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Pixels, Paper Towns, and Southpaw Box Office Projections and Results
Article originally published 7/14/2015. All updates will be toward the bottom of this article.
July 24 will feature the weekend openings of three none sequel films. The three films are the Adam Sandler comedy Pixels, the romance-drama Paper Towns, and the Antoine Fuqua directed boxing drama Southpaw. Two of the films feature well known cast while the other Paper Towns, has a cast of lesser known’s but up and coming actors. This particular weekend is slated to be very solid for the new releases but with the release of Ant-Man and Trainwreck the week before that may give them some additional competition to contend with. Both of those films are going to have a solid second week.
The big tent pole for this weekend will be Pixels with Adam Sandler in the starring role. Pixels is about a group of video game champs from the 80’s that have to help to save the world from aliens that misinterpret images from old video games like Pac-Man and Donkey Kong as a declaration of war from Earth. The film is much in the vain of video game nostalgia that help make Wreck-It Ralph a huge it in 2012. It’s also reminiscent of another Sandler produced film, the cult classic Grandmas Boy.
Starring along side Sandler is Michelle Monaghan, Peter Dinklage, Kevin James, Josh Gad, and Sean Bean. Pixels was directed by Home Alone and Harry Potter director, Chris Columbus. The films screenplay is by Tim Herlihy and Timothy Dowling based on the short film by Patrick Jean. Sandler’s recent films have been a mix of horrible reviews and big flops like 2014’s Blended as well as Box Office success in spite of horrible reviews and negative audience responses like 2011’s Jack and Jill. There are no reviews available for the film yet but currently the film is trending well and has positive responses to the trailer.
Current projections have the film opening around $45 million and a domestic gross around $145 million. In the last few weeks with the ramping up of the advertising campaign the film has been trending upward. Recent successful Sandler films Grown Ups 2 and the much hated Jack and Jill opened with $41.5 and $25 million and domestic grosses of $100.3 and $75.5 million.
I made the models to reflect this upward trend and based on other July opening films giving Pixels a very solid opening of $53, $51, and $48.5 million. The domestic gross came up as $186.9, $180, and $170.9 million. Using trends of other PG-13 films, Pixels could gross upwards of $174.5 million.
Pixels opening weekend should fall between $61.35 and $36.81 million. The domestic gross should be between $204 and $122 million. The films budget is estimated to around $110 million and may not include the advertisement cost for the film. I thought about narrowing the margin for the films opening and domestic gross but I can’t deny the possibility that this film may go the way of other Sandler films like Blended. My prediction for Pixels is an opening of $55 million and a domestic gross of $180 million.
Paper Towns follows a high school teenager that spends a night with the girl next door while she seeks revenge against an ex-boyfriend but after she goes missing he goes on a road trip with his friends to find her. The film stars up and coming actress Cara Delevingne who is also apart of the cast of 2016’s The Suicide Squad. Paper Towns co-stars Nat Wolff, Halston Sage, Cara Buono, Caitlin Carver, Austin Abrams, Griffin Freeman, and Justice Smith. The film is based on the novel by Fault of Our Stars author John Green. The screenplay is by Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber and directed by Jake Schreier. The film looks to be promising with the success of 2014’s film version of Fault of Our Stars, which opened at $48 million, grossed $124.8 million domestically, and made a worldwide total of $299.9 million.
Obviously with the success of Fault of Our Stars the anticipations and expectations are high for Paper Towns. The young adult market has also proved to be very profitable and will be a key to Paper’s success. With just under two weeks till the films is to be released the film is projected to open around $32.4 million and gross around $89.10 million. This work by John Green is not as popular as Fault in Our Stars but Paper Towns but will be able to use that success to give it a little bit of a springboard to leap from.
Using the basic trends based on other films rated PG-13 the film could have an opening weekend as high as $32.4 and as low as $24.7 million. The domestic gross could be as low as $89 million and as high as 116.8 million. The worldwide success of Fault of Our Stars is a good indication for this film and could be as high as $298 million and as low as $227 million. Another alternative for Paper Towns is an opening of $29 million, domestic gross of $98 million, and a worldwide total of $205.9 million.
