Spy, Insidious: Chapter 3, and Entourage Box Office Predictions and Results
ARTICLE ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 5/27/2015
The weekend of June 5th will feature three of the big releases of the summer including, the action/comedy Spy, the horror sequel Insidious: Chapter 3, and on June 3rd the highly anticipated comedy/drama Entourage. All three films will be coming off of a relatively weak weekend that features Aloha, which is projected to be a flop and San Andreas which is going to do just ok, but it’s no Age of Ultron. All three films will also, have to contend with the release of Jurassic World the following week, which has been trending upwards ever since it’s first projections a month ago. Entourage and Insidious have established fan bases that could allow them to do well over the long haul. Spy does not have the advantage of a fan base, but does feature an all-star cast and has high expectations.
Out of the three films, Spy currently has the most going for it and will most likely debut at the number one spot. Insidious: Chapter 3 should come in second after the success of the second installment. Entourage will come in third, but may be capable of being a big surprise. Theater attendance is up this year, which could be sign that all three films could be capable of being blockbusters.
One of the most anticipated films to come out this summer is the long awaited big screen dose of Entourage. A continuation of the HBO series of the same name, the producers and studio are looking to create the same magic that they had with the Sex and the City movies. The entire cast is back to reprise their roles, which include Adrian Grenier, Jeremy Piven, Kevin Connolly, Jerry Ferrara and Kevin Dillon. Like the show the film will be full of the usual great names in various supporting roles and cameos, like Billy Bob Thornton, Mark Wahlberg (also serving as producer as he did with the series), Ronda Rousey, Dan Patrick and Richard Schiff.
The film follows the crew as Vincent (Grenier) not only stars in but also gets to direct his first film which is bankrolled by Ari (Piven). As the $100 million film goes way over budget, Ari begins to run into the issues with his financiers. Doug Ellin who also wrote the screenplay directs the film and he was a producer for the series and directs a few episodes too. The Entourage fan base has been waiting since 2011 for this film and should turn out to make this film a big success in its premier on Wednesday, June 3rd. The film also has a two-day head start to the weekend.
Out June 5th is Insidious: Chapter 3 and as its title suggests it is the third addition to the Insidious franchise. Leigh Whannell, writer of the all three Insidious’ as well as the first three Saw films will be taking the directorial reigns for the first time with Chapter 3. This film will be a prequel to the first Insidious film that grossed nearly $54 million in 2010 and featured Patrick Wilson and Rose Byrne. Wilson and Byrne will not be reprising their roles as they did in the very successful sequel, but does feature the underrated Dermot Mulroney as the father of the haunted child played by Stefanie Scott. The last installment made $83.5 million in the United States box office and I wouldn’t be surprised if this one surpasses it. Usually these horror franchises don’t start getting stale till around number four.
Making this particular weekend unusually busy is the action/comedy Spy. Spy stars the Melissa McCarthy, Jason Statham, Jude Law, Rose Byrne, Morena Buccarin and Allison Janney. McCarthy, plays a low level CIA employee who is thrust into the job of full fledge spy when the identities of all other spies has been discovered by the villain, played by Byrne. The film looks to be exceptionally funny, but does have a lot of competition, more so in Entourage than Insidious. Both films are R rated comedies with Entourage having an established audience and Spy boasting big star power mainly in the incredibly funny Melissa McCarthy.
Spy will probably the first real big non-sequel hit of the year. As of two weeks prior to its release the movie is projected to open with $39 million and gross $145 million. In my opinion the projections are well under what it’s capable to do and most of the projections this year have been way off. Films that feature strong female leads are hot right now and this is one of those films, with Melissa McCarthy whom has demonstrated that she’s more than capable of holding her own in the lead. You are going to be seeing more of these types of films in the future, because female driven films do extremely well and there is a lot pressure for them. The best example from this year is the extremely amazing and surprise success of Pitch Perfect 2.
Like Pitch Perfect 2, Spy film will way out perform its projections. Spy also is raking in the reviews and thus far appears to be the best-reviewed movie of the year, with a 100% fresh rating on Rottentomatoes.com. The great reviews that the film has received can spell a future with great word of mouth. The only hindrance this film faces is its R rating, which can cap how much the film can make, but I don’t think it will in this case. The R rating appears to be a great fit for this film and its audience. If Spy does open at $39 million according to the trends of other R rated films it could gross as high as $208 million.
This year the international box office is way up, sitting just over 60% of a films total gross. Just ten years ago the international box office representative of 50% of a films total gross of the top 100 films of each year. I mention the international box office, because this film has major international success written all over it. This film boosts and international cast, international location, and R rated films in the US perform extremely well overseas. The average worldwide gross that my models suggest a gross of $329 million.
Spy should open between $31 and $52 million and gross domestically $110 to $184 million. The worldwide total should fall between $247 and $413 million. My prediction for this film is an opening well above the projections of $50 million, a domestic gross of at least $160 million, and a worldwide total of $300 million.
