Marvel's Avengers Age of Ultron Box Office Predictions
FINAL UPDATE 7/17/2015
Age of Ultron has nearly finished up its theatrical run. After a huge opening of $191.2 million, its domestic gross is up to $455.4 million, and $1.3 billion worldwide. Though its totals where very impressive this outcome was a little disapointing compared to the first installment of the series.
Marvel’s Avengers: Age of Ultron had a very solid second weekend with a haul of $77.2 million this past weekend. The first Avengers had a drop of only 50% in it’s second week, but Age of Ultron dropped 10% more in its second weekend at 60%. This drop further indicates that it will not reach the hight of the original. After updating my models to reflect the new opening, the final gross will most likely be somewhere between $528.97 and $487.88 million. The film also has a slight chance of grossing upwards of $625 million, but this is extremely unlikely and the range mentioned before is far more accurate and believable outcome. With this huge, but lower that expected gross may inevitably allow Star Wars to out gross in the end and make Age of Ultron the second highest grossing movie of 2015.
Marvel’s Avengers: Age of Ultron ended up falling well short of the $207.5 million mark set by its predecessor in 2012, earning $191,271,109. Early on Friday, the film looked as if it was going to smash the record at nearly $221 million, but it ended up dropping sharply on Saturday. This was mainly due to the record breaking pre-sale of tickets leading up to the films premier and the deceptively high Friday numbers expected. Age of Ultron, also did not have as great of reviews as the first, even though they were good reviews. The film also has raked in $630.2 million world wide.
My models currently show the film making anywhere from $487.5 to $528.5, but they also suggest that the film could still reach $560 million when you look at what the original Avengers did at the box office. $560 million, is only possible if the film performs as well as The Avengers did. Age of Ultron, still has one more weekend all alone, with the lone release being Hot Pursuit. Hot Pursuit should have no impact on Age of Ultron’s second weekend and Hot Pursuit it is still trending to be the first flop of the summer. The second weekend should give a better picture of what Age of Ultron will do in the end.
Prediction as of 4/30/2015
The first edition in The Avengers franchise is the third highest grossing film of all time and it surprised everyone at just how big it ended up being. The Avengers had a domestic opening of $207,438,708, grossed $623,357,910, and made a grand world wide total of $1,514,557,910. Marvel’s Avengers: Age of Ultron is poised to be just as big at the first and as of April, 28th has already made $200 million its international premiers last weekend. One of the advantages that this film has, is that it has practically no competition for two weeks. This is because its predecessor had hobble the opening of all of the films released in May of 2012. Most of the films this year have moved off to later on in the summer or in the case of Furious 7, decided to come out a month earlier, in order to avoid Age of Ultron.
Age of Ultron Trailer
This particular movie is a little hard to predict, just because the first film was so huge. Age of Ultron, could very well do as The Dark Knight and The Dark Knight Rises had done. In the case of those two movies, The Dark Knight opened to a huge opening of $158.4 million and grossed $534.8 million, the following film opened higher at $160.8 million, but grossed less with $448.1 million. The slight fall of the predecessor may be inevitable in this case since it’s the second installment. Usually with sequels, they will make a large amount of money in its first two weeks, with the rush of its established fanbase eager to see the film. Then the sequels tend to fall off a lot more than the original installment. This fall off is because the bulk of your audience has already seen the picture. For example, The Hunger Games films have all done this same thing in their release. Also, in the case of Age of Ultron, after the first two weeks of being alone, it will have a little competition. This competition comes in the form of Mad Max: Fury Road and Pitch Perfect 2, then Tomorrowland three weeks after Age of Ultron’s premier.
Right now, Age of Ultron is trending to open larger that the $207 million mark set by The Avengers. Age of Ultron, should open somewhere around $217 million and if it follows the trend set by The Avengers it would make about $652 million. As mentioned before, this large mark might be unlikely and following the trends of the other films set in the Marvel universe it could gross about $603 million. Even the number based on other Marvel films seams a little to high, to me. What’s most likely to happen with Age of Ultron, at least according to trends established by other film released in May with an opening of $121 million or more, this film should gross about $555.7 million when all is done. This amount for May openings are also suggested by this years current box office trends.
Possible Gross for Avengers: Age of Ultron
But, there are a couple of other possibilities with this film. It is possible (unlikely) that the film could open a little less then expected or a little more then expected. It’s more likely that the current expectations are soft and Age of Ultron will open large then expected . Without suitable competition the following week to steel any momentum from it, the second weekend could have a very slight decline than one would expect if their was another release. The only film is slated to come out in Age of Ultron’s first two weeks is the Reese Witherspoon comedy Hot Pursuit, which is looking to be a big flop. If the second weekend ends up doing being bigger, Age of Ultron could carry some heavy momentum through May and possibly give a glancing blow to the top two highest grossing films of all-time Titanic at $658 million and Avatar at $760 million. Once again, reaching Titanic and Avatar is unlikely.
Age of Ultron should be the highest grossing picture of the year depending on what Star Wars: The Force Awakens does this December. Age of Ultron will open in range of $206.2 and $223.5 million. By the end of its domestic premier weekend, Age of Ultron will have payed for itself, including the international receipts. By the end of its second weekend is will gross some where between $280.8 and $304.4 million. The final gross should land around $561.6 and $608.9 million, but there is a slim possibility that it could explode and achieve a number close to The Avengers final gross of $623 million. Now off course, the domestic box office represents less the half of the films total world wide haul, which will be somewhere north of $1.5 billion.
Personally, I’m airing on the high side of things, at least when it comes down to the opening weekend for the film. Age of Ultron will open with a solid and by the way highest opening weekend ever, at $217 million and possibly a little more. The films final gross will still fall short of its predecessor at $590 million.
Currently, Age of Ultron is trending to open at $221 million. The film is most likely going to fall short of the orginals box office returns, but at around $602 million. If the film ends up grossing enough in its second week, Age of Ultron could possibly out gross The Avengers.
© 2015 Austin James Marion