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Hot Pursuit Box Office Predictions

Updated on May 11, 2015

UPDATE 5/11/2015

Hot Pursuit is officially an epic fail. Preceded by horrendous reviews going into it’s first weekend, the film only grossed $13.3 million. With this dismal start Hot Pursuit will gross around $30 million, most likely under that mark.

Source

Article originally published 5/5/2015.

Hot Pursuit will unfortunately be the first disappointment of the 2015 summer box office. The fact that it’s not going to do well is really to bad, I felt that after watching the trailer several months ago that like it is going to be a very funny buddy comedy. Also, with Reese Witherspoon fresh off of an Academy Award nomination and Sofia Vergara well known for ABC’s Modern Family would have been a little bit of a draw for the film. Very little attention is being paid to the film and perhaps Avengers: Age of Ultron is partially to blame, stealing some of the spot light that might have shown onto it, but I find that unlikely, since they are two different audiences. It mainly seams as if a lot of people are just not that interested in it and also the recent TV trailers don’t paint as good of picture of the film as the theatrical trailer did.

Reese Witherspoon and Sofia Vergara
Reese Witherspoon and Sofia Vergara | Source

As mentioned before, Hot Pursuit stars Reese Witherspoon as a police officer assigned to protect the recently widowed wife of a drug kingpin, played by Sofia Vergara. They then, find themselves on the run from corrupt cops and would be assassins. In hindsight Hot Pursuit comes off as a stereotypical buddy cop comedy. Right now the film is trending to open and gross low and as mentioned earlier, there is not much excitement for the film. It is possible that the film could perform better in the foreign market, but these prospects seam rather unlikely of making up for it’s low earnings domestically. Hopefully, Warner Bros. had managed the budget wisely and didn’t shell out that much for this one, because it’s not uncommon for budget of a comedy like this to be upwards of $70, $80, or even $100 million dollars. For example, the Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson 2012 comedy The Internship had an estimated budget of $95 million counting the advertising dollars.

Hot Pursuit will open this Friday, May 8th, grossing anywhere from $16 to $20 million dollars. Either way, the film will be a distant second to Age of Ultron, which will be around the $80 to $100 million-dollar mark. Depending on word of mouth after it’s first weekend, I have models that do show a little hope. The film could possibly not drop as much in it’s second week and be a little stronger in the long run. The best case model that I have, is if it does have a decent second week, Hot Pursuit could gross upwards of $66 million or more in the end. Most likely, the film will gross between $52 and $63 million. The lowest domestic gross that my models show is $43 million. As for the international box office, I’m unsure of how well the film will do worldwide. Typically films double their money internationally, but comedies are hit or miss and it’s hard to tell how Hot Pursuit will be received.

My overall prediction for the film is that is probably open with $18.5 million. By end of it’s second weekend the gross should be sitting around $29 million. When Hot Pursuit wraps up it should gross about $58 million.

Hot Pursuit Trailer

UPDATE 5/8/15

Hot Pursuit is trending to open as forecasted earlier and could even open lower. The film has received scathing reviews and has a Rotten Tomatoes rating of just 7%. This film should also, suffer from poor word of mouth and gross around $50 million.

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