Minions and The Gallows Box Office Projections and Results
This article was originally published 6/22/2014. All updates will be at the bottom of this article.
July 10th will feature one of the biggest films of the summer and another found footage horror film that is looking to be the next Paranormal Activity. The two films is the Despicable Me spinoff Minions and the other is The Gallows from the producers of Insidious and Paranormal Activity. Minions is poised to be huge and give Pixar’s Inside Out a run for its money and end up being one of the highest grossing films of the year. As for The Gallows it will perform solidly but not really hit the level of Paranormal Activity.
Minions of course fallows those lovable yellow helpers of Gru from Despicable Me and Despicable Me 2. In this spin off, the story of the Minions before Gru will be told, when they serve various vicious masters including Napoleon and a T-Rex but eventually find themselves working for the super-villain Scarlet Overkill in a plot to take over the world. The film stars Pierre Coffin as the Minions and Sandra Bullock as Scarlett Overkill. Also featured in the film are Jon Hamm, Michael Keaton, Allison Janney, Steve Coogan, Geoffrey Rush, and Steve Carell as a young Gru. The film is directed by the voice of the Minions himself Pierre Coffin and Kyle Balda and the screenplay was written by Brian Lynch.
The Gallows follows a group of friends who attempt to honor the anniversary of a tragedy, where a student was accidently hung to death during a school play but finds themselves haunted by that killed student. Jason Blum who also brought you Insidious, Paranormal Activity, and Lawless produces the film. The film was written and directed by Travis Cluff and Chris Lofing. Like Paranormal Activity, the cast is made up of unknown actors including Cassidy Gifford, Pfeifer Brown, Ryan Shoos, and Reese Mishler. The Gallows is a very low budget film so it will not take much for it to make back it’s investment.
The Gallows will definitely not go down as the biggest found footage horror films, which I’m unsure how this genera hasn’t become severely stale nearly fifteen years since Blair Witch but they keep on coming. Current trends for the film have its opening weekend around $11 million and a domestic gross of $26.5 million. The film does have a little bit of a buzz surrounding it but this is mainly due to a very well made and engaging trailer featuring a cover of the Nirvana classic Smells Like Teen Spirit by Think Up Anger.
According to my models the film could open as low as $7.5 million or as high as $11.5 million. As for the domestic gross the film could gross as low as $26.4 million and as high as 38.7. Currently the film is trending to be a mild success but wont be anything spectacular, unless the film really catches on with word of mouth. The film should open between $11.2 and $6.7 million and gross between $35.6 and 21.3 million. I’m currently thinking that the film will open around $6 million but perform solidly with a final gross at $25 million.
The first two films of the Despicable Me franchise performed extremely well, and yes that is an understatement. Despicable Me opened with $53.3 million, grossed $251.5 million domestically, and brought in a $543 million worldwide total. Despicable Me 2 performed even better with an opening weekend of $83.5 million, a domestic gross of $368 million, and a worldwide total of $970.7 million. The Minions in Despicable Me are by far some of the most popular character ever created for a kids film. The Minions popularity should power this film to new height above its predecessors.
The models that I created for this film are lacking a little bit in the international market. I feel that this film will surpass $1 billion due to the first two films popularity overseas. The film has already been released in a few markets and has made $12 million as of June 22nd. The models depiction of the possibilities for the films domestic gross is a better representation of how the film will perform.
I started off with looking at the trends set by the first two films in the franchise. Using what the current projections of an opening of at least $80 million, the film could gross as high as $354.2 million. The worldwide total would gross up to $865 million. This trend is a little stunted since the first film did not perform has well as the second film, but it should at least be a decent analogue for Minions.
I also looked at three different possibilities based on trends of other PG rated films. With these trends of other PG rated movies it could open as low as $57.7 million or as high as $80 million. By the time the film finishes up its domestic run the film could gross as high as $388 million and as low as $280 million. As for the worldwide total the film could be as low as $636 million and as high as $881 million. Of course these totals are all based on the current projections of $80 million, but it will most likely open more than that. I will be doing updated models for Minions in the near future with better data.
