Futures, E-Mini S&P 500, June 26ht 2014
Technical Analysis of the E-Mini S&P 500
E-futures S and P 500
June 26, 2014
The market faded the opening by the Bears given that the momentum during the premarket hours was bullish. Algorithmic probability of price action, two bars before the opening, call for a bearish run, as is noted by the magenta down arrow.
Bar number one closed near its low, fitting the mentality of the opening traders, which is, to play a reversal. Bar number two represented a selling opportunity for conservative traders who thereafter the presence of bar one, sold the first pullback in what appears to be "from the open bear".
Inertia is clearly with the Bears, thus, traders will look to make emphasis for trades in the selling side. The formation of bar five, states the first support level and setting up a run to the moving average by bears covering their initial shorts of the day.
As mentioned before, short covering is created an opportunity for new bears to initiate new shorts at the moving average. The top tail in bar 11 clearly demonstrates this strategy by the Bears.
New shorts will look to match the low of bar number 10. This will probably bring about a more two-sided trading price action.
Algorithmic probability of price action calls for a run by the Bulls in the low of bar 15. This is noted with the green up arrow.
With the close of bar 15 the Bulls made a feature of significance; which, for the market represents the buildup of buying pressure. Conservative traders will wait for prices to reach above the moving average, in order to consider new shorts. And, for the Bulls a safer place to reengage with new longs could be the low of bar 15. At the moment the prudent expectation is that of a trading range. Aggressive traders could buy at this moment with a stop loss one tick below bar 15.
With bars 18 and the closing of bar 19 on its high, inertia has been declared for the Bulls. The market can be considered as always in long. Conservatives traders will buy pullbacks.
Buying energy has been accumulated from bar 15 to 20, and if prices remain above the moving average, traders will make emphasis in initiating new positions on the buy side. The closing of bar 20 will be a factor in terms of where it takes place in relation to the moving average.
The premise stated before remains; the Bulls are in control. This is a buying opportunity; a double bottom with bar 18 in a pull back while inertia is with the Bulls.
Market minds two-sided trading with inertia going with the bulls. As per technical analysis, projecting a measure move from bars 5 to 11, the bull-run could reach the 1951 price levels; giving that the Bears do not present new arguments for their case before hand.
With the closing of bar 27 near its high, buying accumulation is reemphasized; inertia clearly remains with the Bulls.
Algorithmic probability of price action calls for a run by the Bears; if honored, prices could reach just below the moving average. At this point, support could manifest by bulls looking to reengage with the long positions.
The bottom tail in bar 29 illustrates the previous premise.
Inertia remains with the Bulls. Higher prices are imminent.
WORLD CUP INTERMISSION.
The market remains in a trading range just about the midpoint of the overall price average of the day.
This price action behavior, which is two-sided trading, appears to be with more accumulation for the buying side. Moreover, the market also waits for comments by a FOMC speaker. This will take place at 1300.
The market is watching the World Cup.
Algorithmic probability of price action, calls for a small correction to the low bar 50. Prudence in strategy will attempt a pullback buy between the low of bar 50, and the moving average. Inertia clearly remains with the Bulls.
Two-sided price action can be expected until the inflection time of 1430. At which point, we could see the spike down to the moving average, or below, where support is more likely.
Algorithmic probability of price action calls for a run by the bulls at the close of bar 57. Buying opportunity for aggressive buyers, with a scalp range target.
Buyers will look to make a double top with the market, at bar 51.