ArtsAutosBooksBusinessEducationEntertainmentFamilyFashionFoodGamesGenderHealthHolidaysHomeHubPagesPersonal FinancePetsPoliticsReligionSportsTechnologyTravel

Fantastic Four Box Office Projections and Results

Updated on August 18, 2015
Kate Mara in Fantastic Four
Kate Mara in Fantastic Four | Source

Article originally published 7/28/2015. All updates will be at the bottom of this article.

Coming out on August 6th is Twentieth Century Fox’s reboot of Fantastic Four. The original film released in 2005 did well but the second addition flopped in the domestic market and further sequels where abandoned. With this reboot Fox looks to rekindle what it attempted to start with the last series though current projections have this film performing a little low but solid.

Jamie Bell in Fantastic Four
Jamie Bell in Fantastic Four | Source
Source

The original cast consisted of Loan Gruffudd, Michael Chiklis, Chris Evans who has since gone on to star as another Marvel hero Captain America, and Jessica Alba. The new Fantastic Four will star Miles Teller as Mr. Fantastic Reed Richards, Kate Mara The Invisible Woman Sue Storm, Michael B. Jordan as The Human Torch Johnny Storm, and Jamie Bell as The Thing Ben Grimm. Also featured in the films are Toby Kebbell as Victor Domashev, Tim Blake Nelson, and Chet Hanks who is the son of Tom Hanks. As in the original series this story centers on the origins of the Four’s powers following a teleporter incident to another universe and their struggles to control their power, while they are pitted against Dr. Doom. The film was directed and written by 2012’s Chronicle’s Josh Trank in his first attempt at a big tent pole blockbuster. Also, contributing to the screenplay is Simon Kinberg and Jeremy Slater.

Miles Teller in Fantastic Four
Miles Teller in Fantastic Four | Source

First off, this film has a few negatives that are being held against it. Some of this negativity is a little unwarranted and really doesn’t mean anything in the long run. The most recent Fantastic Four, 2007’s Fantastic 4: Rise of the Silver Surfer was considered a flop but by flop its more so meant that it didn’t make as much money as the studio thought it should have. That film opened with $58 million, grossed $131.9 million domestically, and had a worldwide total of $289 million. Though the domestic total was very disappointing but the worldwide total did allow the film to pay for its self but underperformed its predecessor.

The only real negative that this film really has is the fact that when you watch the trailer, you feel as if you’ve already seen this movie. I had this same feeling that I’ve already seen it, from the reboot of Spider-man, which led me and some others to not be interested in the new franchise. Also, this film is directed by someone who has never directed a film of this scale before which may spell trouble for the film. There are some rumors of issues in the production stemming from the director that is partially the reason that led to him falling out on a Star Wars spinoff. On the positive side of things the trailer does look like that Fantastic Four may be a visual spectacle to rival all other Marvel films and there is some big anticipation with 98% our of 113 thousand Rotten Tomatoes users wanting to see it.

2005’s Fantastic Four had an opening weekend of $56 million, a domestic gross of $154.6 million, and worldwide total of $330.5 million. Marvel films have performed extremely in well past and this film is the third addition to the universe this year. Those other two films were Avengers: Age of Ultron and last months Ant-Man. Both of those films have performed extremely well but have been deemed slightly underwhelming. Apparently the standard is set a little too high when the $191 million opening weekend of Age of Ultron is found disappointing. The built in fan base for the Marvel universe has not disappointed in a while and shows no sign of slowing anytime soon.

Fantastic Four is currently expected to perform modestly opening around $55 million, a domestic gross of $144 million, and a worldwide gross of $390. I hinged all of my models on the performances of past Marvel efforts and assuming an opening weekend of $55 million. Based on other first films in the Marvel universe is a domestic gross of $169 million and a worldwide gross of $376.5 million. My other Marvel models have the film grossing from $144.9 to $149 million and worldwide gross from $229.6 million to $236.3 million.

With some of the negatives going against this film this film could flop or under perform but the film does have decent anticipation. Guardians of the Galaxy also, released in August last year to huge success and this film may be no different. Fantastic Four should have an opening weekend between $39.9 and $66.6 million. The domestic gross should fall between $110.7 and $184.5 million. The worldwide gross will be somewhere between $223.5 and $372.6 million.

Fantastic Four

Dollars in the Millions
Dollars in the Millions

My prediction is for an opening weekend of $53 million, a domestic gross of $150 million, and a worldwide total of $300 million. Time will tell what this film will do but I doubt it could duplicate the huge success Guardians of the Galaxy. I do believe this film will be able to at least launch a new franchise and hopefully they don’t stumble on the second attempts like the first franchise had done.

