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Jurassic World Box Office Predictions and Results
Updates to this article are at the bottom. Article originally published 5/28/2015.
The release that I’ve been looking forward to for the last year is the new addition to the Jurassic Park franchise Jurassic World and it will bow at a theater near you on June 12th. I’ve been looking forward to this one because on June 11th, 1993 I saw the original and was amazed as an eight year old. After spending most of the T-Rex attack in the middle of the film with my buried in my theater seat in terror, I was sure a T-Rex was going to burst into my house at night and eat me. So with the original impaled permanently in my childhood memories I can't hide my excitement for new installment 22 years and one day after the premier of the original.
The only drawback for Jurassic World is that they’re no main character from the original reprising their role with the exception to one of the supporting players BD Wong, who played a scientist in the first film. A friend and I where secretly hoping they would find a way to bring back a one armed Samuel L. Jackson. There would probably be nothing greater than seeing a one armed Jackson trying to assist the characters of the new film. Fortunately for this one, it stars Guardian of the Galaxy’s Chris Pratt. In this film Jurassic Park has finally opened to the public, but the scientist of the park are not done playing God and have created a new genetically engineered dinosaur to chase after the park guest. Also starring is Bryce Dallas Howard, Judy Greer and Vincent D’Onofrio. Jurassic World is written by Derek Connolly and Colin Trevorrow and directed by Trevorrow. This film looks poised to replicate the magic of the previous three films and find a fresh audience 22 years after the original.
The first two Jurassic Park where huge successes at the box office, while the third installment was a mere blip on the radar compared to its predecessors. The original opened at a solid $47 million, went on gross $402.45 million domestically, and made a huge $960 million worldwide. At the time it was the second highest grossing film domestically. The Lost World: Jurassic Park released in 1997, opened at $72 million, made $229 million domestically, and had a worldwide total $618.6 million. Jurassic Park III released in 2001, did perform well at the box office, but it put the nail in the coffin for the franchise. Jurassic Park III had a solid opening at $50.7 million, grossed $181 million, and had a worldwide total of $368.7 million. The first film was rereleased recently, remastered for 3D and performed extremely well, showing that the franchise was still viable.
Jurassic Park was a freak of nature back in 1993, mainly because it was something no one had ever seen before, much like Titanic, Avatar, or Star Wars were. You shouldn’t look for this new installment to match the great heights of the original, but it should be an end to the decline that the second and third films had experienced. Jurassic World has experienced rising prospects in its projections over the last month. There is defiantly high anticipation for the film; Rottentomatoes.com currently has 99% of 117,062 users wanting to see the film. The bigger question is how well the film will perform over time with word of mouth, which will give a greater possibility of higher returns in the end. Jurassic World also has the advantage of no real competition either prior or after its release that could greatly affect the films opening two weeks.
The current projections have Jurassic World opening up at $100 million and grossing $260 million. These numbers may be soft and most likely will rise in the weeks preceding the film. Jurassic World also has a chance of having the highest opening weekend gross in the month of June, which was set by Man of Steel in 2013 at $116.6 million. My models based on the openings of other films released in June suggest it could open as low as $77 million and gross as high as $337 million. Additional, June models have the film opening as low as $85 million and gross as high as $302 million.
Jurassic World should open from $71 to $119 million and gross domestically from $212 to $356 million. Like its predecessors, this movie should be a big draw in international markets and will end up with a worldwide total somewhere between $549 and $916 million. My prediction for Jurassic World is that it will open at $110 million, with a domestic gross of $290 million, and have a worldwide total of $750 million.
The excitement for Jurassic World continues to rise as its pending release looms. Currently on Rottentomatoes.com 99 percent out of 121,936 users want to see the film. The newest forecast for Jurassic World has the film opening over $120 million and grossing $303. I’ve also seen projections that have the film opening north of $135 million, but I think these may be way overestimations.
I hearken back to late April as projections, mine included became over inflated and I think the same thing is happening in this case. The film is trending well on Twitter and Facebook but it is far lower than other pending releases. I’m going to stick by my predictions of an opening of $110 million, a domestic gross of $290 million though it could easily gross over $300 million, but I’m going to update my worldwide total up to $900 million. This film could just as easily end up with a worldwide total over $1 billion.
I have also updated my models to reflect the increased anticipation for the film. Jurassic World’s opening should fall between $82 and $137 million. The films gross will be between $246 and $410 million. The worldwide total should fall between $652 million and $1 billion.
