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Technical Signals for Option Trades - 2015 04 30
Searching for Trade Signals
These are indicators that I track every day for 20 large cap stocks. I have back tested these indicators since January 2010 searching for signals that have a 70% success rate in predicting a 3% stock move within 4 weeks.
Whenever a stock gives a signal for an indicator that has historically given a 70% success rate, it will show up in the UP or DOWN columns under Signal.
These signals are specific to each stock. For example, the stock price crossing above the 50 Day Moving Average for AAPL has a success rate of 70%, but for XOM it is 41%. Therefore, when this occurs for AAPL it will show as a Signal. But when this happens for XOM, it will not show as a SIgnal.
Technicals for 2015 04 29
Signal: This is the number of technical signals met for this day that have a 70% historical success rate for predicting a 3% move in the stock price within the next 4 weeks.
Trend: This is where the technicals are for 7 Indicators:
Stock Price vs. 20 Day Moving Average
Stock Price vs. 50 Day Moving Average
9 Day RSI above or below 50
14 Day RSI above or below 50
Money Flow for the Day is Positive
5 Day Total Money Flow for the Day is Positive
Change in Accumulation/Distribution Calculation is Positive
These are the 6 trade signals generated today:
FB CALL $80 JUN - $2.26
ABC CALL $115 JUN - $3.00
AXP CALL $80 JUN - $0.88
CAT CALL $87.50 JUN - $2.10
VRX CALL $220 JUN - $9.20
CELG CALL $110 JUN - $4.75
Signals may conflict with your perceptions of the overall market. During those times, you should be very selective about which options you trade. Waiting for the market and the signals to be in alignment (ie. you predict the market will go up AND the signals are for CALLS) is prudent.
FB: It's 9 Day RSI crossed above it's 14 Day RSI. However, all 7 signals are showing negative. I would avoid this stock right now.
ABC: This stock has 3 signals, after reporting earnings. And 5 of the technicals are positive. The three signals include: Stock Price crossed above the 20 Day Moving Average, the 9 Day RSI crossed above the 14 Day RSI and the 5 Day Money Flow turned positive.
AXP: The 9 Day RSI crossed above the 14 Day RSI. There are more technicals in the negative vs. positive. I would avoid this stock.
CAT: The 9 Day crossed above the 14 Day RSI. The stock has 6 technicals in the positive.
VRX: The 9 Day RSI crossed above the 14 Day RSI and the MACD crossed above the 9 Day EMA MACD. In addition, 6 of the technicals are positive. VRX has shown a positive signal each of the previous 2 days and has moved higher since the first signal by 7%. So, if you are in this alerady, no need to enter again unless you have triggered your 50% profit. If so, then you can enter again at a higher Strike Price.