Fantastic Four Trailer

UPDATE 8/5/2015 OPENING WEEKEND FORECAST

The original prospects for Fantastic Four ranged from positive to solid but that was with old data, which I based my previous predictions on. Unfortunately, I was also betting that the film was going to turn out to be a decent enough effort to restart the franchise inspite of all negatives that I listed. The film could still perform the way I predicted but it is becoming more and more unlikley to happen.

On Rotten Tomatoes the film has a 20% rating based on ten reviews, which is not a good sign. Now these reviews could be a result of many factors such as the initial disinterest in the film by the reviewer, a dislike for the last attempts for the Fantastic Four that are then transposed onto this film, or the eight out of ten reviewers would not have liked the film anyways and don't represent the audeince that will actually flock to see the film and like it. So, Fantastic Four could resonate well with audiences just like Southpaw had done recently with poor reviews but ended up doing extreamly well with audeinces. After reading the reviews including the "good ones," which aren't raving reviews on there own, I feel that this film will not be as lucky as Southpaw. I have redone my models to get a better idea of how the film will now perform with its poorer prospects.

The most recent long range forcasts from Boxoffice.com has the film opening at $46 million and grossing $108 million domestically. These forcasts are down about $6 million from what they where intially and are one or two weeks old and that websites forcast where giving a solid opening but over the long run a poor performance. This could still be the case but the bigger qestion are these poor reviews also an indicator for a lackluster anticipation for the film.

What I did originally for my opening weekend was the same thing I did for Ant-Man several weeks ago, I looked at prior first weekends for other Marvel products which may not be applicable to this film. In other words, we may have the first recent flop from the Marvel universe in some time. Luckily with flops from Marvel they are not like 2000's The Aventures of Pluto Nash which had a budjet of $100 million but only made $7 million domestically. When Marvel films flop they just disasapoint by making a lot but not enough money like the two additions to the Hulk franchise with worlwide hauls of $245 and $263 million respectively.

My new models give an opening weekend range of $51.7 to $31 million, domestic gross of $143 to $86 million, and a worldwide gross from $287 to $172 million. So, from these new models the film could still succed but its more likley that the film will be disappointing.

No Marvel film in recent history has grossed less than 2003's Hulk with a domestic gross of $132 million. The average doemstic gross for the recent Marvel films is $258 million. The lowest worldwide gross for any of the Marvel films was also Hulk with $245 million and the Marvel's average is $631.7 million. Now these numbers are all based on my personal database of 26 films, which dates back to 2000's X-Men up till this years Age of Ultron but excludes Ant-Man because that film has not been in theaters for very long.

I'm going to gamble that the this Fantastic Four may turn out to be the worst performance of any Marvel film based soley that it is currently the poorest reviewed Marvel film ever. I predict an opening weekend of $25 million, a domestic gross of $80 million, and a worldwide total no higher than $200 million. I'm on the fence about the worldwide total, just because if a film performes badly here in the domestic market doesn't nessasarily translate to perform as poorly overseas. For example Terminator: Genisys, floped here with $87.8 million but has made $307.1 million worldwide as of today.

UPDATE 8/6/2015

The reviews have become even worse for Fantstic Four and now has a 10% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes out of 93 reviews.

UPDATE 8/8/2015

Early Thursday showings are not giving much sign of life for Fantastic Four. Audience responses to the film are only slightly better then the critics reviews with a current 28% liked it on Rotten Tomatoes. While updating my article for Mission: Impossible 5 I mentioned that with this films poor prospects that film has a chance at the number one spot in its second weekend.

UPDATE 8/8/2015 WEEKEND ESTIMATES

Fantastic Four currently has an estimated $27 million domestic opening.

UPDATE 8/10/2015

The first weekend of Fantastic Four was $26.2 million domestically and a worldwide total of $60.2 million.

UPDATE 8/12/2015

Fantastic Four is projected to do around $5 to $8 million this weekend. The total domestic gross is expected to be around $40 million.

UPDATE 8/17/2015

The domestic gross is up to a estimated $41.96 million and a worldwide total of $102.1 million. After the final numbers are out, I'll have an idea of what the film will do in the end.

UPDATE 8/18/2015

Fantastic Four's second weekend was slightly stronger than I expected but not enough to help the film over the long run. The gross is up to $42.1 million and a worldwide gross of $102.2 million. After the film finishes it's run in theaters it could gross up to $76.9 million but if its decline is steeper then what is normal, Fantastic Four may gross less.

