I heard the convention wisdom is that the divorce rate is around 50%. I took a sample of just people I know (family, friends colleagues and neighbors) and I found the rate to be 20%. I did not include singles and people who cohabit. Just people who are married and what percent are divorced or married to a divorcee. I'm curious what your experience is. It is not a scientific study, just sampling.
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I understand all the points you raise but I am speaking from my own experience. I looked at 50 couples and I only came up with 20% divorces. That includes couples from beginning of marriage to life long marriages. It seems the 50% is too high.
What people will tell you is "give it time". Check in on those same couples in 10 or 20 years. The other thing about statistics is there may be 20% you know and another person has 70% they know. It's a random sampling (combined).
That's the reason for my question in the first place. What is your personal experience? Look at the people you associate with. It is a snapshot in time but it is a valid data collection method. The law of large numbers will give a good estimate.
If I were to go by people (I personally know) I would say the 50% is about right or higher! Both my parents were married and divorced twice. I have several relatives, friends, and co-workers I know of who have been divorced at least once.
Thanks for the feedback. I hope others will jump in and help out.
Checkout this article - http://qz.com/306166/the-divorce-stat-that-just-ke...