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Ant-Man and Trainwreck Box Office Projections
Article was originally published 6/23/2015. All updates are at the bottom of this article.
Out in theaters on July 17th are Marvels newest offering Ant-Man and Amy Schumer’s Trainwreck. Currently the newest of Marvels titles are a hot commodity, which was shown the surprise huge success of Guardians of the Galaxy last year. Trainwreck features Amy Schumer in her first lead role in a movie and right now strong independent women in the leading role have been showing amazing power at the box office as seen with Scarlett Johansson in Lucy, Melissa McCarthy in this years Spy, Sandra Bullock in Gravity, and the performance of Pitch Perfect 2 in May.
Ant-Man is of course based on the comic book of the same name. The story centers on ex-convict Scott Lang whom is given a super-suit with the special power to shrink and gives him amazing strength to become Ant-Man and to pull off a heist to save the world. Paul Rudd plays Scott Lang, Evangeline Lilly as his love interest Hope Van Dyne, and Michael Douglas as Dr. Hank Pym creator of the super-suit. The film also features Hayley Atwell reprising her role as Peggy Carter, Michael Pena, Judy Greer, and Mad Men’s John Slattery also reprising his role as Howard Stark from Iron Man 2.
This film is highly anticipated with 99% out of 93,107 users on Rotten Tomatoes showing interest in seeing the film. The screenplay is written by Edgar Wright (Shaun of the Dead), Joe Cornish (The Adventures of Tintin), Adam McKay (Anchorman), and Paul Rudd. In the directors chair is Peyton Reed (The Break-Up), helming his first tent pole action film. Ant-Man is on its way to being another one of Marvels benchmark series.
Trainwreck is about a magazine writer that was taught by her father that monogamy isn’ t realistic in life. Her love life is a series of one-night stands but when she begins to fall for a sports doctor she becomes conflicted with what she was taught about monogamy. Trainwreck stars Amy Schumer and Bill Hader as her love interest. The film also features Brie Larson, Colin Quinn, and basketball star LeBron James.
The film was also written by Amy Schumer and directed by dependable comedy director Judd Apatow. Like Spy released at the beginning of June this R rated comedy is also receiving great reviews getting a 100% fresh rating on Rottentomatoes.com. Also, the very talented comedian Amy Schumer’s popularity continues to grow and she has 1.2 million followers on twitter alone.
Though Ant-Man is not an established title coming to screens it does have the springboard that is Marvel Studios to rely on. Last year, Guardians of the Galaxy used that same springboard to a very successful opening at $94.3 million and going on to dominate the month of August making $333.1 million domestically. Guardians’ performance is the third highest grossing first installment for a Marvel film under Iron Man and Sam Ramie’s Spider-Man; this is excluding The Avengers because that film had a springboard of characters from other Marvel films. The average opening weekend for a first installment for a Marvel film is $85 million, a domestic gross of $261.5 million, and a worldwide gross of $582.6 million. The current projections are a little low when it comes down to the domestic gross with an opening weekend of $71.2 million, a domestic gross of $207.1 million, and a worldwide gross of $610.8 million. I have a feeling that the film is going to have enough time to stretch its legs and the only film that is going steal any thunder from the it is the new Fantastic Four out on August 7th.
I primarily used trends based on the performance of other Marvel films. I started with a basic model based on an opening weekend of $70 million; the film could gross as little as $189.7 million domestically but bring in $464.2 million worldwide. This performance is plausible and both Thor and Captain America grossed in a similar fashion. With the performance of Guardians of the Galaxy I think these trends may not be typical for a new Marvel films. The other two Marvel models I used, use a higher opening weekend, which could be has high as $96.4 or $90.7 million. The domestic grosses could be $261.5 or $246.1 million and a worldwide total of $639.9 or $602.1 million.
I also used trends of other films that have grossed between $200 and $299 million. Assuming an opening weekend of $70 million, the films domestic gross would be $235.2 million. As for the worldwide total it could be around $615.1 million.
