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The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 Box Office Projections
Article originally published November 4th, 2015 and all updates will be toward the bottom of this article.
One of the biggest and most anticipated films of 2015 is the fourth final installment of The Hunger Games saga, Mockingjay Part 2. The film hits theater on November 20th and as of right now is poised to pick up with the success of previous installments and run off to a solid finish. Mockingjay Part 2 wont be the biggest film of the year and will probably end up ranking somewhere around fourth or fifth for the year under the likes of Jurassic World, Star Wars and The Avengers and bumping elbows with Inside Out, Furious 7 and Spectre for its final position.
Returning in the main cast are Jennifer Lawrence as the main character Katniss Everdeen, Josh Hutcherson and Liam Hemsworth. Also returning in supporting roles are Woody Harrelson, Elizabeth Banks, Jena Malone, Julianne Moore, Stanley Tucci and in his final appearance on screen Philip Seymour Hoffman. Helming his third film in the series is Francis Lawrence who also directed 2007’s I Am Legend and 2005’s Constantine. Penning the screenplay are Peter Craig and Danny Strong based upon the book by Suzanne Collins.
One thing that stands out is that the third installment, which was part one of Mockingjay, made a little less that the first two films. Unfortunately, this decline is being used to form most projections for part 2. As a result, the projections are low when they come down to the domestic total. The thing is, this decline wasn’t due to disinterest in the film but because of a trend that occurs with final installments that have been split in two separate films. For example, both Harry Potter the Deathly Hollows and Twilight Eclipse had similar declines with their part ones but then part two goes on to do much better if not the best of the entire franchise. This may be caused by the fact that people are aware that they are going in to see half a movie and decide to wait to make the trip till the final film to see the real finale. Another reason for this film to have smaller projections is because Star Wars will be out two weeks after this film, which could cut into the final total.
Possible trends for Mockingjay part 2
I based all of my models on the trends established by the previous three Hunger Games. The first three films averaged an opening weekend $144 million, $389.9 million domestic gross and $768.4 million worldwide total. I did go a little conservative with my totals because even though I feel that two weeks are enough distance from Star Wars, there is still a slight chance that it could have a little effect. The models suggest an opening weekend as low as $103 million to as high $141 million. The final domestic gross could also fall as low as $351.6 million and $381.1 million on the high end. Like I said, these numbers are conservative and I expect the film to at least fall north of $380 million domestically.
The opening weekend should fall between $98 and $163.9 million, a domestic gross between $281 and $468.8 million and a final worldwide total between $608.88 million and $1 billion. The worldwide gross is going to be the curious outcome to watch. The second installment grossed $864 million worldwide and there is a possibility that this film may overcome that amount by a lot. The final Harry Potter was the only installment out of eight films that crossed over one billion dollars, while the rest of the films were within the same range as The Hunger Games. There is a possibility Mockingjay Part 2 has the capability to surpass the billion dollar mark though I think the franchise only has the muscle to scratch at the mark but not pass it.
My prediction for The Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 2 is an opening weekend of $140 million, a $400 million domestic gross, and a worldwide total of $800 million.
The opening weekend trends curently have Mockingjay Part 2 opening north of $100 million.
Mockingjay Part 2 disipointed slightly with a below the expected opening of $101 million. This is still a solid opening but nowhere neare the domestic success of the prior three films. The film does look like it is making up for the domestic opening by making $247 million worldwide. Prior installments have droped sharper than what is normal following their initial week or two in theaters and Star Wars could also have some effect.
Mockingjay has had a solid second week making an estimated $51.6 million this weekend. Its domestic totals is now up to $198.3 million and $440.7 million worldwide. I will have long range projections for this film after the numbers have been finalized.
My projections for the final domestic gross for Mockingjay part 2 is a domestic gross anywhere from $260 and $333 million. Though the film did have a solid opening, it was lower than expected and the lowest in the franchise. The film also was not as well received by critics and by audiences, as the first two films which could be a sign of a larger than normal decline. The series has always had a bigger decline than what is normal than most tentpole films, which is due to the die hard fans sowing up for the imediate film release. Currently, the film sits at $204.19 million domestic and $445.59 million worldwide.