- Entertainment and Media»
- Movies & Movie Reviews
Terminator Genisys and Magic Mike XXL Box Office Projections
Article originally published 6/22/2015. All updates will be at the bottom of this article.
The July 1st weekend brings two sequels to succesfull R rated originals, one with rather great prospects while the other is not so great. Those two films are Terminator Genisys and Magic Mike XXL and both are highly anticipated films for this summer season. Magic Mike XXL is the sequel to the 2012 surprise hit Magic Mike while Terminator Genisys is the fifth installment to the Terminator franchise which first hit theaters in 1984. Magic Mike XXL is a fresh title with a very large and excited fan base, much like Pitch Perfect. The new Terminator also has a large fan base but the franchise has become stale with the most recent addition Terminator Salvation flopping and the canceled television series Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles.
Terminator Genisys is practically a reboot of the franchise and also brings back the original Terminator machine played by Arnold Schwarzenegger. This is Schwarzenegger’s first actual appearance in the franchise since 2003’s Rise of the Machines, while in 2009’s Salvation he was depicted via CGI. This new film begins where the first film began with John Conner sending back Kyle Reese to 1984 to protect Sarah Connor but finds himself in a different timeline where the Terminator is already there and Sarah is already preparing for the coming machine take over. Also starring in the film is Emilia Clarke as Sarah Connor, Jai Courtney as Kyle Reese, and Jason Clarke as John Connor. The film also features recent Oscar winner J.K. Simmons and Matt Smith of Doctor Who fame. As was the case with all of the new additions to the franchise since Terminator 2 this Terminator is missing the influence of writer and director James Cameron. Alan Taylor, director of Thor: The Dark World and six episodes of HBO’s Games of Thrones helms Genisys. Laeta Kalogridis and Patrick Lussier wrote the screenplay.
Magic Mike XXL has Channing Tatum reprising his role as Magic Mike and as producer in this sequel to the 2012 original. This new addition has Mike going to Myrtle Beach along with the remaining Kings of Tampa to perform once more. The film also features Elizabeth Banks, Matt Bomer, Amber Heard, Joe Manganiello, Donald Glover, and Jada Pinkett Smith. Steven Soderbergh directed the original film but he only returned to this film as executive producer. In the directors chair is Gregory Jacobs a long time assistant director to Soderbergh. Returning to write the screenplay is Reid Carolin whom is also a producer. The original film was loosely based on Tatum’s experiences as a striper.
As mentioned before, recent additions to the Terminator franchise have not faired well. 2009’s Terminator Salvation opened solidly with $51.9 million but proceeded to stumble at the box office to only grossing $125.3 million domestically. Current projections have the film opening at $38.5 million, grossing $116 million, and grossing $287 million worldwide.
I primarily used models based on trends from other films that have opened in the month of July. The three July models suggest opening weekends of $40, $35.7, and $32.9 million. The domestic grosses could be $140.9, $125.8, and $116 million. I also utilized the trends of other film rated PG13. The PG13 model suggests an opening of $38 million and a domestic gross of $100 million. The low prospects in the domestic market means the film will need to make up it’s losses in the international market. The models suggest that the film could have a worldwide total as high as $355 million and as low as $255 million.
Terminator Genisys should have an opening weekend between $42 and $25 million. The domestic gross should be between $138 and $82 million. The worldwide total will fall between $332 and $199 million. My prediction for this film is an opening weekend of $25 million, a domestic gross of $95 million, and a worldwide total of $160 million.
Magic Mike XXL
The first film was a surprise hit back in 2012. The $7 million film opened at $39 million, eventually grossed $113.7 million, and made $160.7 million worldwide. As mentioned before the film has an established fan base but the anticipation has been lackluster on social media and only about 14 thousand users on Rotten Tomato’s have indicated weather they would see the film or not. This is misleading and Pitch Perfect 2 also had the same appearance of lackluster anticipation prior to its release and that film was a huge success. I expect this film to at least match the success of the original but I would be surprised if it didn’t surpass it. Current projections have the film opening around $40.5 million, grossing $104.5 million, and gross worldwide $258.6 million.
Using the trends of the original film and if the film opens with $40 million the films could gross up to $116.2 million. Usually with originals the films tend to perform better after the release due to favorable word of mouth while sequels tend to open higher due to fan anticipation for the film. With this also being an R rated film these types of films tend to open solidly and do extremely well over the long haul.
