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Vacation and Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation Box Office Projections and Results
Article originally published on 7/8/2015. All update will be at the bottom of this article.
July 29th and July 31st, will feature the theatrical release of two highly anticipated sequels, Vacation and Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation. Vacation will be on the earlier date to give it’s self two-day start a head of Rogue Nation as well as place it’s self exactly 32 years after the release on the original. Both films have established fan bases but each are not without their potential problems that may hamper their early earnings.
This newest addition to the Vacation franchise is in an attempt to reboot the series and the first since 1997’s Vegas Vacation to get wide theatrical release. The most recent addition was the 2003 TV movie Christmas Vacation 2 which followed cousin Eddie. In this reboot Ed Helms stars as Rusty Griswold and he is the fifth person to portray the character in the running gag of recasting the Griswold children. Vacation has Rusty taking his family on the inevitably disastrous trip from Chicago to fictional theme park Wally World. Co-starring is Christina Applegate as Rusty’s wife Debbie, and Steele Stebbins and Skyler Gisondo as their sons. Reprising their roles from the original series is Chevy Chase and Beverly D’Angelo. In other roles are Leslie Mann as Audrey Griswold, Chris Hemsworth, Michael Pena, and Charlie Day. Cousin Eddie will not be appearing in this new film due to a number controversies surrounding Randy Quaid but it appears that Chris Hemsworth will be occupying the Cousin Eddie antics in his role as Audrey’s husband.
The original was directed by the late Harold Ramis and written by the also late John Hughes. The new Vacation was written and directed by the duo that wrote Horrible Bosses Jonathan M. Goldstein and John Francis Daley. Responses have been positive to the release of the R rated trailer a few month ago but with the franchise becoming stagnant and unsuccessful since the release of 1989’s Christmas Vacation. Vegas Vacation was a marginal success but disappointing only earning $37.4 million worldwide compared with the $71.3 million domestic haul of Christmas Vacation.
Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation is the fifth edition since Brian De Palma’s 1996 box office smash Mission: Impossible. Rogue Nation has Ethan Hunt and company taking on the Syndicate, which is bent of destroying the IMF. Returning in supporting roles are Jeremy Renner, Simon Pegg, and Ving Rhames. Also appearing is Rebecca Ferguson, Alec Baldwin, and Sean Harris. Writing and directing is Christopher McQuarrie who has directed Tom Cruise before in Jack Reacher and has also collaborated as writer and producer with Cruise on Valkyrie and Edge of Tomorrow
The most recent three films have been imbedded in turmoil always stemming from Tom Cruise’s fall from being Hollywood’s most bankable actor and his Scientology beliefs. New installments have been able to buck this turmoil mostly due to Cruise’s amazing death defying stunts including repelling down the tallest skyscraper in the world and the popularity of the franchise. Also it helps to keep on putting out a decent product, which will always make it possible to overcome any issue. This film will most likely buck the trend as well with the intense need to see what happens with that sequence where Tom Cruise is hanging off of a plane as it takes off.
MIssion: Impossible - Rogue Nation
The Mission: Impossible franchise has been very profitable for its studio Paramount and should continue to do so and Paramount is one of the studios that needs to make up ground on their competitors Universal and Disney this year. The average opening for the franchise is $40.9 million, a domestic gross of $184.9, and a worldwide total of $524 million. The highest grossing film was the forth addition Ghost Protocol with a domestic gross of $209.3 million (the highest domestic gross was M:I 2 at $215 million) and a worldwide gross of $694.7 million. The films in the franchise are not a huge draw domestically but perform extremely well overseas. The current projections have the film opening around $76.6 million, a domestic gross around $233.3 million, and a great worldwide total of $740 million.
I mainly based my models on the trends of the previous installments and the current projections for the film. The opening weekend could be as high as $76 million but as low as $51 million. The domestic gross could be as high as $343 million and as low as $233 million. The worldwide total can be as high as $972 million. This high amount for the worldwide is unlikely because no film in the franchise has made more than $700 million and will most likely fall around that range. If the film does end up being the best film in the franchise that high total could be a possibility due to how well the franchise has done in the past overseas.
Rouge Nation’s long-term success will hinge mainly on word of mouth. The film should open between $86.8 million and $52.1 million. The domestic gross should be between $307.4 and $184.4 million. The worldwide gross will be around $689.3 million. My prediction for this film is an opening of $75 million, a domestic gross of $250 million, and a worldwide total of $750 million.
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation
So far, projections for Vacation are very solid performance for this franchise. Current projections are an opening around $28 million and a domestic gross of $101.5 million. I was unable to use the trends of the previous installments because they were released so long ago and the final two were not rated R like first two or this new one. For my models I’ve used the trends of R rated comedies such as The Hangover or We’re The Millers, which this film is in the vain of. Based on those trends the film will open from $27 to $28 million. The domestic gross could be as high as $108.4 million. The worldwide gross could be around $195.2 million. Using the trends based on all R rated films the domestic gross could be as high as $149 million with a worldwide total of $312 million.
