ArtsAutosBooksBusinessEducationEntertainmentFamilyFashionFoodGamesGenderHealthHolidaysHomeHubPagesPersonal FinancePetsPoliticsReligionSportsTechnologyTravel

Academy Awards Predictions 2013

Updated on February 3, 2013

Dive into the Academy Awards Oscar Pool! The water's full of stars!

February 24th is the night when the envelopes are opened and the "Oscar goes to..." the choice you've made in your local Oscar Pool. Hollywood ignores the box office for one night and bores us to tears with an evening of song, dance and speeches. Gambling against your friends and family to pick the most winners is the only real reason to sit through the tedious hours of the TV ceremony. So, once again this year, I am offering my "vast knowledge" of movies and Academy Awards historical trend analysis of previous upsets and slam dunks to help you take home some cash on Oscar night.

Battle of the Box Office Dogs

Once you realize that the Academy Awards is all about promoting movies that are not box office hits or mass (crass) commercial packages designed to extract money from your pocket,you are partially into thinking like an Oscar voter. These voters are insiders, desperate to keep their craft alive and support art and individual creative expression. So, you probably have not seen most of the nominated movies and performances. They are chosen and voted on by insiders supporting each other. They vote based on a whole gamut of reasons from personal to political to saving jobs. All the movies nominated are box office dogs. This is not a popularity contest, so leave your fan support outside when you draft your Oscar list of possible winners.

My Logical Prediction Strategy

My prediction strategy is simple, go with nominees with a track record (such as wins at other award ceremonies such as the Writers or Actors guilds, or the Golden Globes. Also look for sentimental favorites who have been overlooked in past years or have struggled for recognition or, best of all, overcome horrendous adversity to make it in Hollywood. These give hope to the Academy Award voters that they too may have their day in the spotlight. It makes everyone feel good when an underdog beats the odds. So, you can surf the web and see what everyone is predicting, or read my list which has a synthesis of all the "intelligence" currently out there, sifted through my lens of practical experience and then enjoy the show. It is fun to predict the future, even as we all know, it is impossible.

Argo Should Take Best Picture

The Creative Categories: My Academy Awards Predictions

Best Picture is Argo, because it won the Golden Globes and it is a great, true story about Hollywood coming to the rescue of hostages in Iran. With eight other nominees, the vote get split and watered down so the winner sometimes is not the overwhelming favorite but the one that offends the least and pleases the most. How else could you explain the win last year for The Artist? Again, I think we'll see Hollywood rewarding itself. So, Argo is the favorite, even though Ben Affleck is not in the hunt for Best Director.

Best Director usually goes together with Best Picture but not this year. Lincoln was a favorite before Argo won the Globes, so Steven Spielberg should grab the votes than normally follow the Best Picture pick.

Best Actor is a lock for Daniel Day-Lewis and his moving, uncanny portrait of President Lincoln, and he won the Golden Globes award.

Best Actress is a bit more of a contest but Jennifer Lawrence won the Globes and should take home and Oscar for her performance in Silver Linings Playbook.

More Creative Categories

Screenplays fall into two categories, Original and Adapted from some other medium. Original Screenplay is a close race between Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty and Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained. One is political and one is controversial, but Quentin has won before so go with the past winner. For Adapted Screenplay, Argo's Chris Terrio should win for making this material into a movie at all.

Score and Song are a mixed bag this year, with the Bond song, Skyfall and Adele isthe favorite of practically everyone - this is not a tough competition as movie songs are universally terrible. Best score is a place where Life of Pi should be rewarded again like at the Globes, along with the CGI tiger in the technical category.

Best Animated Feature is Tim Burton's Frankenweenie in a slow year for this blatantly commercial category, although Brave won at the Globes and could be the winner. No one other than Oscar pool players really cares about this category anyway. Chose your own favorite and move on.

Best Foreign Language Film will go to the French Film Amour, about a couple in their eighties - the average age of the majority of Academy Awards voters.

Hollywood Oscar Pools!

Beverly Hills Oscar pool is perfect to relax with your Academy Award beside you.
Beverly Hills Oscar pool is perfect to relax with your Academy Award beside you. | Source
Can't beat the Hollywood Hills pools for Oscar parties!
Can't beat the Hollywood Hills pools for Oscar parties! | Source
Of course, the biggest Oscar Pool is the big one at Malibu, where you buy your beach house and jump in every morning (called the Pacific Ocean)
Of course, the biggest Oscar Pool is the big one at Malibu, where you buy your beach house and jump in every morning (called the Pacific Ocean) | Source
When you win an Oscar, a drive down Sunset Boulevard is a must!
When you win an Oscar, a drive down Sunset Boulevard is a must! | Source

Are you an Oscar Winner?

Have you seen any of the nominated best picture movies?

See results

Guessing the Geeks

The Rest of the Oscar Nominees

The remaining 14 categories are for the arts and crafts portion of movies, lighting and editing and getting recognition for starting small, as in short films or supporting roles to the lead actors. Everyone has to start somewhere and learn a trade, so we need these categories to maintain a healthy movie industry, but do they make great TV watching? Nope. Who really cares who wins art direction? Or sound mixing? Just other craftsmen in the biz, but we also can up our Oscar pool performance by "guessing the geeks" preferences.