The film will most likely have an opening week total of $36.8 to $22 million. The domestic gross will fall between $116 and $69.7 million. The worldwide should be between $263 and $157 million. My prediction for Paper Towns is an opening of $30 million, a domestic gross of $80 million, and a worldwide total of $170 million. This film won’t reach the heights of Fault in Our Stars but will be successful in its own way.
From the director of Training Day Antoine Fuqua comes the boxing drama Southpaw. The film follows a prizefighter at the height of his career but his life crumbles around him when his wife dies and his daughter is taken from him. Southpaw stars Jake Gyllenhaal, Rachel McAdams, 50 Cent, and Forest Whitaker. The screenplay is by Sons of Anarchy creator Kurt Sutter. Current reviews of the film are mixed with a 60% rating on Rotten Tomatoes but this is only based on five reviews. Fuqua’s career has been a mixed bag with some box office success like Training Day and Shooter and flops like Tears of the Sun and King Arthur.
Luckily for this film, it has a relatively low budget anywhere from $23 to $30 million which will allow it to become profitable very easily. Projections as of three weeks or more ahead of its release have the film opening around $15.8 million and a domestic a gross of $58 million. With the poor reviews the film may end up grossing a little less than the initial projections. Based on the some trends and if the film does over come its poor reviews it could end up grossing more than anticipated.
Based on the trends of other R rated films, Southpaw could go one to gross as high as $84.9 million but this is unlikely as of right now. The film could also end up opening as low as $10 million and gross as low as $40 million. The film will most likely open between $16.6 and $10 million. The domestic gross will fall between $69.3 and $41.6 million. I’m usurer of how well the film will do overseas but it could have a worldwide total between $145.9 and $87.5 million.
My prediction for Southpaw is an opening weekend of $12 million. The domestic gross will be $40 million. Overall this film looks like it may perform well in its time in theaters.
As mentioned before, these three films will have to contend with the films out the prior weekend. Luckily for Southpaw and Paper Towns their audience are different from Ant-Man or Trainwreck. Pixels on the other hand is trying to pull from the both audiences that will be going to see those two films and may hamper it in its first weekend.
UPDATE 7/22/2015 OPENING WEEKEND FORECAST
Pixels is looking to be a little lower than what was originally projected but is going still open solidly with $40 million. Paper Town is tracking well leading into the weekend with $28 million. Southpaw is looking perform around the projections at $13 million.
All three films are suffering from poor reviews especially Sandlers Pixels. Pixels trends are spiraling downward and may end up coming in second to Ant-Man in it's second week. Pixels has a 20% rotten rating on Rotten Tomatoes with a 59% liked it score out of 42 thousand users. Paper Towns and Southpaw both have relatively good audience scores inspite of their so, so reviews with audience scores in the 70% range. Paper Towns and Southpaw both look to have slightly better long term prospects then Pixels. Paper Towns is expected to open lower that forecasted, while Southpaw looks to be opening a little better.
Pixels and Paper Towns disappoint in opening weekend, while Southpaw gets off to a better start than expected. Pixels opens in second place under Ant-Man with $24 million. Paper Towns first weekend was a far lower than what was expected, with $12.5 million.
Southpaw has opened with a solid $16.5 million and is setting itself up for a decent theatrical run. The film has resonated well with audiences having an even higher audience score on Rotten Tomatoes today than on Friday. So far, Southpaw has an 82% liked it out of 24 thousand users.
Pixels domestic gross is up to $30.5 million and $55.7 million worldwide. The weekend forecast has the films domestic gross around $44 million.
Paper Towns has a domestic gross $16.6 million and $28.7 million worldwide, with current weekend forecast having the films domestic gross around $23 million.
Southpaw's domestic gross is at a solid $20.9 million and worldwide gross at $25.3 million. The film is expected to have a domestic gross of about $30 million after this weekend. Audience responses are still solid with 83% liked it rating out of 22 thousand users on Rotten Tomatoes.
Pixels second weekend gross was $45.7 million with a worldwide total of $102.2 million. The films final domestic gross should be between $73 and $91.4 million, with a worldwide total as high $198 million and as low as $159 million.
Paper Towns second weekend domestic gross was up to $23.8 million and a worldwide total of $50.5 million. The final domestic gross from the film will fall between $38 and $48 million.
Southpaw continues to be the overachiever of the group with $31.6 million domestically and $36 million worldwide. The domestic gross should end up between $50 to $63 million.