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Tomorrowland Box Office Predictions and Performance

Updated on June 2, 2015

UPDATE 6/2/2015

Tomorrowland 's second weekend has gone as well as it's first weekend with its domestic gross up to $63.1 million. The film is struggling to find its audience but some (not many) that have seen the film have been slightly more receptive to it. The film is doing well overseas and has made $133.6 million thus far. With international receipts the film should make back its budget of $250 million but will become a disappointment with a little bit of profit.

UPDATE 5/26/2015

Tomorrowland opened within expectations with $41.7 million. The reviews for the film have been poor with a Rottentomatos.com rating of 49%, but the film has been getting okay reviews from audiences with 61% saying they liked the film on that same website. In time the film may perform well, but unfortunately the era when a film can sit in the theaters for months and find its audience and make a lot of money, is long gone. For the long haul, Tomorrowland’s second week will tell the tale of how much this film will make and could it perform well. Right now, my projections have the film grossing $132 million, well under my prediction of $170 million.

Disney's Tomorrowland
Disney's Tomorrowland | Source
Official Poster for Tomorrowland
Official Poster for Tomorrowland | Source

ARTICLE ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 5/13/2015

From director Brad Bird the man who brought you The Incredibles, Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol, numerous Simpsons episodes, and wrote the screenplay for Batteries Not Included* comes his newest offering, Tomorrowland. In theaters on May 22nd, Bird will be bringing his unique style to this visionary movie making a very entertaining kids film in the process. By the way he turned down Star Wars: The Force Awakens in order to make this film. Disney is looking to make this be apart of their banner year, which also includes Star Wars and Avengers: Age of Ultron. Unfortunately for Tomorrowland, early projections have this film falling a little flat in the domestic box office, but that may not be the case.

This film stars George Clooney, Britt Robertson, Hugh Laurie, and Raffey Cassidy and features Judy Greer, Tim McGraw, and Kathryn Hahn. The story follows Casey played by Robertson, who finds a magic medallion that can transport her to a magical world. She later finds out from a former boy genius played by Clooney, that it is their destiny to save the magical place of Tomorrowland. Like Pirates of the Caribbean, this film is also based on a Disney attraction. Brad Bird and Damon Lindelof scripted Tomorrowland with additional story by Jeff Jenson.

Britt Robertson in Tomorrowland
Britt Robertson in Tomorrowland | Source

As mentioned, early projections do have this film falling a little flat, but I think there is a good reason for that. The reason why these early projections are flat is possibly because when these projections initially came out there was some thought that Age of Ultron would have the same effect as The Avengers did in 2012. This time around Age of Ultron had two weeks by its self at the box office and it’s not as big as it’s predecessor, so it’s effect should not be as pronounced. Tomorrowland has a three week buffer between its self and Age of Ultron and the new releases the weekend before it Mad Max: Fury Road and Pitch Perfect 2 are going to perform very well in the shadow of the behemoth. When those two films do open well it will show that a film can still perform at the box office when that big of movie is out.

The film has a budget somewhere around $190 million, so Disney has bet a lot on its success which is well out of the norm for a film that is not a sequel. A good thing to take note is that there is quite a bit of interest in the film. For example, on Rottentomatos.com Pitch Perfect 2 has 36 thousand users interested in it with 97% wanting to see it while Tomorrowland has over 54 thousands users and 99% interested. Also, I have a feeling that the reviews are going to be great which can reflect what word of mouth will do for it over the long haul. Tomorrowland also has an advantage of being released on the four day Memorial Day weekend. With all of that said, my prediction that is going to be at the end of this article is going to reflect a higher that projected opening and gross but, my numbers are still cautiously soft and I’ll have a better idea of what it will do the week of its release.

George Clooney
George Clooney | Source

The projections for Tomorrowland have it opening around $45 million, which is close to right for a none sequel opening. The real softness with the numbers has more to do with the final domestic gross. Other first installments have behaved in similar fashion like Iron Man or Thor. Using the trends of other PG rated movies, it could domestically earn upwards of $218 million in the end. This would be a decent and believable outcome for this film, but as of right now I don’t think the film will make that much domestically. On the low end the film could well under perform grossing just $112 million. No matter the out come in the domestic box office, this film should do extremely well internationally, making the large budget worth it.

Possible Trends for Tomorrowland
Possible Trends for Tomorrowland

Tomorrowland should open somewhere between $40 and $53 million and remember it’s a four day weekend. By the end of the second weekend the film should gross between $63 and $85 million. The final domestic gross will end up being between $139 and $185 million. The international haul will be between $333 and $440 million. My current prediction for Tomorrowland is it will open around $52 million and gross $170 million domestically. I’m still soft on my predictions and I should know more in the coming week in order to update them.

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