Straight Outta Compton and The Man from U.N.C.L.E. Box Office Projections
In wide release on August 14th is the highly anticipated film Straight Outta Compton and The Man from U.N.C.L.E. The month of August typically signals the slow of the summer box office before picking up again in September but there is usually at least one film that is a surprising huge success, like Guardians of the Galaxy. So far, the month has seen a major flop in the form of the Fantastic Four reboot and no major domestic successes in the months first weekend. That big box office hit of August may be Straight Outta Compton, which may also be an Oscar contender in January. The Man from U.N.C.L.E. has potential on paper but anticipation is greatly lacking.
Straight Outta Compton
Straight Outta Compton follows the rap group NWA during their rise in the late 80’s, which revolutionized Hip Hop. The film stars O’Shea Jackson Jr. playing the role of his father Ice Cube, Corey Hawkins as Dr. Dre, Jason Mitchell as Eazy-E, Neil Brown Jr. as Dj Yella, Aldis Hodge as Mc Ren, Marlon Yates Jr. as The D.O.C., and R. Marcos Taylor as Suge Knight. Paul Giamatti co-stars as NWA’s legendary manager Jerry Heller. F. Gary Gray, who also directed The Negotiator, The Italian Job, and Friday, directed the film. Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff wrote the screenplay with story credit going to S. Leigh Savidge, Alan Wenkus, and Andrea Berloff. Ice Cube and Dr. Dre both serve as two of the films producers.
Over past several months, anticipation has risen dramatically for the film and it’s expected to be a huge success. The projections I have seen have the film opening at $36 million with a domestic gross around $92 million. But most of those projections are old and Boxoffice.com was showing an opening of $43 million and a domestic gross of $117 million. The most recent numbers were as of last week and it is possible that those numbers may be just slightly over inflated do to the dramatic rise of anticipation. Based on that possibility, I generated my models cautiously, using $36 million as a baseline. Also, this film should perform like other R rated dramas like it, where they open solidly with lower numbers but over time perform extremely well. The long term also looks good for the film based on the available reviews, which are amazing.
Using trends generated from other R rated films, Straight Outta Compton could end up grossing as high as $192.7 million. I feel this number is also over inflated but is a slight possibility if word of mouth is extremely favorable and if the anticipation was under estimated. Other more realistic possibilities are a domestic gross as low as $107 million and as high as $135 million. Also, based on these models the film could still open lower but solid and perform well, with an opening weekend as low as $20 million. Based on trends from other movies that have also opened in August, the film could also gross as high as $123 million.
Overall, the models are favorable for Straight Outta Compton as well as industry expectations. The film should have an opening weekend between $24 and $40 million. The domestic gross will fall between $91.4 and $152 million.
For my predictions, I’m leaning toward the high end of the spectrum along with favorable word of mouth after the movies release. I predict an opening weekend of $40 million and a domestic gross of $120 million. Straight Outta Compton will be a film to observe this weekend.
Straight Outta Compton
The Man from U.N.C.L.E.
The Man from U.N.C.L.E. is adapted from the 1964 series of the same name, created by Sam Rolfe. The film follows CIA agent Napoleon Solo and KGB agent Illya Kuryakin who join forces in the 1960’s, to prevent nuclear weapons from falling in the wrong hands. It stars Man of Steal star Henry Cavil as Solo and The Social Network’s Armie Hammer as Illya. Co-starring is Alicia Vakander, Elizabeth Debicki, Jared Harris, and Hugh Grant. Guy Ritchie who also contributed to the screenplay directs the film. Co-writing the screenplay is Lionel Wigram with story by Jeff Kleeman and David C. Wilson.
Anticipation is low for this movie, mainly because a lot of people probably don’t know much about the original show. Reviews for the film are mixed with a 64% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Current projections have the film opening around $23 million and grossing as high as $73 million but some of the projections I looked at are were very old and the most recent ones are far lower. I based my models on the current numbers with an opening under $20 million. The domestic gross could be as high as $59 million or as low as $46 million.
The Man from U.N.C.L.E. should have an opening weekend between $11.7 and $19.6 million. The domestic gross should fall between $65 and $39 million. The worldwide total will be between $102 and $170 million. The film does seem to have more appeal overseas but with the mixed reviews I am unsure if the film will click better with audiences. I predict an opening weekend of $15 million, a $48 million domestic gross, and a worldwide total of $100 million.
The Man from U.N.C.L.E.
Straight Outta Compton will definitely be in the number one spot with The Man from U.N.C.L.E possibly competing with Mission: Impossible for the second spot.
Straight Outta Compton is slated to open between $50 and $56 million. I'll still think that this amount may be over inflated but it is possible with the high anticipation for the film. The Man from U.N.C.L.E. is trackinng to open with $12 to $16 million.
Straight Outta Compton is on it's way to becoming the sixth highest R rated opening of all-time just above 2001's Hannibal and below 2007's 300. The current estimates have the film opening around $59 million and beating out the projections going into the weekend.
The Man from U.N.C.L.E. is performing a little worse than expected with and estimated $12.9 million opening weekend. The good news is that audiences are responding to the film far better than the mixed reviews with a 81%. Good word of mouth will help the film in the long run but not enough domestically. The film could possibly find some success overseas.
The offical weekend total for Straight Outta Compton was $60.2 million. The Man from U.N.C.L.E. finished the weekend with $13.3 million.
UPDATE 8/20/2015 Long-range Discussion for Straight Outta Compton
Most expectations for Straight Outta Compton, had it being front loaded meaning it would be strong out of the gate then trail off sharply. The front loading makes sense with this film since most of the films success coming from the fans of NWA, but one thing that hasn't be expected is just how good the movie is. It's had raving reviews, has had extreamly positive audience responses, and opened far stronger than expected. With those three factors this film may not end up being as front loaded as originaly thought or at all, because those three things mean more people will be going to theaters in the near future. This film could also have more staying power over the next several months and may still be in theaters six months from now, which most films wrap up their runs after three.
So far this week, Straight Outta Compton has been put down extreamly decent number on Monday and Tuesday and current forcast have the films domestic gross being over $100 million after this weekend. Based on its first weekend and assuming the film will not be front loaded, the domestic gross could end up be around $155 million. If next weekend goes as well as forcasted the final domestic gross could be scratching at $200 million. Again these two amount are asumming that the film will not be front loaded at all and will behave like a normal R rated drama.
Straight Outta Compton is in the number one spot again with a estimated weekend of $27.8 million that will bring its domestic gross up around $112 million. The Man form U.N.C.L.E. is at an estimated $7.6 million this weekend and a gross around $26.8 million.
Straight Outta Compton had a solid second weekend at $26.3 million and has a domestic gross sitting at $111 million. The films final gross should be around $187 million but there is a good posibility that it may end up over $200 million.
The Man from U.N.C.L.E. did $7.3 million this past weekend and has a domestic gross $26.5 million. This films second weekend decline is slightly better then average, which is due to decent word of mouth. The final gross should fall between $34 and $45 million.
Straight Outta Compton has spent a third weekend at the top spot and has made $134.1 million domestically and $140.9 million worldwide.
Compton is still being a power house at the box office with a chance at being in the number one spot for the fourth weekend in a row but the newer release War Room in its second week may dethrone it. After this weekend Compton's domestic gross should be around $147.9 million and $154.7 million world wide.
After five weeks, Straight Outta Compton is still performing weel but is now starting to drop sharply. The new estimated domestic haul is up to $155.7 million and has earned a total of $180.7 million worldwide.
The Man from U.N.C.L.E. has made an estimated $43.1 domestically but is performing well overseas and has a worldwide total of $94.7 million.