U.S. intelligence in Afghanistan, Kunar Province, which borders Pakistan has become worrisome. Its mountainous terrain where few roads exist, the remnants of Osama Bin Laden's al-Qaeda have been growing despite American drone attacks and ground attacks. This refreshed group is led by al-Qaeda's second in command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who is more interested in pure terrorism to overthrow governments, promote Islam extreme views and spread through affiliated groups in Africa, Yemen, within Northwest Pakistan and elsewhere. This 3.0 group is not interested in political views as the former original groups was.
When America exits, the fear is that both Kunar and Bajur provinces will became a new haven for al-Qaeda and something the Afghan army will seek to avoid or unable to. Already, The third generation of al-Qaeda’s success in capitalizing on revolutionary change in the Arab world and is more supported. Although, Zawahiri is a former Egyptian doctor, most of his commanders of the 3.0 version are commanded by radical Saudi followers. Already, training camps in Kunar have been detected and new recruits are constantly found in and along the 50 mile border between Afghanistan and Pakistan and in Bajur, Pakistan, a place the Pakistani army has failed in making secure or free of terrorists.
The main American base now in Kunar is Forward Operating Base Wright, which has been curtailed because of Obama's consolidation and reductions. Most of the other bases were closed in Kunar a year ago. The Fourth Brigade of the US 4th Infantry Division is in general area and also control FOB Joyce.
The Algeria hostage seizure was tied to al-Qaeda, as is the Mali group. While the French may seem to be winning, as soon as they leave, just like the US in Afghanistan, they will return. They seem to have an endless and loyal group of followers.