2016 Box Office Projections & Results: January to April
This article will be updated at a minimum weekly on Monday's with the final weekend numbers.
After the incredible and record-breaking year of 2015, Hollywood will be looking to duplicate its success though it will be unlikely. 2015 was a perfect storm of huge release such as Star Wars The Force Awakens, Jurassic World, Avengers: Age of Ultron, Furious 7 and Minion which all grossed over one billion worldwide. 2016 will be good but does not have the fortunate lineup as 2015 had. This year will usher several highly anticipated titles, some of which moved to this year from last year for various reasons like Batman V Superman and Finding Dory. The first part of a three part breakdown of the year will feature the likes of The Revenant, 13 Hours, London Has Fallen, Hail, Caesar!, Pride and Prejudice and Zombies and Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice and here is a run down of the biggest releases of January to April 2016.
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Screenplay by Austin Marion
Release on January 8th, 2016
The films released in the final weeks of December always dominate the first few weeks of January. The first film to look out for is from 2015 The Revenant, which is expanding to wide release. The Revenant is about frontiersman Phillip Glass and his fight for survival in the 1820's. The film is director Alejandro Ganzalez Inarritu follow up to last years Birdman and possible repeat Best Director win at the Oscars and stars Leonardo DiCaprio, Tom Hardy, Will Poultor and Domhnall Gleeson. The Revenant may be the project that finally wins and Oscar for DiCaprio.
Opening Weekend: Predicted $26 million - Actual $39.8 million *
Domestic Gross: Predicted $100 million - Actual $170.6 million
Worldwide Total: Predicted $200 million - Actual $404.1 million
Based upon the opening weekend for the films final domestic haul could be around $130 million, far more than original projections for the film. The film is also receiving a lot of free press do to the award season success it is having and the fact the wide release was perfectly synced up with the Golden Globes and Oscar nomination announcements.
* First weekend in wide release
Release on January 15th, 2016
The first major studio release of 2016 is Michael Bay's 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi. The film is based on the events of 2012 when the U.S. Embassy in Libya was under siege. 13 Hours stars John Krasinski, Pablo Schreiber and Toby Stephens.
Opening Weekend: $20 million Actual: $19.2 million *
Domestic Gross: $65 million Actual: $52.2 million
Worldwide Total: $90 million Actual: $53.7 million
Ride Along 2 is the sequel to 2014's surprise hit Ride Along. Like it's predecessor, it stars Kevin Hart and Ice Cub and should perform just as well.
Opening Weekend: $45 million Actual: $41 million *
Domestic Gross: $120 million Actual: $88.4 million
Worldwide Total: $135 million Actual $117.9 million
*Opening weekend for 1/15 is a four day weekend for Martin Luther King Weekend.
Release on January 22nd, 2016
Dirty Grandpa features Zac Efron and Robert DeNiro as grandpa and grandson on a spring break trip together. Currently, this film isn't expected to perform all that well but, it does have the capability to duplicating Efron's past R rated comedy success of Neighbors.
Opening Weekend: $10 million Actual: $11.1 million
Domestic Gross: $35 million Actual: $35.1 million
Release on January 29th, 2016
The Finest Hours, like Dirty Grandpa, is also expected to be unspectacular at the box office. The film follows the true story of one of the U.S. Coast Guards most daring rescues and stars Chris Pine and Casey Affleck.
Opening Weekend: $8.5 million Actual: $10.2 million
Domestic Gross: $29 million Actual: $26.7 million
Worldwide Total: $50 million Actual: $36.5 million
Marlon Wayans looks to duplicate his recent low budget success' of A Haunted House and it's sequel, with his spoof of Fifty Shades of Grey, Fifty Shades of Black.
Opening Weekend: $15 million Actual: $5.9 million
Domestic Gross: $28 million Actual: $11.4 million
Kung Fu Panda 3 looks to be the biggest winner of this weekend, being a tried and true hit in its past installments.
