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Poltergeist Box Office Predictions and Results

Updated on June 2, 2015

UPDATE 6/2/2015

Poltergeist still will not reach the heights of the original with its gross up to $39.3 million. The films steep decline over its opening weekend indicates that the decline will be just as steep over the next few weeks. Though the film will break even, this will damage the possibilities of Twentieth Century Fox's plans to restart the franchise.

UPDATE 5/26/2015

Crippled with poor reviews, living in the shadow of a classic, and poor word of mouth are all going to greatly reduce the prospects of the Poltergeist remake. The film performed within projections earning an estimated $26.5 million. My models still suggest that the film could earn around $70 million, but depending on just how bad word of mouth effects the film it could earn much less. On the other end of the spectrum the film could out perform if it trudges on in spite of its self, like other horror films have done in the past, though this is unlikely.

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Article Originally Published 5/20/2015

May 22nd will host the second franchise reboot on the summer season with the update of Poltergeist. This film will open alongside the Disney film Tomorrowland over the four day Memorial Day weekend. 20th Century Fox is looking to freshen up this horror classic and maybe find a new audience to embrace it.

Poltergeist is produced by Spider-Man director Sam Rami and instead of staring Craig T. Nelson, Sam Rockwell in this remake of the 1982 horror classic about a hunted house that kidnaps a little girl and the family that tries to rescue her. I’m not a huge fan of horror films, but Poltergeist is one of my favorites and yes this new version does have the creepy clown doll and trees that attacks the older brother. The film is directed by Gil Kenan who also directed the animated movie Monster House and also features the always haunting, (Even when he played Ulysses S. Grant in Lincoln) Jared Harris. This film should do well, but judging by the trailer it does follow the Steven Spielberg co-written original extremely close. With it appearing to follow the original so closely this may spell trouble over the long run, much like the 1998 shot-for-shot remake of Psycho.

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The original spawned two sequels and was nominated for three Oscars for Visual Effects, Sound Effects Editing, and Original Score for Jerry Goldsmith. The opening gross for the original was $6.89 million and went on to make $76.6 million domestically. The film also did well overseas and made $123.6 million worldwide. This new addition should also perform well overseas even if it flops here in states. There are a lot of people who have also noticed in the trailer, how closely the reboot follows the original and could cause negative response.

Trends for Poltergeist
Trends for Poltergeist

Current projections have the film opening around $35 million and grossing about $75 million. These projections were created about month ago and usually are not correct, because they are typically going off of dead reckoning. Best-case scenario that I have for this film is if it does open with $35 million, using trends of other PG-13 rated films it could end up grossing $125 million. On the other end of spectrum, since this film is not expected to make that much in the long run, using those same trends and assuming the film only makes $75 million the opening may only be $20 million.

Poltergeist should open somewhere between $21 and $36 million. Depending on word of mouth the gross should be between $34 and $57 million. The final domestic gross will be between $67 and $85 million. As mentioned before, the film will most likely do well overseas finally earning a total of $163 to $219 million. I’m predicting this film will not do well domestically, opening around $25 million and grossing just $70 million.

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