Futures, E-Mini S&P 500, June 27th 2014
E-Mini Futures S&P 500, June 27, 2014
E-futures S and P 500
June 27, 2014
As the premarket trading range tended with lower lows, the opening was faded as usual by contrarians; in this case that represented a move by the Bulls.
With "open from the bull day" bar number zero through bar number two, inertia was established by the Bulls. Conservative traders will look to buy pullbacks at the moving average.
Algorithmic probability of price action calls for a shorts' run by the Bears, thus, a test to the bull opening.
The market reached and penetrated the moving average. Here with significant support by the Bulls, a reversal took place, due to established new long positions.
With the closing of bar 11 as a bull bar with it's closing near its high, and overtaking the highs of the previous five bars, the market can be considered as always in long.
Prices below bars 8 and 9 could be considered as the lows of the day; thus, at this point the most logical strategy would be to buy pullbacks, and make emphasis with trades on the buying side.
Bars 13 and 14, proved this premise with the bottom tails in each bar. Clearly inertia is with the Bulls.
With the closing of bar 19 at its high, and the formation of bar 20 as a bear bar, signs of resistance are clear, however, if prices approach the moving average, support will be manifested with a probable push by the Bulls.
With the formation of bars 22 and 23 the previous premise was proved. However, significant signs of resistance by the Bears, between bars 20 and 22, present the case for a trading range.
The market is in the clear trading range mode, and with two-sided trading range we buy low sell high and scalp.
Algorithmic probability of price action, calls for a run by the Bears at the top of bar 30 noted by the magenta down arrow.
The market finds itself in a two-sided trading range, and will look for signs of direction shortly after the midday. Accumulation of selling pressure appears to be in the build up. However, inertia remains with the Bulls.
The market is without clear direction at the moment, but again signs point towards a bullish move since we find ourselves at the bottom of the trading range at the moment.
Accumulation of selling pressure is on the rise; depending on the strength of this correction the market could turn into a bear trend. The closing of bar 39, with a significant bottom tail as a feature right to the mid point, states the uncertainty of the market participants.
In the one-hour time frame chart, the market is in a clear trading range that goes back to the previous three trading sessions; however, signs of resistance are making predominance. Algorithmic probability of price action, calls for a short position on this timeframe.
In the daily timeframe chart, a double top price formation has been honored; and the algorithmic probability of price action was also honored for the Bears. However, this action by the Bears was confronted by significant support by the Bulls. Clearly, in this timeframe, inertia remains with the Bulls.
Market has remained in a trading range with an emphasis for the Bears. Selling pressure is accumulating once again. The clear bear micro-channel is taking form, as, it is noted by the magenta bear trend channel line.
With the close of bar 43, on it s low, a run by the Bears appears imminent. If this takes place with the bar 44 closing near its low, the market should be considered always in short.
A key threshold should be the penetration of the low of bar 39 by the Bears. Aggressive traders could sell for any reason at this moment.
Market is always in short. With the closing of bar 44 at its low, and forming a double bottom with bar 39, there is only two bull bars, in the past 15 bars. Conservatives traders could look to short near the moving average.
Algorithmic probability of price action, calls for a long run towards the moving average from the low bar 46. The market is always in short.
Logical strategy at this point is to sell pullbacks. With the formation of bar 46, as a clear feature in today's market, of prominence, the Bears have regained control of the market. Aggressive traders could sell for any reason.
The algorithmic probability mentioned above, was honored from the low of bar 46, and it will be met with strong resistance from the Bears as it nears the moving average.
Inertia is now with the Bears. Mid range traders will look to short at the midpoint of bar 46, and conservatives, will look to short as close as possible to the moving average.
Expect this Bull’s run to be met with resistance by the Bears, and with the formation of bar 49 this premise has been proven; the top tail on it is evidence of that.