could go well in what is sure to be an easier race.

All the best Mark


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

Deauville Prince Haydock 8.00 Powers 4/1.

Tom Dascombe has had 17 winners from the 93 runners he has sent to local course Haydock for a 36% return.

His 2 and 3 yo runners priced 20/1 or less won 15 of their 54 races for an 116% return and 13 of the 34 ridden by Richard Kingscote won for a 191% return. 9 of the 17 2 yos ridden by Kingscote that went off at 20/1 or shorter won for a 370% return.

Third Half runs in the 7.00 and should go close but the one that really interests me is Deauvile Prince in the 8 O Clock race.

All the best Mark


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

"Third Half runs in the 7.00 and should go close but the one that really interests me is Deauvile Prince in the 8 O Clock race."

Third Half backed into 9/2 form 11/2 and stayed on nicely.

Deauville Prince won cosily.


malcolm 4 years ago

great tipping. Is this hub linked to BETTING SCHOOL which I have only this week subscribed to ???


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

Thanks Malcolm.

It is indeed, Betting school are running a special sign up offer at the moment where new subscribers can sign up for £1 at the following link:

http://www.trainertrends.co.uk.

All the best Mark


Siva 4 years ago

Thanks Mark.

I got both of them . How do I sign for Hub Pages.

Or do I just get the informations from the Betting school as

usual.

Thanks again. Siva


malcolm 4 years ago

I have taken out the £1 Trial thanks. Why were yesterdays HUB selections not on the BETTING SCHOOL site ???


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

Hi Siva.

Good to hear from you again, if you follow the link below it will take you to the sign up page.

https://hubpages.com/user/new

All the best Mark


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

Hi Malcolm.

If you go to the members forum and check out a rather successful thread I've been running called SAStats you'll find it there.

If you have any problems fell free to ask Steve for help he's brilliant.

All the best Mark


Malcolm Miles profile image

Malcolm Miles 4 years ago

thanks....and again, well done


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

Cheers Malcolm.

Master Of Dance 3.05 Ayr 5/1

Luctor Emergo 4.10 Ayr 4/1

Keith Dalgleish has made a successful transition from Jockey to trainer in the past two years and apart from the 21 Handicap wins at Wolverhampton, the majority of the turf wins have come in Scotland. Fourteen of the wins have come North of the border and the record is particularly good at Ayr in handicaps (9 from 46 for a 61% return)

All but one of those wins came in 3 yo plus handicaps and only 1 of the 19 runners to go off at a double figure price won.

The runners that went off at 9/1 or shorter won 8 from 34 for a 33% return and in 3 yo plus handicaps it was 7 from 19 for a 109% return.

Luctor Emergo did us a favour a week ago and has a decent chance carrying a further 5lb and Master of Dance also looks promising up in trip and carrying a 7lb penalty for last weeks win.

The stable are in form and both horses have won when quickly turned out in the past.

All the best Mark


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

Master of Dance went to 2.6 in running but just wasn't good enough.

Luctor Emergo did the job nicely.

All the best Mark


Malcolm Miles profile image

Malcolm Miles 4 years ago

Mark,

why do your selections on here differ from those on BETTING SCHOOL.

For example, you put up SOLAR VIEW on there today.

As you know I am a new subscriber ......and a tad confused. :)

Nice winner with LUCTOR EMERGO !!


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

Hi Malcolm Solar View is my trainer trends selection, which you get as a fully paid up member of Betting school.

Luctor Emergo was put up by myself on the Betting school forum and here as a free tip, so you've just given anyone who stumbles across this site a free tip in Solar View , but I'll forgive you this time...lol.

Hope that clears it up.

All the best Mark


Malcolm Miles profile image

Malcolm Miles 4 years ago

Ah sorry Mark !!!!

What is the difference between the 2 sets of selections??

I am guessing an A list and a B list ???

Very interested in what you are doing with the Trainer Trends. After a bad flat season so far{ I blame the weather!!) I am looking to broaden my portfollio, and your methods have sparked some interest.

PS...sorry ............It won't happen again :)


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

Don't worry about it Malcolm, it wasn't intended maliciously so it's not a problem at all, I just hope you got the early price.

Thanks for the comments about the trainer trends an awful lot of work goes into them. I think most punters have struggled this year with the weather, the trainer trends are usually well up for the year by now, but they are only showing a relatively small profit so far. It's interesting to note that my bank manager has been a lot happier this month since the weather has improved.

If anyone is interested Betting school are running an amazing £1 special offer to have a look around the site, you can sign up at the following link:

http://www.trainertrends.co.uk

All the best Mark


Malcolm Miles profile image

Malcolm Miles 4 years ago

I took the 6/4 Mark. I also backed LUCTOR EMERGO .

On the basis of the Trainers to follow in July, I also backed AMBALA (took13/2 BOG) although strictly not a selection.

All in all a good start to my £1 trial :)

look forward to following you in earnest throughout August.


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

Yarmouth 2 50 Palmette (7/4 widely available)

John Gosden at Yarmouth

The record has been particularly good since 2007 - 28 from 118 for a 20% return.

Outright favourites won 13 from 20 for a 31% return.

Palmette finished 2nd over this C/D in mid June and with the stable flying and William Buick booked to ride Palmette has a good chance of taking this today.


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

Sandown 2.30 Mysterious Man

Balding Sandown 3 yos 6/1 or shorter

12 from 26 with the 3 yo runners

8 from 13 in last 2 years

7 from 10 in July for a 215% return

9 from 18 in handicaps 116% ROI

The stable had a 9/1 winner yesterday and Mysterious Man looks primed to follow up today.

All the best Mark


Malcolm Miles profile image

Malcolm Miles 4 years ago

MYSTERIOUS MAN a Non-Runner Mark.


markfo profile image

markfo 4 years ago from Middlesex, England Author

This blog is getting rather cluttered so I have opened up a new blog for August.

July was a very pleasing month, especially considering the terrible weather. The selections finished 20 points up for the month to SP but 30 point up to BOG, which emphasises the importance of obtaining th best price.

All the best Mark

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