The Five Step Strategy to Overpass The Coronavirus Pandemic
During this universal panic state of coronavirus and all the damages it causes to the usual life of peoples, many started asking the question: how we can overpass this pandemic and back to the normal life with less damages?
From previous experiences, epidemiologists talk about five step plan that could help slow the spread of an epidemic, contain it, and if it goes well eradicate it.
1- Lockdown and Quarantine as an Urgent Step
In a large outbreak such as that of the novel coronavirus with no available treatment, the lockdown of all aspects of the social life becomes necessary and urgent. it means no school, no concerts, no football matches, strict restrictions on individual movements and activities, and the most important isolation and quarantine for the infected cases, it’s all about "stay home, stay safe." Why is all that?
An unknown virus can cause a huge impact in terms of deaths and economic damages, so the lockdown measurements can slow the rate of new cases, reducing the impact and the pressure on the health system, allow best medical care for critical cases.We can simply summarize the effect of lockdown on coronavirus spreading by flattening the curve of new cases, as it's explained in this video:
However, the lockdown only slows the virus spread, it can’t eradicate it, as the director general of WHO said: "the last thing any country needs is to open schools and businesses, only to be forced to close them again because of a resurgence." So how to avoid an endless cycle of lockdowns? here comes the role of medicaments as the second step.
2- The Coronavirus Medicaments is Necessary
The lockdown state occurred in many countries of the world gave "more time with less costs" for scientists to develop medicaments for the novel coronavirus such as Chloroquine, Remdesivir, Avigan, which helps in reducing the death rate and increase the recovery cases among those who are infected beside maintain many others in mild symptoms phase.
These results reduce more pressure on the health system and lead to gradually lift restriction on social life with social distance strategies and keeping those with chronic diseases at home.
Although the results of antiviral medicaments, we can’t back to the normal life because the infection process occurs faster than the recovery process which will lead us to another outbreak. On the other hand, we can use the recovery cases increasing and less pressure on the health system beside gradually lifted restriction to go to step 3 and accelerate the return to the normal life.
3- The Notion of Cattle Immune in Coronavirus Pandemic
This notion was responsible for the disappearing of many epidemics in the past when there is no antiviral medicaments or medical care. It’s simple, when an epidemic spread out, many die and few recover. By the time, numbers of those recovered become more and the virus will have less chances to find a host with no previous infection among those survived, because those recovered have less chances to be infected again, so less chances to infect others, and in the end it disappears naturally.
Unfortunately, the natural disappearance of an epidemic can’t occur without millions of deaths as in the Spanish flu in 1918. However, it’s possible in the novel coronavirus pandemic, as the antiviral medicaments and medical care help in reducing the death rate and increase the recovery cases. With gradually lifted restriction, it’s a matter of time now.
4- How Can Viral Genetic Mutation Help?
According to epidemiologists, the flu viruses generally become more and more weak and have less ability to cause severe symptoms as they transmitted from one person to another, and this because of the mutation in their genetic code. This what happened to previous viruses such as Swine flu and SARS. If this is the same for the novel coronavirus, then it’s his end. except that, the step 5 (the vaccine) will be the last shot.
5- The Coronavirus Vaccine as a Definitive Solution
Even if we succeed to contain the novel coronavirus with very few infected cases, ending of the lockdown and especially when the colder months come, may launch another outbreak. So the vaccine step will be necessary for more safe, although it takes time, at least a year to test a vaccine for safety, effectiveness and side effects and that time will be guaranteed by the four previous steps.
One last question: what if none of these procedures made a progress to stop the spreading of coronavirus?. In this case, it will remain only one option: applying the biological war procedures, and this is another subject.