Insidious: Chapter 3
The first two Insidious’ where extremely successful and I cannot out rule the possibility that this chapter will duplicate the huge success of the second installment that grossed $83.5 million in 2013. The first installment was released in April while the second was released in September, so this one is in new territory being released in the very competitive summer season. Also, there are no other big horror titles within range of affecting this films run in theaters. Current projections have this opening at around $25 million and grossing about $55 million domestically. Most likely this film won’t reach the heights of Chapter 2, but as I stated before I cannot rule it out.
Chapter 3 should behave like its predecessor and like most sequels by having a solid opening and then a steeper than normal decline in the weeks that follow. Following the trends set by Insidious: Chapter 2 and if it open at the projected $25 million the film would gross about $51 million domestically. I feel that this franchise has a little bit more life in it. Some of my other models suggest that the film could end up grossing over $80 million.
The movie will most likely open from $18 to $30 million and gross from $51 to $85 million in the domestic market. The previous installment also performed well internationally and so should this one making over $100 million. My prediction is that the film will open at $30 million and gross $60 million domestically.
Prospects do not seam good for the Entourage feature film current projections are very low. The die-hard fans should come to see the film, but anticipation outside of its dedicated fan base may be slim. The film does face some considerable competition in Spy, which the studio hopes that the two-day head start on the week will counter act its effects. The film may find success in the long haul, but currently there are no reviews available to give me an idea what word of mouth will hold for the film. The film will most likely open somewhere around $10 to $20 million and gross over $43 million. I’m currently refraining from doing a full-fledged prediction on this one till my first update, because I’m very skeptical of current projections. Also, I feel that possibly the anticipation for this film has been greatly underestimated.
Entourage is still trending to open low, which may explain why the studio has decided to also release the film on HBO GO on the same day. As of today projections on Boxoffice.com have the film opening at $11 million with a final domestic gross of $35 million. Using trends from typical R rated films Entourage could open as low as $6.5 million and gross as high as $53.5 million. The good news that I get from the R rated models, is that the international haul could land somewhere between $72.9 and 111.4 million, in spite of the disappointing domestic haul. I also looked at the models for typical June releases which gives an opening as low as $9.9 million and a domestic gross around $35 million.
The opening weekend should be around $6 and $12 million. Entourage’s final domestic haul will be around $26 and $45 million. The worldwide totals will be between $56 and $94 million. Overall, the prospects do not look good for Entourage but the film could performer better internationally. With two days to go before the film is released on June 3rd, there are now reviews available indicating that perhaps the studio is not confident on how well the film will fair with reviewers and are relying on fan enthusiasm to power the film. If early audiences do enjoy the film good word of mouth could give the film a little life, but at this point I feel it’s unlikely. I also doubt a good haul in the international markets.
My prediction for Entourage is an opening gross of $9 million and a domestic gross of $30 million.
Some reviews have finally surfaced for Entourage and they're very bad. I read about four reviews and they are all by followers of the show, which is an even worse indication. The studio is pulling out all of the last ditch efforts to lure people into the theaters including my favorite one or two word reviews. I should say how some of those types of reviews work, they will take reviews where a reviewer says, "The movie was a stupendous and amazing piece of sh#t, that is an insult to its viewers." The review that is shown in TV trailers is that the movie is, "Stupendous and amazing." The TV trailers also had quotes from social media from people who may be excited about the movie but have not seen it yet.
Spy is continuing to trend upward on its way toward a big opening for the R rated comedy. Current projections have jumped up from $39 million to $43 million. I think the film will end up trending closer toward $50 million by this Friday debut.
Entourage has opened to an impressive estimated $5 million one day haul on Wednesday. Apparently the fans are coming out to see the film but the weekend is just starting. With Spy stealing some of Entourage's thunder and the long term gross is not very clear.
Spy opened lower then expected but did open solidly at an estimated $30 million. With great word of mouth coming from great reviews and favorable audience scores on Rotten Tomatoes the movie should do well over the long haul bringing in over $160 million domestically.
Insidious: Chapter 3 also opened solidly to an estimated opening weekend of $23 million. My models suggest that the film could go on to gross over $70 million domestically. The film did receive decent reviews and the power of the franchise should carry it to a decent pay off.
Entourage opened with an estimated weekend haul of $10.45 million and including its gross from it's early opening from 6/3 it brought in $17 million total. The fan-base has did respond favorably to the film but the film may only break even in the end.
Spy had a solid second weekend and is doing well internationally as well. It's domestic gross is up to an estimated $56.9 million. Spy's worldwide total is up to $137 million.
Insidious: Chapter 3 was also solid, but not performing up to the previous chapters performance. In it's second weekend the film has grossed an estimated $37.3 million.
Entourage is trudging on so far grossing $25.8 million domesticaly and has a worldwide total of $31.8 million.