The film should have an opening weekend between $94.1 and $56.4 million. The final gross will land between $390 and $234 million. The worldwide total should end up between $925 and $555 million. My prediction for the film is an opening of at least $92 million, a domestic gross of $400 million, and a worldwide total of $1 billion.
Either of these two films could way overachieve the projections that I laid out here. I expect to be doing several updates as their July 10th release date draws near.
Minions is already off to a solid and impresive start overseas. The animated film has already made $52.7 million ahead of its domestic debute.
Minions continues to perform ahead of its domestic release. It's worldwide total is up to $124.2 million.
The early Thursday showings for Minions and The Gallows have gone well for both films. The Gallows made about $900,000 and Minions has added $6 million to the $141 million the film has already brought in overseas. Minions is trending to open over $100 million but it will depend on how far the film drops on Saturday.
The Gallows may not do well over the long run. The film has a 15% rotten rating on Rotten Tomatoes and audience responses have only been slightly better. Luckily for this film, it didn't cost that much to make and will be able to make back the investment. I still think the film will open around $6 million but the $25 million final gross seems less likley.
Minions is performing a little better then what was initialy projected for the film. The little yellow creatures have an estimated opening weekend of $117 million and the worldwide total is up to $259.6 million worldwide. With this opening weekend my models currently suggest an estimated final gross of $364 million domestic gross. This estimated gross is based on a basic second week performance and doesn't reflect if the week and weekend that follows is better than average.
The Gallows estimated opening is at $10.2 million and is a very solid opening for the small horror film.
The weekend estimates have droped slightlly for Minions, from $117 million to $115 million. More totals from overseas have also come in bringing its worldwide total up to $395.7 million. The film is well on its way to out grossing its predecessors and possibly reaching $1 billion worldwide. That success will be dependent on how the film performs this week and how steep of a decline the film will experience next weekend.
As of 7/14 Minions as brought in $145.5 million domesticaly and $426 million worldwide and The Gallows total is up to $12.2 million. Both films are expected to performe well this next weekend. Minions domestic gross is estimated to be around $220 million and based on that performance the projected final domestic gross should be over $400 million. The Gallows gross is projected to be around $17 million, based on basic trends after the first two weeks the film could end up grossing over $30 million but I think this outcome is unlikley. The audience responses to The Gallows have been poor and the film should drop sharply in the coming weeks and will top out around $25 million.
Minions second weekend was very impresive with an estimated $50.2 million. Minions domestic gross will be around $216.7 million and a worldwide gross of $625.8 million.
The Gallows second weekend is an estimated $4 million bringing its domestic gross up to $18.6 million. Overseas totals have also begun to come in and its worldwide total is $22.2 million.
Minions is continuing to dominate the box office during the week posting solid numbers on Tuesday of $8 million. So far, the film has grossed $229.5 million domestically and $667.3 million worldwide and is on its way to possibly hiting $1 billion but it may fall just short.
Minions domestic total is now up to an estimated $261.5 million and the worldwide total is up to $759.3 million. Minions is on its way to become the highest grossing addition to the franchise as well as grossing over $1 billion worldwide.
The Gallows is still performing well with a estimated $21.3 million domestically and has a little bit of a bump from international revenue. The Gallows has a worldwide total of $30.7 million. With an estimated budget of $22 million (counting domestic advertising) the film has paid for it's self but don't look for the begining of endless sequels any time soon.
Minions is nearing a billion dollars worldwide. The domestic gross is up to $302.7 million and a worldwide gross of $912.5 million. It should cross the mark sometime in the next few weeks.
Minions has finally toped $1 billion worldwide currenttly sitting at an estimated 1.01 billion after this weekend. Minions is the fourth film to hit that mark this year making 2015 the year with the most films to cross $1 billion in one year. There are are still two more films to come out this year with the potential to cross, which are Spectre and Star Wars The Force Awakens. The final Hunger Games could also possibly pass the mark but I think it's unlikely since the second installment Catching Fire made $867 million worldwide but last years Mokingjay Part 1 underperformed $754 million.