Ant-Man’s opening should fall between $96.4 and 57.8 million. The domestic gross will be from $274.7 to $164.8 million. The worldwide gross should be between $688.1 and $412.9 million. I predict that the film will open with $85 million, gross at least $262 million, and have worldwide total at $600 million.
Trainwreck will perform very well during its time in theaters. As mentioned before the films star Amy Schumer is very popular and the film has solid reviews which is sign that the film will have favorable word of mouth following its release. Using trends based on R rated comedies the film could have an opening weekend as high as $35.3 million and as low as $27 million. Trainwrecks domestic gross could be as high as $136.7 million and as low as $104.5 million. Based on additional trends of R rated films the movie could gross as low as $26.2 million but gross as high as $140.6 million. The current projections for the film have it opening at $27 million and grossing around $136.7 million.
The film should have an opening weekend between $39.7 and $24.1 million. The domestic gross will be between $160.4 and $97.3 million. The worldwide gross will be a little lower than normal since it’s not an established comedy title making around $189.9 million. I predict an opening weekend of $30 million, a domestic gross of $115 million, and a worldwide gross of $150 million. I based my worldwide total on the performance of the first Hangover, which made most of it’s money domestically while subsequent additions to the franchise doubled their domestic totals in the international market.
Both films are on their way contributing to this record-breaking year. Ant-Man will premier at the number one spot with Trainwreck in second. Both films will go on to bring in a solid amounts in the end.
Ant-Man and Trainwreck are both tracking for solid openings. Ant-Man is currently tracking for an opening weekend of $55 to $65 million but these numbers may be soft. Trainwreck is tracking for an opening of about $32 million.
UPDATE 7/16/2015 OPENING WEEKEND
Both films are trending well for their opening weekend. Trainwreck still is getting amazing reviews with a 90% fresh rating on Rotten Tomattoes while Ant-Man is getting good reviews with a 78% fresh rating. The forcast have Ant-Man opening anywhere from $60 to $70 million and Trainwreck anywhere from $25 to $35 million.
Both films have been building anticipation in the last few weeks especially Ant-Man, which I wouldn't be surprised if Ant-Man out does the current forcast for it.
Both Ant-Man and Trainwreck have very positive audience responses from Thursday night showing. Ant-Man has a 91% liked it rating from 103,942 users on Rotten Tomatoes and Trainwreck has a 83% raiting from 26,312 users. These positive rating indicate that word of mouth will be positive for both films over the long run.
The first weekend estimates for Ant-Man and Trainwreck are out and both films are performing well. Ant-Man domestic opening is currently track lower than what was initially expected but a still solid $57.5 million. Trainwreck is still looking like it will open with $30 million. There are no overseas numbers available as of today but should become late on Sunday.
The new weekend estimates have Ant-Man's opening weekend at $58 million and Trainwreck at $30.2 million.
Ant-Man opened solidly but a little underwhelming with $57.5 million domestically and has a worldwide total of $113.6. Trainwreck opened with $30 million domestically and is going to do well over next few weeks.
Trainwreck is slated to have a solid second weekend and its gross is going to be around $62.8 million. With that strong second weekend the film could end up having a final gross over $110 million.
Ant-Man is also going to have a solid second weekend bringing its domestic gross up around $112 million coming in third place to two new releases Pixels and Paper Towns. The film should be able to bring in around $200 million domestically and perform well overseas.
Ant-Man has a surprise second weekend in the top spot thanks to Adam Sandlers lates stumble with Pixels. Ant-Man had a decent second weekend adding $24.7 million bringing its domestic gross up to an estimated $106 million and worldwide total up to $226.4 million.
Trainwreck also had a solid second weekend at $17.2 and has brought its domestic gross up to $61.5 million. The Amy Schumer comedy should also have totals from overseas coming in soon.
Ant-Man's domestic total is up to $147.4 million with a worldwide total of $326.3 million so far. Trainwreck is still performing well with a domestic total of $91 million and worldwide gross of $97.1 million.