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Futures, E Mini S&P 500, July 10, 2014

Updated on July 10, 2014

5 minute chart

E-Mini S and P 500

July 10th, 2014


The bear micro channel during premarket hours offered the idea to fade the opening by the Bulls. Bar number one displayed a bullish run dictated by algorithmic probability of price action along with it. Bar number two carry prices way above the moving average establishing a strong case for the Bulls.


Aggressive traders establish new positions on the buying side once bar number five begin to establish itself as a bull body. Closing the bar number seven dictated the market is always in long.


Bar number eight was a reaffirmation by the Bulls along with the algorithmic probability of price action for a pullback; which, offered a buying opportunity once again for moderate traders to participate in the bull trend.


A buying climax is evident with the formation of bar 11 closing on its high. A sensible strategy at this point is to buy pullbacks. Bar 14 offered such opportunity.

There is no evidence of resistance after bar 15. Higher prices have a 60 x 40 probability.


Higher prices came about and no resistance seems apparent at the moment; with bar 16 closing near its high the Bulls appear eager to move the market even higher.


Bar 19 is the first sign of any resistance for the past seven bars. Still, inertia is clearly with the Bulls, thus, sensible strategy is to buy pullbacks where eager Bulls at support levels, such as the moving average, will meet the bears.


Signs of profit-taking by the Bulls are apparent at the moment, however, inertia is bullish. Resistance levels appear between bars 20 and 24, however, still strong inertia to carry prices higher.


A double bottom is trying to form with bar 18, which, would bring prices just about the moving average. This represents a buying opportunity in the foreseeable future.


As per algorithmic probability of price action a run by the Bulls from the moving average and the low of bar 25, is called for.


Previous premise has been fulfilled and the market is trying to make a double top with bar 19. More signs of resistance are coming to light. If bar 26 closes above its mid point, the market presents two-sided price action.


Two-sided price action is taking hold until the market participants decide to take profits or continue the trend. Inertia is clearly with the Bulls. Aggressive traders could buy at the low of bar 27.


Two-sided price action is evident as the market looks for direction with bullish inertia.


The presence of bar 30 established the probability of higher prices above it before we see a correction bellow it. The market currently finds itself in a trading range.


As per algorithmic probability of price action a run by the Bears from the high of bar 32, calls for profit-taking move to the moving average. Moreover, accumulation of selling pressure appears to be on the rise. A swing by the Bears could be established from the high of bar 32 with a stop loss one tick above bar 19, and with the target one tick below bar 17. ("Bad Move".13:00)


Prices were met at the moving average by eager bulls, creating a buying climax from bar 34 to about 36.


Inertia is strongly bullish. The play of the day was to rengage a long position from the moving average. We might encounter the first signs of resistance if bar 36 closes below its mid point. However, since inertia is with the Bulls, buying pullbacks is the most sensible strategy at this point. Algorithmic probability of price action calls for a run by the Bears from the high of bar 37.


Yet again signs of resistance are apparent between bars 36 and 38. However, inertia strongly remains with the Bulls. Market participants will look to buy pullbacks, specially, around the moving average.


Higher prices appear imminent. The formation of bar 38 does not help the case for the Bears. Additionally, the market is in a trading range.


More two-sided trading with inertia on the side of the Bulls. The likelihood of higher prices above bar 37, are increasing.


As per algorithmic probability of price action a run by the Bulls from the low bar 41 is called for. With prices at the moving average, a rebound above it can be expected.


Market is rebounding from the moving average as expected; moreover, inertia remains bullish with a tendency of sideways price action.

Five minute chart

15 minute chart

later, 5 minutes chart


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