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Mad Max: Fury Road Box Office Predictions

Updated on August 17, 2015

UPDATE 8/17/2015

Mad Max has almost finished up its run in theaters before coming out on home video on September 1st. The domestic gross sits at $152,604,976 and $373,104,976 worldwide.

UPDATE 6/1/2015

Mad Max: Fury Road, had crossed over the $100 million threshold last week and continues to power on. This past weekend the film has made an estimated $115.9 million. The film is also still performing well overseas, so far making $240.2 million.

UPDATE 5/26/2015

Mad Max: Fury Road has had an impressive second weekend with it’s gross up to an estimated $95.5 million. The Mad Max reboot has also fared well worldwide by grossing $211.6 million so far. On a budget of $210 million, the film is bought and paid for giving new and viable life to this 80’s action franchise. As of right now my models have the films final gross ending up somewhere around $200 million.

UPDATE 5/18/2015

Mad Max: Fury Road went on to make a solid $44.4 million domestically and a total of $108.4 million worldwide this past weekend. The solid reviews and audience reactions to the film means that word of mouth will propel this film in the long haul. With this successful reboot, Mad Max will defiantly be back for another installment in the next few years.

Source
Tom Hardy and Charlize Theron in Mad Max: Fury Road
Tom Hardy and Charlize Theron in Mad Max: Fury Road | Source

Article Originaly Published 5/12/2014

In 1979, the world was treated by the now classic Australian science fiction flick Mad Max. The film featured newcomer Mel Gibson staring as the title character and directed by George Miller. The franchise would go on to produce two more installments Mad Max 2: The Road Warrior and Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome. The film would also make Mel Gibson a bonafide leading man and cement George Miller’s name as a visionary director. It’s been 30 years since Beyond Thunderdome and George Miller is ready to bring the character back in an action packed new installment Mad Max: Fury Road. This film will be a big success and bring Mad Max to new audience.

Mel Gibson will not be reprise his role, probably for the best since he is due for a tie-raid of some kind. Filling Gibson’s shoes is the amazing Tom Hardy, who has lit up the screen in Inception and The Dark Knight Rises. The film also stars Charlize Theron as a one armed and shaved head woman helping Max and she still looks incredibly beautiful in-spite of it. In supporting roles are Nicholas Hoult, Rosie Huntington-Whiteley, and in his second appearance in the franchise Hugh Keays Byrne as the antagonist of the film. This will be George Millers first R rated film in quite some time, his most recent credits include Happy Feet and it’s sequel and Babe: Pig in the City. If this film rakes in what I think it will, the $150 million budget will be money well spent.

Hugh Keys-Byrne in Mad Max: Fury Road
Hugh Keys-Byrne in Mad Max: Fury Road | Source

There are a couple of possibilities for Fury Road and no matter what this film does domestically it will be huge success internationally, grossing around $400 million. To try to gage the success of this film I ended up leaning on the 2012 film Prometheus as a comparison, since it’s an R rated science fiction film and it was reboot with a similar type of fan following. The film should open with a strong opening of around $38 million. Using the trends that Prometheus set, Mad Max would gross about $94 million, but make a huge amount internationally. I do thing that end gross is really soft, but not out of the question. If that were to happen, Fury Road would be a little bit of a disappointment domestically, but still pay for it’s self.

Possible trends for Mad Max: Fury Road
Possible trends for Mad Max: Fury Road

Films that have an R rating tend to make money over time, mainly because they tend to cater to an older crowed. So, they tend to not have these explosive huge openings and power along for their first two week and drop sharply afterward, like Avengers: Age of Ultron. Following the trends set by other R Rated films, the film would not only make a lot internationally, but also gross upwards $203 million. If it were to make that much domestically, Mad Max would be back in a big way, but that’s a little high for something that has an established fanbase, but it hasn’t been really prominent for 30 years. This is probably a scenario better suited for the next film, where excitement will be a lot larger. It’s that thinking that drove me to look at Prometheus, because I feel the those trends are going to be more reflective of what the film will do in the end.

After going through a couple of other relevant models Mad Max: Fury Road should open between $33 and $42 million. By the end of its second weekend which is Memorial Day weekend, it should be sitting somewhere between $52 and $66 million. Mad Max’s final domestic gross will range from $110 to $140 million and with a final world wide gross of about $300 to $450 million. My official prediction will be an opening weekend of $38 million, a final gross of $130 million, and make $400 million worldwide.

Mad Max: Fury Road Trailer

Update 5/12/2015

Mad Max: Fury Road has impeccable reviews. Right now on Rottentomatoes.com, the film has a fresh rating of 98%. This could spell great word of mouth following the films release and allow the film to gross more in the long term.

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