I have three different models based on trends of R rated film. The highest suggest an opening weekend of $40 million, a solid opening would be $30 million, but could open as low as $19.5 million. Over the films time in theaters it could gross as high as $214 million, $160.6 million, and as low as $104.5 million. In it’s international release the film could have a worldwide total as high as $445 million and as low as $164.3 million. This film should open in the number one spot on its opening weekend being the stronger of the two major releases.
Magic Mike XXL should open solidly anywhere between $43.2 and $25 million. The domestic gross will be between $161 and $96 million. The worldwide gross should be between $326 and $195 million. My prediction right now for this film is an opening weekend at $38 million, a domestic gross at $128 million, with a worldwide total of $215 million.
Magic Mike XXL
The releases for both of these films are still a little more than a week away. Both films are also going to get a two-day head start on the 4th of July weekend. Favorable word of mouth leading up to the weekend will help both films over the weekend and could cause the films to make more over the weekend. Look for a few more updates leading up to the July 1st openings for the films and I’m expecting Magic Mike XXL’s opening weekend being higher that what I originally expected.
Reveiws are starting to come in for Terminator Genisys and they are down right awful. The reviews are so awful they make the reviews for a Michael Bay movie look like a review for a future Oscar nominee for Best Picture. These reviews may be forshadowing the poor word of mouth the film can suffer from following its opening weekend. The only positive news that I've seen so far for the movie are the positive comment by James Cameron. Though these comments may be Cameron doing his part in promoting the film since he stands to gain a little money in the form of residuals to tied him over till the release of Avatar 2 and 3.
Someone recently pointed out that my predicted worldwide gross is very low and it is but I will stand by it even though it may eventually be painfully wrong. As for my predictions for the opening weekend and domestic gross, that's what I really think the film will do.
Terminator Genisys is continuing to trend low for its opening weekend at $30 million with a disappointing domestic gross of $100 million. Magic Mike XXL is continuing to trend toward a solid opening of $29 million. Both films have an advantage of a two day jump on the weekend and depending on what they do on Wednesday will give a better idea of what they will do over the weekend.
Magic Mike opens solidly while Terminator is begining to disappoint in their first day in wide release. Magic Mike has brought in over $9 million on its first day and with decent to good audience response word of mouth appears to be in the films favor.
Terminator Genisys made just $8.9 million and appears to be pulling a Lone Ranger on its studio Paramount. Audience response ranges from okay to a shoulder shrug with basic reviews stating that the films has great special effects, action, and naolstalgic but poor story telling. These responses indicate a mixed word of mouth that may give the film an extreamly small boost but leave people uninterested in going to the theater. The $155 million productions budget will be easy to overcome but after domestic and international advertising the film cost over $300 million and this may be a little hard for the film to makeup.
Coming extreamly close to my prediction of $25 million is Terminator Genisys bringing in an estimated $26.5 million over the forth of July weekend. With its two day headstart the film has brought in an estimated $41.9 million domesticaly and a disappointing $50.2 million worldwide. Perhaps my low prediction of $160 million worldwide wasn't so extream.
Magic Mike XXL started off solidly in its first two day prior to the weekend but is first weekend is proving to be a little dissapointing at an estimated $15.1 million. So far the films gross is at $30.1 million and international numbers are not available.
Both films will come out of the weekend at third and fourth place under Jurassic World and Inside Out.
Magic Mike XXL estimated opening weekend was lowered to $12 million with a gross of $27 million since it's Wednesday release. International totals where also finaly available and the films worldwide total is $33.2 million.
Revised overseas totals for Terminator became available and the worldwide total is up to $129.6 million.
Terminator Genisys is continuing to struggle along. The weekend estimates have its gross around $68.2 million domestic and $153.7 million worldwide total by the end of the weekend. As of right now the final domestic gross will end up any where between $83.9 and $120 million.
Initialy disapointing Magic Mike has performed well in its second week. The film cost just $45 million after this weekend the estimates have the films domestic gross at $48.2 million. The film will not out gross its predecessor but may gross close but not over $100 million.
Terminator Genisys as already brought in $228.6 million worldwide a far cry from where the studio needs it to be, this is mainly due to the films lackluster performance on the domestic side. Genisys' domestic gross is an anemic $72 million and is still dropping sharply every week. The international total for this film is probably going to begin slowing in the next few weeks and it has performed done well overseas but it really needed the domestic side to make it a success.
Magic Mike XXL worldwide success is greatly lacking compared to its predessesor just sitting at $57.5 million with most of its total composed of its $51 million domestic gross.
After this past weekend the estimates have Terminator Genisys domestic gross up to $80.6 million and worldwide total up to $277.4 million. Magic Mike is up to $58.6 million domestic and it's worldwide total has jumped up to $89.6 million after opening in additional markets overseas.