Comments

    0 of 8192 characters used
    Post Comment

    • emge profile image

      Madan 

      3 years ago from Abu Dhabi

      I havent seen the movie yet , but I hope to see it soon.

    • Austin Marion profile imageAUTHOR

      Austin James Marion 

      3 years ago from Appleton, Wi

      Thanks. It's too bad the film flopped. After seeing the trailers it looked to be a dark vision for the franchise and with that cast, it would have been very good but it appears to have been bungled in the end. Marvel has been churning out some decent to some very well done tent poles in the past and in the near future. I had high hopes for it and I really wanted to see it succeed. Hopefully in the future the rights will revert from Twentieth Century Fox to being completly under the Marvel banner at Disney and they will give it another shot.

    • lions44 profile image

      CJ Kelly 

      3 years ago from Auburn, WA

      Your original prediction was close. It was a disappointing opening. I'm not a fan of Marvel movies, so even I saw it I could not tell how it measures up to the others, but I'm still surprised. These films always seem like gold. The appearances of the cast did not seem to go well either. I saw them on a late night show last week and they seemed awkward. Good review. Voted up.

    working

    This website uses cookies

    As a user in the EEA, your approval is needed on a few things. To provide a better website experience, hubpages.com uses cookies (and other similar technologies) and may collect, process, and share personal data. Please choose which areas of our service you consent to our doing so.

    For more information on managing or withdrawing consents and how we handle data, visit our Privacy Policy at: https://hubpages.com/privacy-policy#gdpr

    Show Details
    Necessary
    HubPages Device IDThis is used to identify particular browsers or devices when the access the service, and is used for security reasons.
    LoginThis is necessary to sign in to the HubPages Service.
    Google RecaptchaThis is used to prevent bots and spam. (Privacy Policy)
    AkismetThis is used to detect comment spam. (Privacy Policy)
    HubPages Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide data on traffic to our website, all personally identifyable data is anonymized. (Privacy Policy)
    HubPages Traffic PixelThis is used to collect data on traffic to articles and other pages on our site. Unless you are signed in to a HubPages account, all personally identifiable information is anonymized.
    Amazon Web ServicesThis is a cloud services platform that we used to host our service. (Privacy Policy)
    CloudflareThis is a cloud CDN service that we use to efficiently deliver files required for our service to operate such as javascript, cascading style sheets, images, and videos. (Privacy Policy)
    Google Hosted LibrariesJavascript software libraries such as jQuery are loaded at endpoints on the googleapis.com or gstatic.com domains, for performance and efficiency reasons. (Privacy Policy)
    Features
    Google Custom SearchThis is feature allows you to search the site. (Privacy Policy)
    Google MapsSome articles have Google Maps embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
    Google ChartsThis is used to display charts and graphs on articles and the author center. (Privacy Policy)
    Google AdSense Host APIThis service allows you to sign up for or associate a Google AdSense account with HubPages, so that you can earn money from ads on your articles. No data is shared unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
    Google YouTubeSome articles have YouTube videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
    VimeoSome articles have Vimeo videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
    PaypalThis is used for a registered author who enrolls in the HubPages Earnings program and requests to be paid via PayPal. No data is shared with Paypal unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
    Facebook LoginYou can use this to streamline signing up for, or signing in to your Hubpages account. No data is shared with Facebook unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
    MavenThis supports the Maven widget and search functionality. (Privacy Policy)
    Marketing
    Google AdSenseThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Google DoubleClickGoogle provides ad serving technology and runs an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Index ExchangeThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    SovrnThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Facebook AdsThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Amazon Unified Ad MarketplaceThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    AppNexusThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    OpenxThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Rubicon ProjectThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    TripleLiftThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Say MediaWe partner with Say Media to deliver ad campaigns on our sites. (Privacy Policy)
    Remarketing PixelsWe may use remarketing pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to advertise the HubPages Service to people that have visited our sites.
    Conversion Tracking PixelsWe may use conversion tracking pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to identify when an advertisement has successfully resulted in the desired action, such as signing up for the HubPages Service or publishing an article on the HubPages Service.
    Statistics
    Author Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide traffic data and reports to the authors of articles on the HubPages Service. (Privacy Policy)
    ComscoreComScore is a media measurement and analytics company providing marketing data and analytics to enterprises, media and advertising agencies, and publishers. Non-consent will result in ComScore only processing obfuscated personal data. (Privacy Policy)
    Amazon Tracking PixelSome articles display amazon products as part of the Amazon Affiliate program, this pixel provides traffic statistics for those products (Privacy Policy)