Jurassic World is performing far better then any one could imagine. The film is currently trending to open anywhere from $160 to $200 million. This could spell great long term success over $400 million total haul. The film will most definitly cross $1 billion world wide.
Jurassic World has opened to the second largest opening ever. Current estiments have the films opening weekend at $204.5 million and should end up grossing around $500 million domestically in the end. The film has also performed extreamly well overseas, currently siting at a worldwide total of $511.7 million well on it's way to perhaps making close to or over $2 billion.
With this way better then expected opening weekend the film will show a little better longevity over the next month casting a bit of a shadow over the next few weeks. This shadow will stunt the initial few weeks of Pixar's In and Out and fellow Universal release Ted 2. These two film will have to do the bulk of their bussiness in the weeks following their first weekend, which should not hurt In and Out but depending on how word of mouth goes for Ted 2 it could hurt it's longterm prospects. The film that will be most affected is Terminator Genisys out on 7/1/2015, which already has poor prospects but who knows the box office has been hard to project this year and that film could turn out being a surprise.
UPDATE 6/17/2015 Long Range Projections
Jurassic World's official opening weekend was $208.8 million. That amount gives this film the second spot on the all times openings list, second to 2012's The Avengers: Age of Ultron. The film is showing signs of having a monstrous second week. On Monday, Jurassic World added another $25 million to it's gross putting it's domestic total up to $234.1 million and so far its worldwide total is up to $549.7 million. With the film still bringing in large amounts during the week this should follow it into this weekend. The film should still be sitting at the number one spot after this weekend and perhaps the following weekend as well. How next weekend plays out will dictate the long term will shape out for the film but either way the film is already bought and payed for.
I created a few models to try and determin the long range posibilities for the film. The first model I used is a model that uses the trends of all films that had an opening weekend of $121 million and up. This model sugests the lowest posibility of $562.8 million domestically. My other models give higher domestic grosses. Uesing two of my original models that I used for my original projections; June Openers of $90 to $120 million, the domestic gross could be $632.1 million. The other of the original models was based on the top 100 films of the last five years and it gives a gross domestic of $704.4 million.
The only other film to open over $200 million was Mavel's The Avengers, I used the trends of this film to project another posibility. Useing these trends, Jurassic World's domestic gross could be around $627.4 million. Either way the film is going to earn a lot of money. The worldwide total suggested by the models ranges from $1.4 to $1.7 billion. I personally think the film will reach close to $2 billion worldwide.
The average of all of models is a domestic gross of $606 million and a worldwide total of $1.6 billion. The long term is all dependent on what the film does this weekend, which will dictate what the film will do over its time in theaters. The films gross after it's second weekend should land somewhere between $303 and $378 million. Jurassic World's domestic total will most likely land between $515 and $757 million with the worldwide gross being between $1.3 to $2 billion.
Updated Long Range Models
Jurassic World perfomed well better that what I thought was possible and has increased it's domestic total to an estimated $398.23 million. Current models suggest a domestic gross of $663.7 million and a worldwide tally of $1.76 billion. The films worldwide total is up to an estimated $981 million and should surpass the $1 billion mark some time mid week.
Jurassic World is tracking to still be at the top spot in it's third weekend but by a very small margin over the new release Ted 2.
Jurassic World has continued to steamroll on with impresive totals since it's release and will cross the $1.5 billion mark sometime this week. More impressive the film is going to surpass the $658 domestic total set by Titanic in 1997. This move to the second highest grossing film of all-time will occur some time in the next few weeks.
The total for Jurrasic World will be high mark for Star Wars to over come later this year but alot of the current projections for that film have it possibly being the highest grossing film of all-time.
Jurassic World has crossed over the $1.5 billion worldwide mark this past weekend. The domestic total are up to $611.1 million.
Jurassic World is still bearing down on the number two spot all-time but the film is taking a little longer than I thought due to a steeper decline then expected. Universal has started a new advertising blitz, which should encourage a rise in receipts in the next few weeks. The film sits at $639.5 million as of today and is just just over $19 million left to hit the mark set by Titanic.
Jurassic World continues to near Titanic's mark and after the Labor Day weekend, the domestic gross will be around $646.6 million. The film will have just $12 million to go, which it should reach in the next few weeks.
FINAL UPDATE 11/3/2015
The final figures for Jurassic World are $651.8 million domestic and $1.6 billion worldwide total. The film is currently the third highest grossing film of all time and made a good swing at the second place holder Titanic but fell just short in the end. In normal years this astronomical total would be enough to secure the highest grossing spot for the year but Star Wars has the potential to dethrone it.