The Electoral 270: Obama-258 Romney-191

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   jacharlessposted 11 years ago

   So, it seems nearly obvious, with just 63 days to the General election, here in the States, Mr Obama is near victory, needing just 12 Electoral Votes to secure the win, versus Mr Romney 79. Since the EC is the ultimate deciding force, behind the winner, the general election could sway the a few more votes Romney's way, only in major/powerhouse Senate/Rep States. But I do not see how a margin of 79 can happen in such a short time frame. Seems also, the battleground campaign does not look like a battleground at all, more like a sleepy hollow.
   
   The last election was very interesting, to me, given the people involved. This feels more like a "shoe-in" situation rather than a traditional head to head. Do you think it was planned ahead of time, with both knowing the incumbent had 3/4 of the Electoral Vote going into the "race" and Mr Romney was put up there to insure his win?
   
   James
   
   
   

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      JaxsonRaineposted 11 years agoin reply to this

      First, wait until the debates start, and wait until Romney starts campaigning in swing states.
      
      Second, those maps aren't based on likely voters... Obama doesn't 'have' that many... neither candidate has any yet.

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         jacharlessposted 11 years agoin reply to this

         Actually, he does have the electoral advantage, regardless of the general election votes, which could swing the tally in either direction. In which case the remaining 114 undecided, at the general election, would have to go Mr Romney's direction. That is a tough field to plow.
         
         I hope you are right about the upcoming debates. Have never been a politico, but this "race" has me bored stiff. lol.
         James.

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            JaxsonRaineposted 11 years agoin reply to this

            I'm saying, Obama doesn't have 258 electoral votes. That's just based on polls, and not even polls of likely voters. So far the few polls of likely voters are showing in favor of Romney.
            
            Nobody has *any* electoral votes yet.

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            1. 60

               MarkAseposted 11 years agoin reply to this

               According to likely voters polls Kerry won in '04.  I think we all know those are just as worthless as the regular polls.  I will give you that the Republican base is likely to be inspired by the choice of Ryan as VP this cycle and should turn out better than last election when the democratic base was certainly more excited by Obama than they are now. All that being said, if Romney can't convince the old folks in FL that they were just kidding about entitlement reform, we can all go home now because the Republicans don't have a shot if Florida goes.

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                  KFlippinposted 11 years agoin reply to this

                  and Kerry in 2004 has to do with what..... exactly?

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                     MarkAseposted 11 years agoin reply to this

                     "Likely" voters polls are worthless....

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                        KFlippinposted 11 years agoin reply to this

                        Worthless, I'd say that applies to electoral votes from states where the population votes much differently than the electoral delegates......that have what exactly as their inspiration....could it it be mostly the hope to change  their personal economic circumstance via their electoral vote?

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                        JaxsonRaineposted 11 years agoin reply to this

                        It doesn't appear that you are right.
                        
                        http://www.gallup.com/poll/110272/regis … oters.aspx
                        
                        Gallup had Kerry up in registered voters, and Bush up in likely voters.
                        
                        Likely voters swings R over registered voters. Realclearpolitics shows Bush ahead period over Kerry, so I see no basis for your claim that likely voters are worthless.

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                  KFlippinposted 11 years agoin reply to this

                  So, are you aware of the the popular vote in 2008, versus the electoral vote?

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                     Cody Hodgeposted 11 years agoin reply to this

                     Obama won? What's your point?
                     
                     If you want a real gripe, check out 2000...

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            Ericdierkerposted 11 years agoin reply to this

            Fantastic Forum. So many different opinions as to where the candidates stand brings me to the conclusion it is very tight. I still think it is Obama's to lose.

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      KFlippinposted 11 years agoin reply to this

      The electoral vote is archaic and needs to be thrown out, we are all very aware of the issues, and the time is long past that some electoral delegate, who now is bribed with lots more sophistication and intent, should be considered a stronger more valued voice, or checking voice, to that of the general vote of the PEOPLE  of this great country...........