Opening Weekend: $40 million Actual: $41.2 million
Domestic Gross: $175 million Acutal: $128.3 million
Worldwide Total: $650 million Actual: $314.1 million
Release on February 5th, 2016
The latest from Joel and Ethan Coen, Hail, Caesar!, will grace the grace the screen. Coen regulars George Clooney, Josh Brolin and Frances McDormand all headline as well as Scarlett Johansson, Channing Tatum, Ralph Fiennes, Jonah Hill and Dolph Lundgren. The Coen Brothers films perform like clock work at the box office and this film should do just as well as their past films.
Opening Weekend: $15 million Actual: $11.3 million
Domestic Gross: $52 million Actual: $28.3 million
Worldwide Total: $90 million Actual: $40.1 million
Based upon the book of the same title Pride and Prejudice and Zombies, the popular satire on the classic novel Pride and Prejudice by Seth Grahame-Smith. The film stars Lily James, Lena Headey, Matt Smith and Jack Huston but current projections are a little low for the film. A small audience exists for the book and may not be enough to draw in a very large audience for the movie but, anticipation may be quiet, giving a false read on what the film would do in the long run.
Opening Weekend: $11 million Actual: $5.3 million
Domestic Gross: $27 million Actual: $10.9 million
Worldwide Total: $50 million Actual: $10.9 million
Pride and Prejudice and Zombies Update: Based upon the dismal first and second weekend for for the zombie take on a classic, the film will most likely top out around $15 million in the domestic market.
Release on February 12th, 2016
The first big weekend of 2016 will come with the release of the sequel to the 2001 original, Zoolander 2. Once again the film will be directed by and star Ben Stiller and co-star Own Wilson, Penelope Cruz and Will Ferrell, along with appearances by Olivia Munn, Benedict Cumberbatch, Kristen Wiig, Christine Taylor, Billy Zane and Justin Bieber. The original was a sleeper hit and has attained a cult following that will propel this film to success and may gross better than the bellow projections.
Opening Weekend: $22 million Actual: 15.8 million
Domestic Gross: $50 million Actual: 27.3 million
Worldwide Total: $75 million Actual: 27.3 million
Zoolander 2 Update 2/23/2016: Even though the opening weekend was disappointing for the sequel to the cult fave, the second weekend was promising. The film should still end up between $40 and $50 million.
The first Marvel release of the year will be the 20th Century Fox distributed and R rated Deadpool, staring Ryan Reynolds as the title character. Ryan Reynolds has played the character before in 2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine but played another comic book character in 2011’s ill-fated DC good guy Green Lantern. Audience response to the trailer has been very favorable and indicates a decent amount of interest in the movie. A big but for the film is lately any film outside the Disney created Marvel Universe, with the exception of the X-Men franchise have had an extremely hard time at achieving success or maintaining it through a series of films. Also, last years Ant-Man had lofty expectations and projections but disappointed domestically even though it was a hit.
Opening Weekend: $76 million Actual: $152.1 million
Domestic Gross: $160 million Revised Proj. Gross: $180 million Actual: $285.2 million
Worldwide Total: $350 million Actual: $609.3 million
Deadpool Update: The R rated comic book film is trending better then projected due to a great advertising strategy that is being extreamly well receive. It also has an advantage of a four day presidents day weekend and may become a top five all time R rated opening, perhaps over $80 million. This may be a stretch because the R rated Mavel film has not been attempted in some time and is uncharted territory. The film has better long range prospects and will make close to $180 million.
Deadpool Update 2/15/2016: Deadpool will have he highest R rated opening ever with an estimated $135 million and will perhaps go on to become the highest grossing R rated film ever.
Deadpool Update 2/23/2016: After the second weekend the film looks to become the highest grossing R rated film of all time. My current projections have the final domestic gross could fall between $370 and $406 million with the worldwide gross falling upwards of $700 million.
The final release for this weekend may be a sleeper hit, with How to Be Single staring Dakota Johnson, Rebel Wilson, Alison Brie and Leslie Mann. Rebel Wilson already has a devout fan base and she has acting and comedic chops to handle the lead in any film and Dakota Johnson is riding a high off of last years Fifty Shades of Grey. How to Be Single was produced Drew Barrymore. Currently, the films has low expectations because it is a lower budget affair, the competitions is a little fierce that weekend and it isn’t an established title but if the turns out to be good word of mouth could create good things.
