Futures, E-mini S&P 500, July 16, 2014
Five minute chart
E-Mini S and P 500
July 16th, 2014
The market opened with the usual fade, with a bearish correction during premarket hours followed by a double top with bar number one and with algorithmic probability of price action calling for a run by the Bears from the high bar number two, such fade was complete.
Bar number 5 pushed prices to always in short with its low, however bulls decided to take their act of appearance for the first time. Although, inertia is with the Bears, shorts are waiting at the moving average. Thus, the top tials in bars number seven, eight, and nine.
The previous premise was honored with a double bottom bar 11' S low. The market is always in short. Inertia remains with the Bears and a sensible strategy is to short pullbacks.
The previous premise was honored and the Bears initiating new shorts near the moving average taking prices to the low bar 17. Here, algorithmic probability of price action calls for a run by the Bulls, and prices could be expected to reach the moving average.
The previous premise was honor to the high of bar 21 high, where algorithmic probability of price action calls for a run by the Bears. Coupled with inertia with the Bears, expect new shorts at the moving average.
The market remains always in short following the selling of the moving average. Although, signs of support have been presented between bars 18 and 21.
Inertia remains with the Bears at the moment until a double bottom is conceived with or near today's low. Two-sided trading is sneaking in between bars 23 and 25.
Inertia appears to be shifting, thus, algorithmic probability of price action calls for a run by the Bulls from the low bar 26. A double bottom has formed. We are reaching highly probable support levels.
Strong action by the Bears took the low bar 26 to the measure move level at 1969.5. Inertia remains with the Bears with sellers waiting near or at the moving average.
As expected a rebound bar by the Bulls with bar 27 showed signs of support. Inertia is clearly with the Bears.
The Bulls are making their presence known, thus, two-sided trading is apparent with bullish price action closing on the moving average, where you shorts are waiting to reengage in today's bear trend.
Algorithmic probability of price action calls for a run by the Bears from the bar 31 high. This presents an opportunity to sell a pullback in a bear trend that has reached the moving average.
Inertia is shifting for the Bulls. Higher prices are probable.
Inertia is now with the Bulls, with bar 32 as today's significant feature, higher prices are imminent. The strategy has shifted to now buying pullbacks. There are many contributing factors for today's volatility. Scheduled speakers and reports weigh heavily in today's price action.
Market can be declared as always in long, with a strong bullish breakout between bars 27 and 34; this represents a dramatic reversal, which could lead to a double top with today's high with bar number two at the opening.
Higher prices are imminent, however, a probable pullback near the low bar 33 could be a sensible entry for new longs wanting to reengage with this bullish breakout.
Algorithmic probability of price action calls for a run by the Bears from the high bar 36, which could lead to a buying opportunity near the moving average.
Inertia strongly lies with the Bulls, with seven out of nine consecutive bull bars; the extreme buying energy shows no sign of resistance. Higher prices are imminent.
After such a dramatic bullish breakout and climax, the market has finally taken a pause with bar 38 as the only bear body in the past 45 minutes. Rest assured that buyers lie in near or at the moving average in order to reengage with new long positions.
Algorithmic probability of price action calls for a run by the Bulls from the low bar 40. The probability of prices closing near today’s high is 60 x 40 discounting any major news.
Signs of two-sided trading place the market in a trading range mode, however, inertia strongly lies with the bulls. Sensible traders are looking to buy pullbacks, and the low bar 42 could represent such price action. Ideally, buying at the moving average is preferred.
The double top with bar 37 denotes two-sided trading, but inertia lies with the Bulls.
Higher prices are imminent with the closing of bar 43 near its high.