It is really impossible to tell, because you can't really test them side by side. You have to choose one or the other. I prefer the HP program, because you get paid per view, not per click, and it has a lower threshold before you start getting the money. I think particularly for new accounts, the HP program is probably a better way to go.
Once you get more established and have learned the tricks of the trade on how to get real viewership, there may be a point when Adsense is a better way to go, especially if you have hubs that particularly entice clicks, but I'm not sure when that would be.