Confirmation Bias: What is it, How it affects You, Where do You See it, and How to Deal With biased information people
Confirmation bias is a universal problem that had been recognized as far back as the classical Greek period.
Confirmation bias can be found everywhere. Recently, Michael Maslansky commented on confirmation bias regarding politics in America. On a different subject, John Kay commented on how confirmation bias affected the lessons learned from the world-wide recession.
Recent research suggests that some people are more susceptible to it due to genetic and neurological factors. The problem with this bias is very few people recognize it, and when confronted, tend to claim they do not have it. However, when taken to extreme forms, they can account for radicalization and various phobias and many other problems.
The cause, the effects, and some coping mechanisms of confirmation bias will be discussed.
What is "Confirmation Bias"?
Confirmation bias is basically the mind taking shortcuts choose to seek out and accept the information that fits your existing mental model or viewpoint, instead of all information available. In other words, your mind is biased to seek information in order to confirm your viewpoint.
Below are some examples:
Confirmation Bias in Politics
Political pundits base their existence on confirmation bias. Political commentators like Arianna Huffington or Ann Coulter are there to filter the world to their views, both left and right. People read them not for information, but for confirmation of their own beliefs.
The Colbert Report is a satirical show on Comedy Central channel where Stephen Colbert satires conservative politics. Republican Mike Huckabee actually thanked Colbert for his support once when he was clearly being made fun of. It is confirmation bias at work... The liberals saw Colbert Report as satire, while conservatives saw Colbert Report as genuine praise. Each side only saw what they wanted to see.
Confirmation Bias in Finance
Confirmation Bias in finance leads to many problems, including the bandwagon effect, where people buy the "hot" stock, making it rise even further, as a confirmation of their belief that the stock will rise. This also leads to only listening to analysts who agree with your views and ignoring the rest who may be giving "better" advice.
When those stocks fall, that turns into "sunken cost fallacy". The owner refuses to sell, hoping that those stocks will recover. They are basically ignoring the falling prices and remembering the tops and gains in the past.
Confirmation Bias in Health
Hypochondria and various other Phobias (including paranoia) are basically negative confirmation bias, where the patient keep on noticing negative clues and experiences which reinforces his or her negative expectations.
Confirmation Bias in Paranormal
"Psychics" and mediums that claim to communicate with the dead at a "cold reading" usually makes a huge number of ambiguous statements and reading various clues from the crowd or the subject to determine how to continue. Those who believe in paranormal and afterlife will recall much higher "accuracy" of the statements than they actually were.
Confirmation Bias in Law
In jury trials, research have found that jurors very often have made up their mind very early in the trial, and are only looking for evidence to confirm his or her expectations. Therefore, all efforts are made to make sure the suspect is presented as innocent as possible in order not to bias the jury. For example, suspects are not to appear in court in prison garb at jury trials. It predisposes the jury to the idea that the suspect is guilty.
Confirmation Bias in Science
Scientific Procedure are often designed specifically to combat confirmation bias, by performing double-blind trials and randomization, plus peer review (though peer review itself may be subject to confirmation bias of the reviewers).
Confirmation Bias in Self-Image
Affirmation is basically positive confirmation bias applied to oneself. Through presenting positive feedback to oneself, one hopes to reinforce the positive self-image through confirmation bias.
Three Types of Confirmation Bias
Experts identified three types of confirmation bias: biased search, biased interpretation, and biased memory.
Biased search -- when searching for data, data that match expectations were included, while information that do not were skipped or assigned lesser importance. This is often known as "cherry picking".
Biased interpretation -- information were reinterpreted to match expectations. Even if two people observed the same events, their interpretation can be completely opposite due to biased interpretation. Each only saw what each wanted to see.
Biased memory -- even if interpretation was neutral, the person in question may have on remembered the event selectively to fit their expectations, by remembering items that do fit the expectations, and not remembering the items that do not. This is sometimes called "selective recall", or "access-biased memory". It is a less-conscious version of "biased search".
So where do confirmation bias come from? It's in your head.
Neurological Cause of Confirmation Bias
Various studies have shown that different areas of the brain receive information and process the information, then another area gathers the various inputs and makes a decision on which path to follow.
A recent study at Brown University (published in April 20th, 2011 issue of Journal of Neuroscience) on 70 volunteers have found that some people gave more weight to information that confirms their existing experiences, while giving less weight to information that contradicts their existing experiences. In other words, they are pre-disposed by their genetics to have confirmation bias.
