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Will the Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Crash Recover?
Bitcoin Bubble or Bust
Cryptocurrency Experts Expect Another Bubble
Although there are many mixed sentiments about the current future of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, many experts are saying that it will likely recover and either stabilizer at a new balanced price or start another price bubble. To be clear, I am neither a certified financial advisor, nor am I providing financial advice, just my observations and expectations.
I also agree with the experts predicting a bubble. Although history is too short to be certain of any patterns yet, there are some indications to suggest the market decline is slowing and actually reversing direction, but only mildly.
Initially, I predicted the market price at Coinbase would decline to around $6000 USD and reverse, but it already reached $6400 USD and is showing positive signs of reversal already. We may yet see the $6000 price, but it is more likely to bounce up again before that and I'lI explain why many including myself think so.
Key indicators show likely market direction.
Key Market Indicators
Whenever you try to predict and evaluate whether a market will rise or fall, there are key signals or indicators that appear in the market fluctuation patterns that identify what a market is most likely to do.
No single indicator should be used, especially in a market with a price as unstable as cryptocurrency. However, three or more signals in combination together gives a pretty clear indication of direction. Still, to be fair this is still a guessing game not unlike predicting the weather so it isn't a clear cut science.
To visualise these we use a few market graphs. The candlesticks format is among the most popular to get a view of the current direction of the market which identifies the first signal. This is a weak signal since the market is constantly fluctuating. However, a general direction emerges over the course of a day more clearly indicating the current trend. Right now as of April 1 the market has indications of a definite positive trend. This is promising, but by itself does not indicate a turnaround.
Historical Pattern Indicators
Patterns in the market historically can help us predict the most likely future directions, since patterns often repeat themselves.
Good or Bad Market Patterns
When the market rises or falls there is a buy and sell trail that gets created. Detecting the pattern of when the market buy and sell points overlap and the patterns they produce on the graph along with the following rise or fall results can help with predicting the pattern when that same pattern re-emerges later on. Just like life, market history often repeats itself.
It so happens that the current pattern is similar to the pattern that emerged in February when the market recovered and spiked again in March. This is a good sign. It indicates a likely second spike coming this month although it is still unlikely to reach the levels of December or March due to the pattern being more muted and the reduced volume compared to last month.
We could be in for a ride this month.
Get In, Get Out, or Get Run Over
To conclude this market evaluation, what should we do then? Is it a good time to buy in, or should we be bailing out like a sinking ship? Well, all indications point to this being a good time to buy in right now with a good likelyhood of the market rising significantly.
Still, it is important to remember that past performance is not a foolproof indicator of future performance, so predicting markets is like predicting the weather and beyond two days it is hard to say for sure. Nonetheless, I am confident based on the current market indicators that we are looking forward to an uptrend this month.
I still leave you with a warning. Like the uptrend in March, it will be short-lived, so take advantage of the boom while you can and get out before the bust I am expecting again in May.
© 2018 Jeremy W