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Fantastic Four Box Office Projections and Results
Article originally published 7/28/2015. All updates will be at the bottom of this article.
Coming out on August 6th is Twentieth Century Fox’s reboot of Fantastic Four. The original film released in 2005 did well but the second addition flopped in the domestic market and further sequels where abandoned. With this reboot Fox looks to rekindle what it attempted to start with the last series though current projections have this film performing a little low but solid.
The original cast consisted of Loan Gruffudd, Michael Chiklis, Chris Evans who has since gone on to star as another Marvel hero Captain America, and Jessica Alba. The new Fantastic Four will star Miles Teller as Mr. Fantastic Reed Richards, Kate Mara The Invisible Woman Sue Storm, Michael B. Jordan as The Human Torch Johnny Storm, and Jamie Bell as The Thing Ben Grimm. Also featured in the films are Toby Kebbell as Victor Domashev, Tim Blake Nelson, and Chet Hanks who is the son of Tom Hanks. As in the original series this story centers on the origins of the Four’s powers following a teleporter incident to another universe and their struggles to control their power, while they are pitted against Dr. Doom. The film was directed and written by 2012’s Chronicle’s Josh Trank in his first attempt at a big tent pole blockbuster. Also, contributing to the screenplay is Simon Kinberg and Jeremy Slater.
First off, this film has a few negatives that are being held against it. Some of this negativity is a little unwarranted and really doesn’t mean anything in the long run. The most recent Fantastic Four, 2007’s Fantastic 4: Rise of the Silver Surfer was considered a flop but by flop its more so meant that it didn’t make as much money as the studio thought it should have. That film opened with $58 million, grossed $131.9 million domestically, and had a worldwide total of $289 million. Though the domestic total was very disappointing but the worldwide total did allow the film to pay for its self but underperformed its predecessor.
The only real negative that this film really has is the fact that when you watch the trailer, you feel as if you’ve already seen this movie. I had this same feeling that I’ve already seen it, from the reboot of Spider-man, which led me and some others to not be interested in the new franchise. Also, this film is directed by someone who has never directed a film of this scale before which may spell trouble for the film. There are some rumors of issues in the production stemming from the director that is partially the reason that led to him falling out on a Star Wars spinoff. On the positive side of things the trailer does look like that Fantastic Four may be a visual spectacle to rival all other Marvel films and there is some big anticipation with 98% our of 113 thousand Rotten Tomatoes users wanting to see it.
2005’s Fantastic Four had an opening weekend of $56 million, a domestic gross of $154.6 million, and worldwide total of $330.5 million. Marvel films have performed extremely in well past and this film is the third addition to the universe this year. Those other two films were Avengers: Age of Ultron and last months Ant-Man. Both of those films have performed extremely well but have been deemed slightly underwhelming. Apparently the standard is set a little too high when the $191 million opening weekend of Age of Ultron is found disappointing. The built in fan base for the Marvel universe has not disappointed in a while and shows no sign of slowing anytime soon.
Fantastic Four is currently expected to perform modestly opening around $55 million, a domestic gross of $144 million, and a worldwide gross of $390. I hinged all of my models on the performances of past Marvel efforts and assuming an opening weekend of $55 million. Based on other first films in the Marvel universe is a domestic gross of $169 million and a worldwide gross of $376.5 million. My other Marvel models have the film grossing from $144.9 to $149 million and worldwide gross from $229.6 million to $236.3 million.
With some of the negatives going against this film this film could flop or under perform but the film does have decent anticipation. Guardians of the Galaxy also, released in August last year to huge success and this film may be no different. Fantastic Four should have an opening weekend between $39.9 and $66.6 million. The domestic gross should fall between $110.7 and $184.5 million. The worldwide gross will be somewhere between $223.5 and $372.6 million.
My prediction is for an opening weekend of $53 million, a domestic gross of $150 million, and a worldwide total of $300 million. Time will tell what this film will do but I doubt it could duplicate the huge success Guardians of the Galaxy. I do believe this film will be able to at least launch a new franchise and hopefully they don’t stumble on the second attempts like the first franchise had done.