To be specific, two areas of the brain are affected: prefrontal cortex, and striatum. The prefrontal cortex is used to process and file second-hand information received, such as advice ("wear sunscreen"), while the striatum is used to process first-hand experiences ("I got sunburned, I should wear sunscreen"). When the brain decides to discount first-hand experience (striatum) in favor of second-hand advice (prefrontal cortex), that brain is said to have confirmation bias.
In the study, the volunteers were given a test on something they know nothing about, but were given "hints" which were not always right. Later, they found that some hints they were given was wrong. If they continue to give the wrong answer (i.e. relying on the hint even though it was wrong), they have confirmation bias.
In people with the COMT gene variation, which affects how dopamine affects the prefrontal cortex, the participant with one variation was able to disregard the bad advice more often than the other variation. Let's arbitrarily call "ignore bad more" C-A and "ignore bad less" C-B.
In people with the DARPP-32 gene variation (which affects how dopamine affects the striatum) the participants with one variation learned the new experience faster, but also got stuck with WRONG advice they learned longer. Let's call "stuck wrong more" D-A and "stuck wrong less" D-B.
Thus, if you got the genes C-B and D-A, you are more prone to confirmation bias than the other three combinations.
(Read more about this experiment: http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/80beats/2011/04/21/genes-may-influence-how-often-people-follow-bad-advice/)
Extreme Confirmation Bias
When confirmation bias goes to the extreme, it causes many additional problems.
Polarization of opinion
As each person's expectations are reinforced by additional confirmation, that person's attitude for that expectation becomes more extreme and polarized. This often leads to serious conflict on controversial issues such as abortion, gun control, death penalty, and such. This is known as radicalization.
The more radicalized a person becomes, the less they talk with "normal" people (they feel alienated and out of place) and more with the like-minded radicals, leading to further radicalization. It is a positive feedback loop. Terrorists often result from such radicalization and alienation
Persistence of discredited belief
Even when one's belief was proven to be false, such belief was not completely erased from one's mind, but remained somewhere in the background in a lesser state, still influencing the decision process. In other words, one cannot completely cure oneself of confirmation bias except through time and conscious effort.
Furthermore, the mind can sometimes rationalize itself into loopholes thus justifying something that were completely unjustifiable when viewed from the outside. Participants in a pyramid scheme often refuse to acknowledge that they are in a pyramid scheme, even when confronted with the truth, such as arrest of their "leader". (Here's an example in South Africa)
Preference for early information
Another form of confirmation bias gives more weight to earlier information in the decision process, even when the order was not important. The earlier information lead the brain to assess less weight toward the subsequent conflicting information. It is a form of biased interpretation.
Scams often work by presenting you with only good information, hiding the neutral or bad information. Even later, when you get the whole picture, the early "good" information is now stuck in your mind and somehow outweighs the later "bad" information, even though they should have cancelled out.
Illusory Association between events
illusory correlation is a tendency to see non-existent correlations in a set of data. In other words, to see pattern where there is no pattern. This is another variation of biased interpretation, where non-corresponding or neutral data was discounted / ignored to form a correlation.
In extreme form, this leads to pronoia or paranoia: seeing positive / negative things that are not there.
How to Spot Confirmation Bias In Yourself (and others)
Confirmation Bias is not always bad. It can be a useful tool in some rare occasions, such as self-image therapy. However, in most cases, it is indeed a bad thing to have, esp. in extreme forms.
The easy access to information given by the Internet (such as how you found your way to this hub) also means that even the craziest theories can often find SOME sort of supporting "evidence", such as the various satiric articles from The Onion (many were often quoted as if they were real), and proliferation of various conspiracy theories.
Thus, to avoid confirmation bias, you must intentionally seek information supporting BOTH SIDES. If you are researching "Is theory A true?" You will also need to research for "Is theory A false?" Then make a conscious decision to study the both sets of data, and to interpret them in a neutral manner as much as possible.
Furthermore, you must seek to verify and validate every bit of information you found. As Hemingway said long ago, you must have your own crap detector. If you have confirmation bias, you will end up using crap to justify your own expectations, and the result will be disastrous, esp. if the conclusion is used to justify something of significance.
All good convincing arguments should explain issues on both sides. If the argument is completely one-sided, the argument is very likely showing confirmation bias.
Confirmation bias is a mental loop where you dig a hole for yourself. Most people don't dig that hard, so they don't have much of a hole to get out of. However, some people are very good diggers... so they dig a hole so deep they may not get out... like the Nigerian kid who tried to bomb an airliner a while back, who got radicalized in UK.
Please watch yourself, and don't dig that deep of a hole for yourself. Watch out for confirmation bias in yourself and others.
More on Confirmation Bias
- Identifying Bias and Fallacies
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