Where Are Syria's Chemical Weapons Now?
Let's just say that the Russian proposed plan based upon the U.S. Secretary of State Kerry's comment sometime ago, actually is approved by the U.N. Both President Obama and Kerry have stated they are impatient and not willing to let this acquisition of Syria's chemical weapons go on and on.
By some experts, the soonest much of anything could happen would be a month and could take many months to complete assuming NOTHING goes wrong, which we know is just not going to happen.
Syria's chemical weapon stockpile locations before the civil war (two years ago) were a fairly sure bet. Since then, Assad, to protect them from terrorists and rebels, dispersed them to 20 spots all around the country. In the past two weeks, experts now say Assad has scattered them to 50+ other sites. Originally, before the war, the stockpiles were concentrated and well protected in key locations, today, many feel Assad has broken them down into smaller groups of stockpiles of 10 shells and hidden them so any American attacks will be foiled. Yes, some sites are known but overall it has become a shell game and unless you go to a site and look and verify, there is no way of knowing. The chemical weapons are not large and easily hidden and can be transported in vehicles at a moment notice.
Even relying on Syrian defectors or rebels about where they are is dubious. The rebels would probably like to secure a few of them, especially, the Nusra group affiliated with al-Qaeda. They probably could easily buy a few from defecting Syrian soldiers.
Of course, as the hunt for them would go on, Assad is not going to pause his conventional attacks towards Aleppo, the rebel stronghold, is he? He still has plenty of bad-ass conventional weapons to hit them with like napalm or air-fuel bombs. The rebels will attack Damascus airport for its control and who knows how they might react to the chemical weapon agreement? They are not party to it.
Now, what happens? Does the world put on blinders again as more deaths occur in the war, just as nasty as those caused by CW, as they go about their mandate to remove the CW? I find this incredibly stupid. So, Assad gets to continue his assault to stay in power using conventional weapons and the West and U.N. turn a blind eye to it? Assad is much smarter than I thought, what a deal!
Of course, we will never be 100% certain Assad gave up most of his CW. His VX weapons are his "poor-man" nuclear deterrent against Israel's nukes. Assad feels his VX keeps Israel at bay from using its own nukes. Do you really think he will just hand them over? Then there is Syria's partner, Iran. Even though it despises CW, as the world's attention focuses on Syria, Iran quietly continues refining more nuclear bomb grade material in their underground bunkers so they can get nuclear weapons!
Huh, what happened to the US threat in attacking them? Didn't Obama also say he had a red line there also about centrifuges etc.? Yep. I guess, that just another idle promise and one that is very similar to Syria's CW. A US attack on Iran was similar, we really did not know where all the centrifuges were and still don't.
Obama has really a dismal record in foreign policy. Syria, for all we know, could have already transported some of its CW to Iran for safe keeping or into Lebanon, where Syria has facilities. They could leave just enough to satisfy the West. Then, when it is all done, they come back.
This is just another mess and game and even though Obama may think this also, there is not much he can do unless he is willing to use military force at some point to either destroy or secure the CW. You cannot rely on the U.N.