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Futures, E-Mini S and P 500, July 8th 2014

Updated on July 8, 2014

E-Mini S and P 500 July 8th, 2014

E-Mini S and P 500

July 8th, 2014


With a small pullback by the Bulls during the premarket hours, a contrarian move by the Bears at the opening would honor the usual fade of the opening play.

Bar number one revealed such strategy, and with bar number two calling for a small pullback by the Bulls due to algorithmic probability of price action, it represented a conservative strategy by the Bears to reengage on the high of bar number three.

With the closing the bar number for near its low, lower prices are in 60 x 40 probability. Bar number five closed near it’s low, establishing an open from the bear day, which could lead to a strong bear trend day.


Bar number six represent yet another opportunity by some bears to reengage in the trend and establish new short positions at the height of it. Following with bar number seven lower prices remain within 60 x 40 probability.


As per algorithmic probability of price action, a pullback by the Bulls is in due order. However, inertia remains with the Bears. Bar number 14 can set up a pullback short near the moving average.


The formation of bar 17, as a doji bar, establishes probable shorts for scalpers.


As per algorithmic probability of price action, a run by the Bulls, whether there are contrarians or simply bears covering some of their shorts, prices could look to the moving average from the low bar 21. However, inertia remains strongly with the Bears.


A solid selling climax from bars 18 to 24, could establish a support level depending on the bars coming up.


Signs of strong support are now in evidence with bar 26 closing at its high, which can again sent another short opportunity by new bears at the moving average.


That was a good scalp short from the high of bar 26 to the low bar 28; however, signs of support are aiming to bring prices with in these ranges as a probable bottom.


Prices are showing signs of a trading range formation, bar 28 two bar 32, consolidation is apparent; and momentum is shifting away from the Bears.


Accumulation of buying pressure is on the buildup. With bar 33 closing near its high prices could topple over the moving average within the next few bars.


The formation of bar 39, which closed near its high and pierced through the moving average, states the case for higher prices well above the moving average. A swing play by the Bulls could be established at this moment; with a stop loss one tick below bar 34; and with a target line somewhere around the 1962 price range.


Two-sided trading is apparent, however, accumulation of buying pressure is clear. Thus, higher prices are imminent. Buying at the moving average is a conservative play for the Bulls.

Aggressive buyers engage in long positions just below the moving average, the bar 44 low, presented that opportunity.


With the closing of bar 45 near its high and surpassing the previous 20 highs or so, we can declare the market is always in long. At this point traders could buy for any reason.


The strong showing by the Bulls, from bars 44 to 47, did setup a pullback buy at the bar 48 low after the algorithmic probability of price action call for it at the bar 48 high. Higher prices are imminent once again.


The market has reached near the target line by three ticks; along with the top tails in bar 50 and 51, a pullback to the moving average would have a 60 x 40 probability.

Bars 52 to 54 note that this premise will be honored.


With bar 56 along the algorithmic probability of price action a buying set up is established from the low of bar 57, with a target of a double top with a high bar 51.

However, after bar 58 closing near its low, the accumulation of selling pressure is becoming apparent.


Two-sided trading is apparent, however bears appear to be accumulating points. Of the past 10 bars, six are bear bodies. The market is in a clear trading range mode.


With the close of bar 61 on its low, lower prices are imminent, thus, the market is always in short. Moreover, we are at an inflection time.

The Combinations of bar 63 and 64 denotes two sided trading in favor of the Bears.


The closing of bar 65 near low brings the probability of lower prices 60 x 40.

5 minute chart.

15 minute chart.


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