Opening Weekend: $17 million Actual: $19.9 million
Domestic Gross: $40 million Actual: $39.4 million
Worldwide Gross Actual: $74.1 million
* The opening weekend for these three movies is a four day weekend due to Presidents' Day.
Release February 19th, 2016
Race is a new uplifting sports story about the events that lead to Jesse Owens making it to the 1936 Olympics in Nazi Germany. The film stars Stephan James, Jason Sudeikis, Jeremy Irons and William Hurt and was directed by Stephen Hopkins.
Opening Weekend: $14 million Actual: $7.3 million
Domestic Gross: $27 million Actual: $13.6 million
Worldwide Total: $50 million Actual: $13.6 million
As usual for this time of the year, is the inevitable Christian themed film to capitalize on the Easter Holiday, Risen. The film follows several Roman Military members that investigate into the rise of Jesus. Risen stars Tom Felton of Harry Potter fame, Joseph Fiennes and Cliff Curtis. In recent years, there have been several films that low budget Christian targeted films that have done extremely well.
Opening Weekend: $25 million Actual: $11.8 million
Domestic Gross: $58 million Actual: $22.5 million
Worldwide Total: $72 million Actual: $22.5 million
Release February 26th, 2016
Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon: Sword of Destiny is the long anticipated sequel to the 2000 original. Since this film is also being released on Netflix at the same time it will not make any large statements at the box office. The below projections are a best-case scenario.
Opening Weekend: $1 million
Domestic Gross: $5 million
Worldwide Total: $12 million
Gods of Egypt will be the first major disappointment for 2016 and is already earning poor press due to the film starring a white cast playing Egyptians. The film does appear to be a huge visual spectacle, which is to be expected from I, Robot director Alex Proyas but will lack story and audience anticipation. The film may make up some of its losses in the international market just like last years Seventh Son. Gods of Egypt will star Gerard Butler and Rufus Sewell.
Opening Weekend: $8 million Actual: $14.1 million
Domestic Gross: $18 million Actual: $14.1 million
Worldwide Total: $100 million Actual: $14.1 million
Eddie the Eagle
Opening Weekend: $4 million Actual: $6 million
Domestic Gross: $15 million Actual: $6 million
Worldwide Total: $25 million Actual: $6 million
Release on March 4th, 2016
Just a week after Gerard Butler stars in the possible flop Gods of Egypt he will be redeemed with the sequel of the 2013 low budget action/thriller Olympus Has Fallen, London Has Fallen. The original was a surprise hit and was well received, so that should translate into a decent size audience to be interested in this one.
Opening Weekend: $30 million Revised: $24 million
Domestic Gross: $110 million Revised: $72 million
Worldwide Total: $228 million Revised: $150 million
Also, out this weekend is the Tina Fey war/comedy Whisky Tango Foxtrot. Fey is joined by Margot Robbie, Billy Bob Thornton, Alfred Molina, Josh Charles and Martin Freeman in this film that follow journalist in war torn Afghanistan. A great cast and Tina Fey fresh off of Sisters will add this films success.
Opening Weekend: $24 million
Domestic Gross: $60 million
Worldwide Total: $110 million
The first major Disney offering will be the animated Zootopia and may be the beginning of new franchise for Disney’s animation wing.
Opening Weekend: $35 million
Domestic Gross: $160 million
Worldwide Total: $363 million
Release on March 11th, 2016
The Brothers Grimsby is an action comedy staring Sacha Baron Cohen and Mark Strong as brothers separated at young age. When the brothers are reunited one is a secret agent and the other is a beer swilling soccer hooligan that end up on the run from MI6.
Opening Weekend: $30 million
Domestic Gross: $94 million
Worldwide Total: $227 million
The Other Side of the Door, a new horror film from 20th Century Fox.