Vacation should have an opening weekend from $33.2 and $19.9 million. The domestic gross will be between $129.5 and $77.7 million. The worldwide total should not be higher than $209 million. With the two-day head start the gross after its first weekend should be around $30 to $40 million depending on world of mouth leading into the weekend. My prediction for the film is an opening weekend of $25 million, a domestic gross of $100 million, and a worldwide total around $180 million.
The films are both trending well and may have higher than anticipated openings. Its still tree weeks till these two films are released and the projections will change as the advertising campaigns shift into high gear.
Reviews are fantastic for Rogue Nation with 96% fresh rating from 28 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. This fourth addition to the franchise is by far the best reviewed. Current trends are a little low for the opening weekend but they may be soft. Even if the film does open lower then expected the excellent reviews indicate a positive word mouth in the future and will help with the long term success.
While Mission: Impossible continues to get rave reviews Vacation is suffering from the opposite. Vacation did debute with early Tuesday night screenings bringing in a little over $1 million but the film has a 30% rating on Rotten Tomatoes from poor reviews. There is a silver lining in the reviews after reading some of the poor reviews they are not actually as bad as it seam and a lot a reviewers did enjoy the film. Some of these poor reviews may have also been the product of holding it up to the original. The early audience responses sit at 67% liked it on Rotten Tomatoes but it is still too early to really weigh that one. Vacation may still open around $25 million but perhaps a little lower if word of mouth is poor leading into the weekend.
The weekend forecast from Boxoffice.com are out and both films will have at least a solid opening as of right now. Vacation is expected to have an opening weekend of $17 million but along with its revenue from prior to Friday the domestic gross will be $24 million. With poor word of mouth these totals will be a little lower, as well as the opposite could happen if the film overcomes the poor reviews and audiences like the movie.
Mission: Impossible is on track to open with $57 million but unlike the Vacation, it has very exceptional reviews which may give this film a little bit of boost going into the weekend. Audience responses should mirrior the reviews and should have a decent performence though August.
UPDATE 7/31/2015 NEW VACATION PREDICTION
Vacation has opened with $3.8 million in its first day at the box office. The word of mouth factor for the film is going to weigh hevily on the reboot and on Rotten Tomatoes Vacation has a kind of ok but perhaps not good enough 62% liked it from audiences. This luke warm response to the highly anticipated title may spell a dissaponting performance at the box office. I predict that the actual opening weekend will be $14 to $16 million and have final domestic gross under $75 million.
UPDATE 7/31/2015 ROGUE NATION
On Thursday night Mission: Impossible made a very solid $4 million and has been one of the best results from the early Thursday night showings. This is a great sign for the long term stability for the film. Word of mouth is already amazing with a 93% liked it on Rotten Tomatoes. The weekend forcast have the film opening around $50 to $60 million but may be more and with the decline of prospects for Vacation may benifit for the Mission: Impossible this weekend. I think the film still has a possibility of hitting my $75 million prediction and the forcast are based on the film performing well on Friday but then declining sharply on Saturday and Sunday. I'm betting that the film will be performing a lot better throughout the weekend.
The estimates for the weekend are out with Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation on top with $55 million. Vacation is in the number two spot with $13.5 million and domestic gross of $22.2 million but may drop a little more before the end of the weekend allowing Ant-Man or Minions to sneek into that spot.
The final weekend totals for are Vacation $14.6 million over the weekend and a domestic gross of $21 million. Mission: Impossible with $55.5 million domestically over the weekend, $62.3 million domestic gross, and $127.3 million worldwide.
Rogue Nation continues to perform well through out the week. Thus far, the film has brought in $74.7 million domestically and $139.7 million worldwide. Depending on how the weekend goes for Fantastic Four, Mission: Impossible 5 has a chance at the number one spot again this weekend. On Boxoffice.com the film is forcasted to make an additional $28 million this weekend and as the prospects continue to drop for Fantastic Four the film has a chance at being number one again but by a slim margin.
Vacation is still disappointing at the box office and has only made $26.6 million and is expected to be up to $35 million at the end of this weekend.
Mission: Impossible did slighty better than expected and its domestic gross is up to $108.6 million and $265.3 million worldwide gross. Vacation's gross is up to $37.3 million.
I have analyzed the second weekend performance of both films. Mission: Impossible looks like it could gross around $215 million but the film has been and will continue to performe very well during the week and is not declining very much from week to week. $215 million is most likely the lowest it could go. Looking at the performance of the other additions to the franchise the high number could be around $250 million. Perhaps it could even out gross this number with how well it has been received by audiences. The final worldwide total will be over $602 million.
Vacation's final gross will fall somewhere around $74 million.