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Inside Out & Ted 2 Box Office Projections
Article originally published on 6/12/2015. All updates will be at the bottom of this article.
The weekends of June 19th and June 26th will feature an interesting mix in the form of a kid’s film and a kid’s film meant for adults. The two films that bring us that mix is the new offering from Pixar Inside Out and Seth McFarland’s sequel to his 2012 blockbuster Ted. Both films will be working in the shadow of another tent pole film Jurassic World, which is shaping up to being far larger success than expected and it could scratch at both films opening weekend.
On June 19th, Pixar’s latest offering Inside Out will premier. Directed by the same director behind other Pixar hits Up and Monsters Inc., Pete Doctor. The story centers on the emotions in a girls mind fighting for control as she had recently moved to a new town. Lending their voices to Inside Out are Diane Lane, Mindy Kaling, Amy Poehler, Bill Hader, Kyle MacLachlan, Richard Kind, Lewis Black, and Phyllis Smith. Judging by the trailer the film looks like it’s a return to the outside the box story telling that’s been lacking from the last few of Pixar’s films. This film should also add a little bit more to Disney’s coffers for the year, which will be one of their biggest in quiet some time. After Age of Ultron and Cinderella have been making big money, and a few more release they have left for the year including Star Wars The Force Awakens, Disney will come out on top. Pixar also has another film coming out later this year, The Good Dinosaur. Inside Out is also the first time I’ve seen a Pixar film tout its cast in the trailers.
Out on the 26th, is the much anticipated sequel to the 2012 hit Ted, Ted 2. I’m actually worried about this sequel because I don’t think it will live up to the $218 million gross of the original. Seth McFarlane’s most recent offering A Million Way’s to Die in the West flopped, mainly to do with the fact that a lot of people really did not like Ted, even though they flocked to go see it in the first place. But, McFarlane’s die hard fans did love it and A Million Way’s to Die in the West was (I felt) a much funnier and better film then Ted and do expect Ted 2 to be much better then its predecessor. Now, I loved Ted, but I first saw the extended version of the film, which is a lot better cut than the theatrical version. Unfortunately, the theatrical cut is the version most people had seen. My biggest beef with the original film is that there is not a really good laugh till the thunder buddy song, which is twenty minutes in and that leaves some people with a feeling of this is not that funny for the rest of the movie. In the end I do expect Ted 2 to be successful, but not as big as the first. Mark Wahlberg and Seth McFarlane both reprise their roles and are joined by Amanda Seyfried, Liam Neeson, Morgan Freeman, and a cameo by Tom Brady.
Pixar has proven to be one of the most dependable box office draws ever. They have literally never had a feature film bomb at box office, which is something that not very many production companies can say. Also, Pixar’s films are incredibly predictable. The average opening weekend of $56.8 million, all though this is including two opening weekends that were initially limited releases, which were A Bug’s Life and Toy Story 2. When you take out those two releases the average opening weekend for a film from Pixar is $66.3 million. We can take this further by looking at the averages since 2000 and since 2010 to get a better idea of what a modern release will do. The average since 2000 is $69.7 million and since 2010 is $86.5 million.
What you obviously get is a trend of rising openings, which is uncommon with what is mostly, unestablished titles. These day’s unestablished titles tend to (not always, but mostly) not do as well as what sequels to successful franchises do. Pixar is able to do this because it has developed a dedicated audience to the studio that flocks to see their film. This audience is due to any film from Pixar basically being considered in the same universe. One Disney’s other properties Marvel, has also developed a similar audience that has managed to propel the business done by new titles, such as 2014’s surprise hit Guardians of the Galaxy.
The average Pixar films domestic gross is $258 million with the releases since 2010 is $307 million. Disney has been the studio to most profit from international releases, which at this point in time is where you make most of your money and Pixar’s film have been having the same success. The average worldwide total for a Pixar film is $611 million and since 2010 has been $785 million.
Inside Out has already been received amazing reviews currently receiving a 100 percent fresh rating on Rotten Tomato’s. Projections as of last week (June 5th) had the film opening at $71 million and grossing domestically $280 million. The release of Jurassic World the preceding weekend will have a little effect on Inside Out initial earning but have no effect for it’s long term prospects.
I’ve worked out a few different possibilities for the film, based on prior Pixar performances as well as previous releases in the month of June that have opened between $50 and $89 million. The average of all of these models is an opening weekend of $73.5 million, a domestic gross of $274 million, and a worldwide total of $674 million. All of these models are based on current available projections that are a month old, but with the great reviews as well as large audience anticipation the film should open larger than anticipated. The film should open between $55 and $91.9 million, have a $205 to $343 million domestic gross, and could gross up to $843 million worldwide. Again these ranges are based on the available projections.