Opening Weekend: $15 million
Domestic Gross: $35 million
Worldwide Total: $40 million
Valencia is a thriller starring Mary Elizabeth Winstead and John Goodman.
Opening Weekend: $2 million
Domestic Gross: $6 million
Release on March 18th, 2016
The third addition the Divergent Series, Allegiant will bow at theaters this weekend. The young adult series hasn’t been has big as Twilight or The Hunger Games but has been a consistent earner and should do as well as past installments.
Opening Weekend: $45 million
Domestic Gross: $120 million
Worldwide Total: $300 million
Release on March 25, 2016
Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice the sequel to Man of Steel, was originally supposed to be out in theaters last summer but smartly moved to March, which will give the movie room to stretch its legs and pay for its rumored $410 million price tag. This long anticipated film should be the first film of the year to gross over one billion worldwide.
Opening Weekend: $150 million
Domestic Gross: $473 million
Worldwide Total: $1.2 billion
The longest wait for a sequel out this year is My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2; the original was a surprise blockbuster in 2002. This new addition should do well off of the established popularity but wont be has big as the original.
Opening Weekend: $17 million
Domestic Gross: $53 million
Worldwide Total: $75 million
I Saw the Light, is a drama about the life of Hank Williams in the mold of Walk The Line and stars Lee Pace.
Opening Weekend: $16 million
Domestic Gross: $50.5 million
Worldwide Total: $75 million
Release on April 1st, 2016
Rings, is the most likely unneeded third installment to the 2002 American horror remake of Japanese Ringu, The Ring. The first installment did extremely well at the box office and with audiences, but the 2005 sequel left a bitter and confusing taste. Naomi Watts will not be returning and The Big Bang Theory’s Johnny Galecki will fill the lead role. Maybe it will turn out to be an very elaborate and expensive April Fools Day joke.
Opening Weekend: $20 million
Domestic Gross: $50 million
Worldwide Total: $127 million
Release on April 8th, 2016
Before I Wake
Opening Weekend: $13 million
Domestic Gross: $25 million
Worldwide Total: $30 million
Melissa McCarthy will be looking to duplicate her success from last year’s success Spy, with R rated comedy The Boss, co-starring in The Boss is Kristen Bell and Peter Dinklage. This will be the first of two big films for McCarthy, which will have her crowned as the most bankable actress for the year.
Opening Weekend: $29 million
Domestic Gross: $100 million
Worldwide Total: $120 million
Jake Gyllenhaal and Naomi Watts star in the drama/comedy Demolition.
Opening Weekend: $10 million
Domestic Gross: $23 million
Release on April 15th, 2016
Amityville: The Awakening
Opening Weekend: $9 million
Domestic Gross: $20 million
Barbershop: The Next Cut is the third installment to the Barbershop franchise not including the lone spin-off film Beauty Shop. This franchise has been a dependable performer but its been over ten years since the last one in 2004.
Opening Weekend: $20 million
Domestic Gross: $50 million
Worldwide Total: $55 million
Everybody Wants Some
Opening Weekend: $12 million
Domestic Gross: $20 million
The Jungle Book is Disney’s latest adaption of the children’s classic and features the voices of Lupita Nyong’o, Scarlett Johansson, Idris Elba, Bill Murray, Ben Kingsley and Christopher Walken and was directed by Jon Favreau.
Opening Weekend: $50 million
Domestic Gross: $200 million
Worldwide Total: $386 million
Release on April 22nd, 2016
Opening Weekend: $5 million
Domestic Gross: $11 million
The Huntsman: Winter’s War is the highly anticipated sequel to the 2012 hit Snow White and the Huntsman. This film already has a big plus going for it over the original, no Kristen Stewart. Chris Hemsworth and Charlize Theron returns and Jessica Chastain and Emily Blunt join the cast.
Opening Weekend: $70 million
Domestic Gross: $251 million
Worldwide Total: $641 million
Some Kind of Different Me
Opening Weekend: $10 million
Domestic Gross: $17 million
Worldwide Total: $20 million