- Education and Science
What is happening with the weather
In Moscow, in this year's first snow fell in late October and has not yet melted. This happened the last time ... I mean this happened, of course, but this should not be, because it's too cold. Meteorologists confirm: yes, the temperature in November we've got to 10º below the norm. And in the Asian part of Russia some people have already seen, and -30 ° C, even though the winter and really did not start.And if you live in the Caribbean, is here right now have plagued the hurricane "Otto" , although in fact no longer relies hurricane out there this time of year. And in the Middle East was established wind unprecedented power, which dried up all around, so that only a match must offer ... and it brought the course.
In short, the weather really strange things happen. "Cold as on N. Pole" - Muscovites complained a couple of days ago, making their way along the icy streets under gusty wind. And they were wrong, because here at the North Pole is just what it was warm. Meteorologists have recorded in the Arcticrecord high temperatures - not at 10º, 20º and all above the norm. Where this time of year is usually refreshing -25 ° C, is now slightly below zero. And the ice, you know, melts. The fact that the ice in the Arctic, there are very little and it is not long enough, you can read in the Guardian ; We also addressed our rhetorical questions and bitter lamentations to local experts
- You are, of course, say that there is no anomaly, but simply the weather is different, something better, something worse?
- No, I will not say anything like that. The truth is that every year we celebrate the increase in the number of dangerous and especially dangerous phenomena. On the territory of Russia is considered to be normal about 300-500 such events a year, but last year we have consistently exceeded 500. And of course, all this is connected with the notorious, nabivshim already on edge over the global warming, which impact on the territory of Russia is more significant than the rest of the globe. The global average temperature increase over the last hundred years was 1,0º-1,1º, we - 1,2º-1,5º.
- But, by all accounts, even half a degree - it is still significantly less than the limit, beyond which catastrophic consequences. Whence, then, this bitter cold, late thaw, unprecedented drought and bad storms?
- The climate, of course, nervous. Problem is not averages, and that the average value of those same - precipitation, the temperature, the strength of the wind - there are less and less. The mean values, possibly close to the norm, but the norm is achieved by increasing surges. The oscillation amplitude increases markedly, we throw it in the heat and cold, and significantly, the cases of absolute temperature records during the observation period (ie approximately the last hundred years).
- What explains the specific situation that we are seeing now?
- Look, in our latitudes, in an atmosphere dominated by west-east transport, that is, the atmosphere is moving in the same direction as the Earth rotates, and slightly ahead of her, with a slightly deflected by the Coriolis force in a south-easterly direction. The energy of this process gives the temperature difference between the polar and equatorial regions. The greater the difference, the stronger the flow - high-altitude jet stream speed can reach 500 km / h. But the fact is that global warming in the polar regions more strongly and in equatorial weaker. Reducing the temperature gradient leads to the fact that the west-east transport weakens.
This means that he can no longer drive us cyclones formed over the Hudson Bay and the North Atlantic with the same efficiency. Effective for blocking processes. Anticyclone formed over Mongolia usually begins to stretch its wings to the territory of European Russia. If the west is no movement, then no one pushes: anticyclone gains in strength and now Cyclones are not so easy to get it, they prefer to get it from the north or from the south. If it is summer, then comes the long-predlinnaya drought. In winter, on the contrary, this situation is abnormal cold. About what happened in November.
If the blocking anticyclone will move slightly to the east, those cyclones, which can not get through it, will linger over European Russia, circling above it, the back part of the rock from the Arctic cold air.Here you get an unusually dank, rainy summer, or just such a situation as it is now: in the middle of next week, the tail of the cyclone, is shifted to the east, can bring cold weather in Moscow to -12ºS.
In general, if, due to the locking process usually west-east transport replaced meridian, then this almost always means the onset of weather anomalies. Again, because of the warming Arctic such anomalies in our latitudes is increasing.