Best Support for the Stars

Supporting Actor has two nominees from the same movie, Django Unchained so they will probably cancel each other out and let Tommy Lee Jones in for his role in Lincoln.

Supporting Actress belongs to Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables, and for being so brave in hosting the Oscars last year and surviving with her dignity intact.

Films Nobody Sees

Documentaries are tough to call, as they reflect our social condition and mood, but the favorite seems to be Searching For Sugar Man, about a musician who got screwed over and yet remained famous in foreign countries while he toiled away in America in low-level jobs. It is the kind of story Hollywood sees and loves and hopes and identifies in their own careers.

Short films are totally obscure films no one sees and, unless you catch a trailer or two, you have no way of evaluating except from research, recommendations or films with kids in them. Let me save you lots of internet searches and say the favorites are Adam and Dog, Open Heart and Curfew for Animated, Documentary and Live Action Shorts respectively.

Test you Oscar Knowledge

view quiz statistics

Lincoln will take home some Oscar gold, but which ones?

Rewarding the Craft of Filmmaking

Finally, we have the true crafts of film, from lighting and editing to sound and make-up. .

Here is the list and probable winners (from my own personal tastes mixed with general consensus of critics):

Production Design: Les Miserables

Cinematography: Life of Pi

Costume Design: Anna Karenina

Editing: Argo (can't have a thriller without editing)

Make-up: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (no one in the movie has a face without make-up)

Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty

Sound Mixing: Les Miserables (for all the live singing on set)

VIsual Effects: Life of Pi (the tiger (spoiler) wasn't real, you know).

Good Night and Good Luck

So, as you watch the 85th Academy Awards, ignore your box office favorites to root for the most obscure movies of the year, I hope you edge out your best friend, parents and older sister and your very competitive grandma for the Oscar pool money.

Comments

    0 of 8192 characters used
    Post Comment

    No comments yet.

    working

    This website uses cookies

    As a user in the EEA, your approval is needed on a few things. To provide a better website experience, hubpages.com uses cookies (and other similar technologies) and may collect, process, and share personal data. Please choose which areas of our service you consent to our doing so.

    For more information on managing or withdrawing consents and how we handle data, visit our Privacy Policy at: https://hubpages.com/privacy-policy#gdpr

    Show Details
    Necessary
    HubPages Device IDThis is used to identify particular browsers or devices when the access the service, and is used for security reasons.
    LoginThis is necessary to sign in to the HubPages Service.
    Google RecaptchaThis is used to prevent bots and spam. (Privacy Policy)
    AkismetThis is used to detect comment spam. (Privacy Policy)
    HubPages Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide data on traffic to our website, all personally identifyable data is anonymized. (Privacy Policy)
    HubPages Traffic PixelThis is used to collect data on traffic to articles and other pages on our site. Unless you are signed in to a HubPages account, all personally identifiable information is anonymized.
    Amazon Web ServicesThis is a cloud services platform that we used to host our service. (Privacy Policy)
    CloudflareThis is a cloud CDN service that we use to efficiently deliver files required for our service to operate such as javascript, cascading style sheets, images, and videos. (Privacy Policy)
    Google Hosted LibrariesJavascript software libraries such as jQuery are loaded at endpoints on the googleapis.com or gstatic.com domains, for performance and efficiency reasons. (Privacy Policy)
    Features
    Google Custom SearchThis is feature allows you to search the site. (Privacy Policy)
    Google MapsSome articles have Google Maps embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
    Google ChartsThis is used to display charts and graphs on articles and the author center. (Privacy Policy)
    Google AdSense Host APIThis service allows you to sign up for or associate a Google AdSense account with HubPages, so that you can earn money from ads on your articles. No data is shared unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
    Google YouTubeSome articles have YouTube videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
    VimeoSome articles have Vimeo videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
    PaypalThis is used for a registered author who enrolls in the HubPages Earnings program and requests to be paid via PayPal. No data is shared with Paypal unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
    Facebook LoginYou can use this to streamline signing up for, or signing in to your Hubpages account. No data is shared with Facebook unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
    MavenThis supports the Maven widget and search functionality. (Privacy Policy)
    Marketing
    Google AdSenseThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Google DoubleClickGoogle provides ad serving technology and runs an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Index ExchangeThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    SovrnThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Facebook AdsThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Amazon Unified Ad MarketplaceThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    AppNexusThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    OpenxThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Rubicon ProjectThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    TripleLiftThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Say MediaWe partner with Say Media to deliver ad campaigns on our sites. (Privacy Policy)
    Remarketing PixelsWe may use remarketing pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to advertise the HubPages Service to people that have visited our sites.
    Conversion Tracking PixelsWe may use conversion tracking pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to identify when an advertisement has successfully resulted in the desired action, such as signing up for the HubPages Service or publishing an article on the HubPages Service.
    Statistics
    Author Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide traffic data and reports to the authors of articles on the HubPages Service. (Privacy Policy)
    ComscoreComScore is a media measurement and analytics company providing marketing data and analytics to enterprises, media and advertising agencies, and publishers. Non-consent will result in ComScore only processing obfuscated personal data. (Privacy Policy)
    Amazon Tracking PixelSome articles display amazon products as part of the Amazon Affiliate program, this pixel provides traffic statistics for those products (Privacy Policy)