Fantastic Four Trailer
UPDATE 8/5/2015 OPENING WEEKEND FORECAST
The original prospects for Fantastic Four ranged from positive to solid but that was with old data, which I based my previous predictions on. Unfortunately, I was also betting that the film was going to turn out to be a decent enough effort to restart the franchise inspite of all negatives that I listed. The film could still perform the way I predicted but it is becoming more and more unlikley to happen.
On Rotten Tomatoes the film has a 20% rating based on ten reviews, which is not a good sign. Now these reviews could be a result of many factors such as the initial disinterest in the film by the reviewer, a dislike for the last attempts for the Fantastic Four that are then transposed onto this film, or the eight out of ten reviewers would not have liked the film anyways and don't represent the audeince that will actually flock to see the film and like it. So, Fantastic Four could resonate well with audiences just like Southpaw had done recently with poor reviews but ended up doing extreamly well with audeinces. After reading the reviews including the "good ones," which aren't raving reviews on there own, I feel that this film will not be as lucky as Southpaw. I have redone my models to get a better idea of how the film will now perform with its poorer prospects.
The most recent long range forcasts from Boxoffice.com has the film opening at $46 million and grossing $108 million domestically. These forcasts are down about $6 million from what they where intially and are one or two weeks old and that websites forcast where giving a solid opening but over the long run a poor performance. This could still be the case but the bigger qestion are these poor reviews also an indicator for a lackluster anticipation for the film.
What I did originally for my opening weekend was the same thing I did for Ant-Man several weeks ago, I looked at prior first weekends for other Marvel products which may not be applicable to this film. In other words, we may have the first recent flop from the Marvel universe in some time. Luckily with flops from Marvel they are not like 2000's The Aventures of Pluto Nash which had a budjet of $100 million but only made $7 million domestically. When Marvel films flop they just disasapoint by making a lot but not enough money like the two additions to the Hulk franchise with worlwide hauls of $245 and $263 million respectively.
My new models give an opening weekend range of $51.7 to $31 million, domestic gross of $143 to $86 million, and a worldwide gross from $287 to $172 million. So, from these new models the film could still succed but its more likley that the film will be disappointing.
No Marvel film in recent history has grossed less than 2003's Hulk with a domestic gross of $132 million. The average doemstic gross for the recent Marvel films is $258 million. The lowest worldwide gross for any of the Marvel films was also Hulk with $245 million and the Marvel's average is $631.7 million. Now these numbers are all based on my personal database of 26 films, which dates back to 2000's X-Men up till this years Age of Ultron but excludes Ant-Man because that film has not been in theaters for very long.
I'm going to gamble that the this Fantastic Four may turn out to be the worst performance of any Marvel film based soley that it is currently the poorest reviewed Marvel film ever. I predict an opening weekend of $25 million, a domestic gross of $80 million, and a worldwide total no higher than $200 million. I'm on the fence about the worldwide total, just because if a film performes badly here in the domestic market doesn't nessasarily translate to perform as poorly overseas. For example Terminator: Genisys, floped here with $87.8 million but has made $307.1 million worldwide as of today.
The reviews have become even worse for Fantstic Four and now has a 10% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes out of 93 reviews.
Early Thursday showings are not giving much sign of life for Fantastic Four. Audience responses to the film are only slightly better then the critics reviews with a current 28% liked it on Rotten Tomatoes. While updating my article for Mission: Impossible 5 I mentioned that with this films poor prospects that film has a chance at the number one spot in its second weekend.
UPDATE 8/8/2015 WEEKEND ESTIMATES
Fantastic Four currently has an estimated $27 million domestic opening.
The first weekend of Fantastic Four was $26.2 million domestically and a worldwide total of $60.2 million.
Fantastic Four is projected to do around $5 to $8 million this weekend. The total domestic gross is expected to be around $40 million.
The domestic gross is up to a estimated $41.96 million and a worldwide total of $102.1 million. After the final numbers are out, I'll have an idea of what the film will do in the end.
Fantastic Four's second weekend was slightly stronger than I expected but not enough to help the film over the long run. The gross is up to $42.1 million and a worldwide gross of $102.2 million. After the film finishes it's run in theaters it could gross up to $76.9 million but if its decline is steeper then what is normal, Fantastic Four may gross less.