Some data seems to indicate we are already in a recession in 2016. What do you think?
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The feds won't raise interest rates unless inflation rises, personal spending increases dramatically from an overheated economy. Interest rates are raised to encourage saving! As of now people are saving and spending less.
Higher rates hurt us.
What about recent indicators that tax revenues are down all around various cities and States...? also, the price of oil is down near $45 per barrel... Remember recession usually shows up months later when they revised the GDP after the fact.
Jack, you are correct. I guess I'm saying is that the definition of recession has changed. And this alludes to what Tamara stated. The metrics are there, but economists have raised the bar.
You make some good points but you are missing the real story. The economy is broken and the stats do not reflect current reality. The stock market is artificially propped up by a near zero interest rate. The unemployment rate is more like 12% - U6.
Jack what I'm saying is the measurements we've always used in the past do not indicate that we are in a recession!
Suddenly we throw out those and come up with different ways of measuring...etc
When (inflation is low) so are interest rates!
Yes, it is time for a new economics model-
Also, interest rate is near zero because of artificial control by the Fed. reserve. Even with low inflation, the interest rate should be higher.
Traditionally the feds only raise interest rates when inflation is high or there is a ton of spending by consumers. Higher interest rates discourage borrowing and encourage saving. If people (spend any less now) we'd fall back into a recession!