I'm picking Duke too, for the same reasons that Paul states. But as a Duke grad, I may be a little biased. If not Duke, then I think Kansas is the most likely to win. As long as it's not North Carolina (as I said, I'm a Duke grad!).
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I think that Kansas or Ohio State have the best chance based on area and groups but as we know there could be some huge upsets. I Created a printable and writable bracket and put it up on google docs if you want to use it. I made it accesible to the public. Have a great weekend