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Fantasy Win Odds for the 2013 Hollywood Casino 400 in Kansas

Updated on October 4, 2013
Matt Kenseth has taken home the checkered flag at intermediate tracks before this year
Matt Kenseth has taken home the checkered flag at intermediate tracks before this year | Source
Logano and Keselowski are teammates with vastly different records at Kansas
Logano and Keselowski are teammates with vastly different records at Kansas | Source

As expected, Chasers dominated last week's race in Dover and there's every reason to believe that they will do the same again this week in Kansas. The intermediate track rewards cars who have top-end horsepower and reliable engines and that's tailor-made for the top 13. Will the top three continue to separate themselves from the rest of the field? Or will this be the week that a non-Chaser steps up to claim a victory? We'll know for certain in a few short days.


Before going any further, a quick note. We'll be looking at the statistics over the past ten races, all courtesy of racing-reference.com. Going any further back takes us into fourth generation cars and a completely different race environment in terms of competition on the track. We're also in no way advocating gambling in any way shape or form. These odds are purely for informational purposes only.

Watch the 2012 race on YouTube

Johnson won last week at Dover and has a good chance to win again this week at Kansas
Johnson won last week at Dover and has a good chance to win again this week at Kansas | Source

The Favorites:

Driver: Jimmie Johnson

Team: Hendrick Motorsports

Odds of Winning: 4-1

If it's an intermediate track in the Chase you can pretty much pencil Johnson in for a top ten finish. His team has a decade-long track record of excellence at these tracks and there's nothing to suggest that anything will be different in 2013. In the last ten Kansas races, Johnson has two wins, six top five finishes, and landed outside the top ten only once. He's also led over 20% of the laps and finished nearly eight spots higher than he's started. The only question mark will be whether his Hendrick Chevrolet has the horsepower necessary to keep up with the Toyotas.


Driver: Matt Kenseth

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing

Odds of Winning: 6-1

With seven wins to date this season, Kenseth is a threat to win for nearly every race remaining in 2013. Moreover, the Toyotas have easily outclassed their competition in terms of sheer horsepower and Kansas is a track that puts a premium on top end speed. Kenseth also has a great history here with two wins and five top five finishes over the last ten races- all while leading over 15% of the laps run. His biggest concern is engine reliability; he's lost more than one race this season due to an engine that couldn't hold up over the long haul.


Driver: Greg Biffle

Team: Roush Fenway Racing

Odds of Winning: 13-1

Kansas is a make or break track for Biffle's championship hopes. He needs a win here to start making up ground on the three leaders (Kyle Busch, Johnson and Kenseth). Luckily, Kansas is a place where Biffle has a real chance to win. He has a pair of victories over the past ten Kansas races and averages a finish of 8.9 (second highest in the field). He's also Ford's best shot at a title right now so there's no question that he'll be getting the very best equipment the team and manufacturer can put out.

Can Greg Biffle climb back into the championship chase with another Kansas win
Can Greg Biffle climb back into the championship chase with another Kansas win | Source
Can Keselowski pick up his first win of 2013 at Kansas?
Can Keselowski pick up his first win of 2013 at Kansas? | Source

The Sleepers:

Driver: Brad Keselowski

Team: Penske Racing

Odds of Winning: 25-1

The defending series champion has run seven of the last ten Kansas races and his average finish of 9.3 is third-best behind Johnson and Biffle. He's also won here and scored four top ten finishes while averaging a finish ten full positions better than his starting spot. That number is better than all but one other car. The only thing making Keselowski a sleeper rather than a favorite is the long string of hard luck plaguing both driver and team of late. Teammate Logano is in the Chase and getting the new cars and better equipment while Brad keeps breaking parts and losing time behind the wall.


Driver: Kevin Harvick

Team: Richard Childress Racing

Odds of Winning: 30-1

Harvick is the picture of sold reliability. Over the last ten Kansas races, Kevin has five top ten finishes and eight lead lap finishes. On average, he's finished in eleventh place, over eight spots ahead of where he's started. He probably doesn't have the horsepower to beat the Hendrick and Gibbs teams straight up but if it comes down to fuel mileage or strategy, Harvick has the ability to make both work in his favor and steal a win.


Driver: Carl Edwards

Team: Roush Fenway Racing

Odds of Winning: 45-1

Like RFR teammate Biffle, Edwards has been consistent at the intermediate tracks both overall and this year in particular. He's finished in the top ten in seven of the last ten Kansas races and has gained an average of 7.4 spots over the course of the race. He hasn't led a lot of laps and that's resulted in zero wins over that period but he'll likely be near the front all day long. The potential of long green flag runs at the end of the race may well give him an opportunity to gamble and take home the win.

Edwards hasn't had much to flip about since leaving Richmond three weeks ago
Edwards hasn't had much to flip about since leaving Richmond three weeks ago | Source
Patrick has struggled at many tracks, but the intermediate ovals have been particularly bad for the rookie
Patrick has struggled at many tracks, but the intermediate ovals have been particularly bad for the rookie | Source

The Suckers Bets:

Driver: Danica Patrick

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing

Odds of Winning: 1000-1

While she's run only two races at Kansas, Patrick has a large enough sample size at the intermediate tracks to forecast her chances this week. And those chances aren't good. She's far and away the worst average finisher outside of the start and park efforts, running behind many of the lower-tier teams as well. She's also failed to finish on the lead lap (or lead a single lap) at either of her prior Kansas efforts. None of that bodes well for seeing neon green in victory lane this week.


Driver: Joey Logano

Team: Penske Racing

Odds of Winning: 500-1

Logano's Chase got off to a difficult start thanks to a blown engine at Chicago. With the leaders winning all three Chase races to date, he's continued to lose ground since then. Kansas will likely be more of the same as Logano has failed to lead a lap or finish in the top ten in any of the eight races he's run here. He's also lost an average of 12.6 spots from his starting position over that period and finished on the lead lap only two times. He's run well at some of the other intermediate tracks (and won at Michigan earlier this year) but #22 fans shouldn't expect much this week.


Driver: Ryan Newman

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing

Odds of Winning: 300-1

Newman is another Chase driver who hasn't had much luck over the last ten races at Kansas. He has one top ten finish and led only five laps during that time frame. Moreover, he's lost over five spots per race and sports an average finish of 21.1, worse than every Chaser other than Logano over the past ten events at the track. He's already all but eliminated from championship contention and his lame duck status at SHR won't help either. So it isn't likely that Outback Steakhouse will be giving away Bloomin' Onions this week.

Ryan Newman's Engineering Speed, on Amazon

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Who will win the 2013 Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas

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