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Fantasy Win Odds for the 2013 Bank of America 500 from Charlotte

Updated on October 9, 2013
Harvick and Family will be back to try and win their second Chase race in a row
Harvick and Family will be back to try and win their second Chase race in a row | Source

The Chase reaches its halfway point with the Bank of America 500 this Saturday night in Charlotte. After the debacle last week in Kansas, the teams get a chance not only to return to a tire they know well but for most it will be a “home” event. Drivers and crews will have the chance to sleep in their own beds the night before the race and will have all day to prepare for a Chase race under the lights. Matt Kenseth maintained his points lead over Jimmie Johnson but several drivers gained on the leader after his 11th place finish last week. Will that trend continue or will JGR's intermediate track dominance continue at the hub for all things NASCAR?


Before going any further, a quick note. We'll be looking at the statistics over the past ten races, all courtesy of racing-reference.com. Going any further back takes us into fourth generation cars and a completely different race environment in terms of competition on the track. We're also in no way advocating gambling in any way shape or form. These odds are purely for informational purposes only. Finally we're not including start and parks or other backmarkers that have no realistic chance of winning without a restrictor plate. These are all cars from among NASCAR's top tier teams.

Finish to the 2012 Bank of America 500

Busch is just happy to leave Kansas in the rear view mirror
Busch is just happy to leave Kansas in the rear view mirror | Source

The Favorites:

Driver: Kyle Busch

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing

Odds of Winning: 6-1

Joe Gibbs Racing has been the team to beat at the intermediate tracks this year. The combination of TRD engines and Gibbs chassis has been nearly unbeatable. Busch has three of his four 2013 wins at these kinds of tracks. Yes, Busch struggled last weekend at Kansas with three spins (the final of which ended his day with a 34th place finish). But it's those very struggles that make him the man to beat this weekend. Busch is on a mission to prove that he's a legitimate contender this year and a motivated Kyle Busch tends to make races very one sided. He's also got six top five finishes in the last ten Charlotte races. So long as he can mentally focus on the task at hand he'll be in victory lane this weekend.


Driver: Matt Kenseth

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing

Odds of Winning: 8-1

Everything said about JGR for Kyle Busch also applies to Matt Kenseth. And like Busch, he's coming off a less than stellar finish at Kansas that cut his championship points lead to three points. He also has a win and six top ten finishes over the last ten races at Charlotte. All but one of those finishes came with Roush Fenway Racing, a team that's a step behind JGR right now. He's also beaten teammate Kyle Busch twice to the checkered flag in this year's Chase. The only reason he's ranked behind Busch now is that he'll be less likely to take the big chance it may require to win this weekend.


Driver: Kevin Harvick

Team: Richard Childress Racing

Odds of Winning: 10-1

After winning on the ice rink that was Kansas last weekend, Kevin Harvick is once again a viable championship contender at only 25 points back. He's also shown the ability to beat the Gibbs teams at the intermediate tracks and has won two of the last ten Charlotte races. He's tied with Kenseth with an average finish of 12.3 over the same period. Finally, he has finished all ten of those events, with eight of those being lead lap finishes. Unless he gets caught up in someone else's mess, he'll be around when it counts.

Richard Childress will be losing both Harvick and Burton at the end of the year; can Harvick present him with a title as a going away present?
Richard Childress will be losing both Harvick and Burton at the end of the year; can Harvick present him with a title as a going away present? | Source
Kahne may be out of the championship Chase but he's still a major threat to win at Charlotte
Kahne may be out of the championship Chase but he's still a major threat to win at Charlotte | Source

The Sleepers:

Driver: Kasey Kahne

Team: Hendrick Motorsports

Odds of Winning: 20-1

Thanks to a combination of bad luck and missed setups, Kahne sits dead last in the thirteen car Chase field and has absolutely nothing to lose now. So he'll be willing to take a chance on tires or fuel should the opportunity present itself. Meanwhile, Charlotte is one of his better tracks going all the way back to the Evernham Motorsports days. He has a win and the second highest average finish over the last ten Charlotte events (9.9)- not to mention five top five finishes. If the Hendrick teams have unlocked the key to beating JGR at the intermediate tracks, Kahne is the driver to get it done.


Driver: Joey Logano

Team: Penske Racing

Odds of Winning: 25-1

Logano has the highest average finish of any driver at Charlotte lately at 9.6. He also won earlier this year at Michigan, showing that the Ford engines do have enough horsepower to compete at these tracks under the right conditions. And like Kahne, bad luck earlier in the Chase means that he has little to lose and everything to gain right now. The Penske teams have shown their ability to stretch a tank of gas further than anyone else before and they may have the opportunity to do so again here.


Driver: Clint Bowyer

Team: Michael Waltrip Racing

Odds of Winning: 30-1

Few remember that Bowyer is the defending race winner for the fall Charlotte race. But he also has four top tens, a pole start, and has finished all ten of the last races at Charlotte. He struggled last weekend in Kansas with the unfamiliar tire and a relatively new surface. Neither will be a problem Saturday night. With sponsor Five Hour Energy committed for next year, Bowyer can now concentrate on winning races instead of where he'll be next season and he's a great sleeper bet to show it at Charlotte.

Bowyer hasn't had a lot to smile about lately but he's the defending race winner at Charlotte
Bowyer hasn't had a lot to smile about lately but he's the defending race winner at Charlotte | Source
Earnhardt has yet to unlock the secrets of Charlotte
Earnhardt has yet to unlock the secrets of Charlotte | Source

Driver: Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Team: Hendrick Motorsports

Odds of Winning: 200-1

While Earnhardt has run up front and been competitive at most of the other intermediate tracks lately, he hasn't had the same kind of success at Charlotte. His average finish of 26.2 is far and away the worst among the 13 Chasers and it comes over seven spots behind his average start. He also has only 12 laps led over the last nine races here and has finished on the lead lap only three times. If NASCAR's favorite son manages a top ten finish it will be a major accomplishment for the #88.


Driver: Juan Pablo Montoya

Team: Earnhardt Ganassi Racing

Odds of Winning: 175-1

Montoya is in the homestretch of his time in NASCAR and there's little reason to believe he picks up his first oval win at Charlotte. Over the last ten races at Charlotte he has a total of five laps led and only one top ten finish. His team overall hasn't had much success here since Jamie McMurray's win back in 2010. It's far more likely that Montoya will get into an incident with a fellow driver than it is JPM will end the night in victory lane.


Driver: Danica Patrick

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing

Odds of Winning: 170-1

After a season that started with so much promise at Daytona, Danica Patrick's rookie season is sputtering to its conclusion. The nadir may well have been last weekend at Kansas, where Patrick could not finish a single lap before wrecking and taking two other cars with her. What's worse was her obvious confusion and inability to understand why she didn't finish the race. She's driving a car that has the ability to run up front and be competitive. The weak link is behind the wheel and there's no reason to believe that will change this week. Her average finish of 29.5 in two prior Charlotte races understates just how difficult its been at the intermediate events; she's finished a combined 20 laps down.

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Now it's your turn!

Who will win the Bank of America 500 at Charlotte?

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