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Spectre Box Office Projections
This article was originally published 7/23/2015. All updates will be at the bottom.
November 6th, 2015 will have the release of the 24th addition to the James Bond series Spectre. The Bond series has one of the greatest and dedicated fan bases second to only Star Wars. The Bond franchise is the third highest grossing film series of all time but when you take into account inflation it is the highest grossing. The film series has made over $6 billion worldwide. The Bond franchise was first released in the form of the 1953 novel by Ian Fleming titled Casino Royale. The novels where first adapted for the screen by CBS as an anthology television series staring Barry Nelson as James Bond. In 1962, Dr. No became the first big screen adaption with the legendary Bond actor, Sean Connery.
Spectre will pick up where 2012’s Skyfall left off, when a secret from Bond’s past pits him against the global criminal syndicate Spectre. This new addition will feature Daniel Craig in his fourth film as the British spy and there were some rumors that this may be his last but has since signed on to at least one more film. Returning to direct his second film in the series and after his extremely successful Skyfall is Academy Award winner for 1999’s American Beauty director Sam Mendes. As a side note, The Dark Knight Rises director Christopher Nolan was considered to direct till Sam Mendes decided to come back for one more film. The producers considered Nolan as the perfect director for a Bond film, so in the future there may be a Nolan directed film. The film will also star two time Oscar winner Christoph Waltz as the new bad guy Franz Oberhauser and Monica Bellucci as the Bond girl Lucia Sciarra. Reprising their roles from Skyfall is Ralph Fiennes as M, Naomie Harris as Eve Moneypenny, and Ben Whishaw as Q. Also featured in the film is wrestler Dave Bautista, Lea Seydoux, and Sherlock actor Andrew Scott.
The Daniel Craig 007 films have all performed well with the first two performing modestly here in the states and doing most of their business overseas. First off, the Bond films have always done most of their business overseas because most of the franchises appeal is mainly in the international market anyways. 2006’s Casino Royale introduced Craig as James Bond and had an opening weekend of $40.8 million, $167.4 million domestic gross, and a worldwide total of $594.2 million. Quantum of Solace opened with $67.5 million, a domestic gross of $168.3 million, and $586 million worldwide. Skyfall became the highest grossing 007 film in the series with an opening weekend of $88.3 million, $304.3 million domestic, and $1.1 billion worldwide.
Current projections have this film out performing Skyfall by a small margin also the film has about the same anticipation as Skyfall had leading up to it’s release. The projections four months ahead of the films release the films opening weekend would be around $97 million, a domestic gross of $309 million, and a worldwide total of $1.1 billion. I primarily used the trends of the three Daniel Craig films to help model what this film may do. The opening weekend could be anywhere from $100 to $122.9 million. The domestic gross could be from $325.4 to $400 million. The worldwide gross could be anywhere from $1.1 to 1.4 billion.
I also used models based on other films that grossed from $300 to $399 million domestically. This model gives an opening weekend of $104 million and a domestic gross of $386.7 million. The worldwide gross could be as low as $989 million. Spectre should have and opening weekend between $77.5 and $129.2 million. The domestic gross should fall between $301.2 and $430.6 million. The worldwide gross could be from $949.5 to $1.3 billion.
With all of these models, I based them on an opening weekend around $100 million and on the success of Skyfall, so some of these amounts may be a little inflated. Skyfall may have been an anomaly in franchise and not setting a new standard. Luckily for Spectre it has a nice one-month cushion till the release of what may be the highest grossing film of all time, Star Wars The Force Awakens. With this cushion, the film will have a large chunk of its business in the bank and will not be affected by that release. My early prediction for the film is an opening around $100 million, a domestic gross of $400 million, and a worldwide total of $1.2 billion. These numbers will change leading up to the films release but I will say that the domestic gross is probably the max that the film could do. The opening weekend will most likely be higher with a slight chance of having the highest opening weekend ever in November, which currently belongs to The Hunger Games: Catching Fire at $158 million in 2013.
If the trailer is any indication of the pending success the film; it should at least perform as well as the first two of the movies featuring Daniel Craig. Time will tell how this film will perform; again there is still four months till the Spectre is released. This film did suffer from some budget issues by going way over. The film ended up costing over an estimated $300 million. This film may also become the one of the five or six films that will gross over a billion, which is the most to ever hit that mark in one year.
Current trends have Spectre opening around $90 million and eventually grossing from $250 to $300 million in the domestic market. The film still has the potential and a high probablility of grossing over $1 billion worldwide. Spectre is about to start it's marketing bliz and I expect the film projections to go up. I feel that my orginal projections are still viable and I will stick with them. Spectre will most likley open with a solid $100 million, perhaps more, gross up to $400 million domestically and earn $1.2 billion worldwide.
The current weekend projections have Spectre opening from $80 to $95 million in its first weekend.
Current tracking has Spectre opening around an estimated $72 million this weekend. This is a solid opening but a little under what was expected for the film, mainly due to lackluster reviews and audience response to the film.
In its second weekend Spectre's domestic gross is up to an estimated $130.7 million, while internationally the film is performing just as well as Skyfall is up to $543.8 million. After the final numbers are out I will have projections of where the film will end up.
After a solid second weekend that saw the films domestic gross rise up to $128.98 million, the film should go on to a solid finish. My projections have the films final domestic gross ending up between $273 and $328 million. The film is also well on its way to grossing over $1 billion worldwide.
Spectre has continued to perform well and since its second week has not been delining from week to week, too badly. Since its November 6th release, the film has brought in $176 million domestically and $749 million worldwide.