My prediction for Inside Out is an opening weekend of $75 million, a domestic gross of $300 million, and a worldwide total of $700 million. I think there is a possibility the film could open even higher, over $80 million but with Jurassic World coming out the weekend before that films second weekend could make this unlikely.
Ted 2 should open solidly off of the success of the first installment, no matter what. The long-range success is what the biggest question for Ted 2. As stated before, Seth McFarland’s recent film did not fare well at the box office as well as some negative responses I’ve heard from many other people whom have seen Ted. These two negatives could impact this films final gross.
Based on current projections generated from my models is an opening from $39 to $66 million, a domestic gross from $161 to $269 million, with a worldwide total from $359 to $599 million. These models do suggest a good outcome for Ted and the current projections have the film grossing around $180 million. I’m going to hold off on making a prediction for this film because there is more data I need to see, because the film may not fair well in the long run from bad word of mouth.
These two films, coupled with Jurassic World, should get the year back on track. The current trends suggest that the this years box office may not be as high as anticipated due to a few underperforming films like Tomorrowland. These trends are perhaps misleading because there are several big films that have not been released yet and May was a little soft due to lack of additional titles that would have been released in that month if it weren’t for Age of Ultron. June tends to be a slightly down month compared with May and July, but that will not be the case this year.
Currently the early weekend forcast for In and Out is it debuting at the number two spot under Jurassic World bringing it anywhere from $60 to $70 million. With the great reviews the film is receiving that amount by higher but the shadow of Jurassic World may be to great for In and Out to perform under. Either way the film should perform well over the long haul.
Inside Out's opening weekend was an estimated $91 million and wasn't effected one bit by Jurassic Worlds second weekend. Current modles suggest that the film could gross around $287 million, but with great reviews and extreamly favorable word of mouth that amount should be a little higher. Depending on how the films second weekend works out the film should gross over the $300 million mark.
Pixar's top three film of all-time are Toy Story 3 at $415 million, Finding Nemo at $380 million, and Up at $293 million. Inside Out will surpass Up and could be scratching at Finding Nemo's total. The film will at least be Pixar's thrid highest grossing film of all-time.
The films worldwide total is already up to $132 million. Inside Out is well on it's way to making at a minimum of $700 million worldwide.
UPDATE 6/24/2015 Prediction for Ted 2
My prediction for Ted 2 is a solid opening of $60 million. The domestic gross will fall short of the original at $160 million. The worldwide total will be a solid $350 million.
Ted 2 is currently tracking to open at $54 million, which will be a good and solid opening for the R rated comedy. This opening will put it just ahead of Inside Out at $53 million and just under the behemoth Jurassic World at $55 million. This weekend will be a tight race for the top spot.
Ted 2 surprises with a disappointing estimated opening of $33 million and $53 million worldwide. Currently my models suggest a final domestic gross somewhere between $122 and $204 million domestically.
Inside Out continues to motor on at the box office inspite of having Jurassic World to contend with. The film brought in an additional $52 million but still in the second spot at the box office. So far Inside Out's domestic gross is up to $184.9 million based on the current estiments. Based on its second weekend the film will most likley end up grossing over $350 million domestically and does have a chance of grossing over $400 million. Worldwide the film has made a total of $266.4 million and may end up bring in a total of $900 million in the end.
Inside Out continues to motor on in its thrid week in theaters and current estimates have the film in the number one spot at $30 million. Its domestic gross is up to $246 million and $327 million worldwide.
Ted 2 has droped sharply in its second week and has grossed an estimated $58 million domestically. The film is performing well overseas and its worldwide gross is up to $86.6 million. I estimate a final gross around $166 million domesticaly and $255 million worldwide making the film a success but disapointing to the studio.
As of Wednesday, Inside Out has grossed over $500 million worldwide.
So far, Inside Out has roped in $320 million domestically and $550.1 million worldwide in its theatrical run. As of right now, Inside Out looks to become Pixars second highest grossing film of all time in the domestic gross and may possibly hit Toy Story 3 high mark of $415.2 million. Currently, I'm unsure if Inside Out's worldwide total will hit the high marks set by either Toy Story 3 or Finding Nemo and will most likely be under $900 million.
Ted 2's domestic gross now sits around $79.5 million domestically and $153.5 million worldwide. The film has performed solidly but well under the success of the original Ted.