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      1. 75

         jacharlessposted 11 years agoin reply to this

         Actually the General Election or G-Vote, can sway the decided electoral Senators/Representatives on a state by state basis. Which is presumably the only reason there is a General Vote. True, the EC ultimately decides who wins -long before the polls and voting booths open. But just in case, to satisfy the public, they leave room for a G-vote swing or tie.
         Again am no politico. Am just merely curious at the process and bored to near death by the present "race" to the finish line in 62 days.
         
         James.

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   JaxsonRaineposted 11 years ago

   I think we'll see a lot more of things like this as time goes on:
   
   http://www.dickmorris.com/romney-has-bi … n-my-poll/

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   SassySue1963posted 11 years ago

   No idea where you've gotten these numbers because Real Clear Politics has Obama with 221 (dropped from 270) and Romney with 181 (dropped from 191). They base these results on the most recent state polls conducted and states within the margin of error are toss-up states. The only votes counted for either candidate are those where they have a significant lead.

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4. 78

   Mighty Momposted 11 years ago

   I saw a poll today that had Obama 9 points ahead with "likely" voters.
   But we don't know how the "unlikely" voters will vote.
   Don't count chickens or ECs till they're hatched!

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      JaxsonRaineposted 11 years agoin reply to this

      I saw a poll today with Romney ahead 8 points with likely voters, lol.

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         Cody Hodgeposted 11 years agoin reply to this

         538.com has had Obama with over 300 EV's for a few weeks now.
         
         Obama is going to win this pretty easily....

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            Mighty Momposted 11 years agoin reply to this

            You obviously didn't watch the convention tonight.
            I was still on the fence after Ann Romney but boy, Chris Christie has me ready to ditch my party move to New Jersey and take on the unions!

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               habeeposted 11 years agoin reply to this

               Nah, move to GA! Much better weather.

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            habeeposted 11 years agoin reply to this

            I think Obama will win, but I think it's going to be close - barring some big October surprise.

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               Cody Hodgeposted 11 years agoin reply to this

               Perhaps in the popular vote, but I don't see Romney coming close in the EC.

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5. 74

   Reality Bytesposted 11 years ago

   I saw Condi next to Mitt last night.  If she is going to be a part of his administration, the sooner the announcement is made, the better it will be for Mitt.  She is an election changer, impeccable character!

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      HowardBThinameposted 11 years agoin reply to this

      Absolutely agree.

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         KK Trainorposted 11 years agoin reply to this

         Me too, she could swing some people to Mitt's side with her dignity and brilliance. He is obviously courting her for something anyway...

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            MarkAseposted 11 years agoin reply to this

            As hopeful as that is....NO ONE is going to vote for Romney because they like his choice for Secretary of State.  We know by extensive polling over the course of 30+ years that VP picks don't really help or hurt overall, so pre-announcing cabinet members seems ridiculous.

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      Ralph Deedsposted 11 years agoin reply to this

      Condolezza Rice is highly over-rated. I just heard her pronounce American ingenuity as angenueity. She qualified her self as an ingenue when she supported Bush's foolish, unnecessary, costly invasion of Iraq.

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         KFlippinposted 11 years agoin reply to this

         You sound like a jerk who is being selective with intent in your criticisms, you are intellectually well above that, so I'm surprised greatly to see this comment from you.  Do you really want to to get in to a discussion about pronunciation of words from parties from both sides?  I'm appalled, yet feel your desperateness, in your petty criticism of Rice's pronunciation of ingenuity, and realizing that desperation, I am taken from appalled to gladdened and happy that the Republican party will prevail and save this country from utter ruin.

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            SassySue1963posted 11 years agoin reply to this

            @KFlippin I don't know why it would surprise you. Such demeaning and discrediting of any non-white Republican comes from the left so frequently and easily.

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               KFlippinposted 11 years agoin reply to this

               You are quite right . . . I simply wish you were not, and we did not, see the same perspective here, particularly from contributors who have long since shown their ability to think with their own mind . . .

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               Cody Hodgeposted 11 years agoin reply to this

               That's kinda why I was rooting for Herman Cain. It would be interesting to see what would have happened if it was a black man against another black man.
               
               I would think that heads would explode on both sides

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