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Here Comes the 2020 Presidential Election - JOE BIDEN Keeps His Lead, Leaving 25 Other Democrats in the Dust

Updated on June 15, 2019
My Esoteric profile image

ME has spent most of his retirement from service to the United States studying, thinking, and writing about the country he served.

The Man They Want to Beat

Licence:  CC BY 2.0 (, via Wikimedia Commons
Licence: CC BY 2.0 (, via Wikimedia Commons | Source

While I have very little content included yet, I am going to go ahead an publish it so that the Poll can begin.

I can't stand it anymore - I must start predicting if Trump is going to lose. Right now the score is - wait for it -

  • Democrat - 227
  • Trump - 196
  • Toss-up - 108 (AZ, TX, WI, MI, PA, NC)

My going in assumptions are:

  1. That any state who voted for Hillary Clinton would vote for any of the likely Democratic candidates since virtually no candidate has the baggage she had and most campaign better (Sorry Hillary, I do like you, but ...)
  2. That most states who voted for Trump would do so again, even if he murdered someone in cold-blood in broad daylight on 5th Ave in NYC.
  3. That FL and OH will still vote for Trump (but not if he murders someone)
  4. Beto O'Rourke's near win puts Texas in play for almost any Democrat
  5. The D's win in the AZ Senate race along with Mark Kelly running for Senate puts that state in play.

A SAFE prediction is that the Democrats will get a minimum of 197 electoral votes to the Republican's 102.

4/26/19 - This link takes you to a map which shows how Trump has been doing in maintaining support by state. He is down in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, critical states if he wants to win. He is also down in Arizona and Florida.

6/5/19 - I just did my first update of the my presidential map and have Biden (presuming he is the Democratic nominee) up 377 to 161 electoral votes. This is based on the 2016 results and recent polls comparing Joe Biden (who is doing better than any other Democrat at this point in time) and Donald Trump. Flips right now are AZ, TX, IA, FL, MI, NC, PA, and WI

And the Race is On (vote your choice below)

The race for becoming President of the United States in 2020 is on. At this point, there is 700+ days left until election day. There is, as you can see, a whole host of candidates considering (or actually announced) joining the Democratic primary fight. Some are perennial candidates like Robby Wells from Georgia, most are current or former office holders, others are rich activists like Tom Steyer of California, and still others have private careers like boxer Oscar De La Hoya, also of California.

In fact, California is the source of the most candidates of any state (8); New York comes in second with 3. All total there are 19 states and the District of Columbia represented. I suspect as we get a few months into the race, there will be more Gov. Martin O'Malley's who drop out and endorse one of the remaining contenders.

Let the race begin!!

And It Is Time to Make Your Initial Choice

In 2019, who is your choice for the Democratic Presidential Nominee (I'll ask again in 2020)

See results

26 Are Running

Formally Declared Candidates

Expressed Interest

  • Oscar De La Hoya (D-CA) - boxing champion
  • Angelina Jolie (D-CA) - actress
  • Howard Schultz (I-CA) - former Democrat and Starbuck's billionaire CEO
  • Rep Stacy Abrams (D-AL)
  • Mayor Andrew Gillum (D-FL)
  • Sec John Kerry (D-MA) - former Senator and Secretary of State.


What Do the Candidates Want to Do?

The table below is a matrix of issues and where each candidate stands on them. Hopefully this will help determine which candidate you like best.

Thinks different plan is better
Universal Background Check (UBC); Assault Wpn Ban (AWB); High Capacity Mag Ban (HCMB);
Medicare buy-in and private option
On board
UBC, AWB, otherwise left to the State; No Manufacturer liability
Eliminate private insurance
On board
Temporary role for private insurance
On board
UBC; AWB - Promises Executive Action if Congress punts
Eliminate private insurance
Qualified support
Keep private insurance
On board
Keep private insurance
Thinks different plan is better
Keep private insurance
On board
UBC; Licensing; AWB; Mandatory Tng; No Conceal Permits across state lines.
Keep private insurance
Proposed $4 Trillion plan including Carbon Tax
Keep private insurance
Thinks different plan involving the private sector is better
Keep private insurance
Thinks different plan involving the private sector is better
Keep private insurance
On board
Keep private insurance
On board
Eliminate private insurance
Keep private insurance
On board
Keep private insurance
3-tier gun licensing
Keep private insurance

News -

6/11/2019 - Bad news for Trump - Latest national poll has Trump significantly behind Biden (+13) and Sanders (+9). Ahead, but inside the margin of error are Harris (+8); Warren (+7); and Booker and Buttigieg (+5). Good news for Biden as he remains well ahead of the others; +11 in one poll, +18 in another, and +12 in Massachusetts +11.

6/4/19 - North Carolina could switch to the Democrats. Biden is beating Trump by 12 (56 - 44) and Bernie is ahead by 8 (54 - 46). It is important to note that both Biden and Sanders gathered well over 50% of the vote!

6/1/2019 - June starts with Biden still in the lead with 36 followed by Sanders with 17. After them are Harris-8; Buttigieg and Warren-5; Booker-3; Castro, Yang, and Ryan-1; Klobuchar, Gabbard, and Williamson-0. The rest were not rated.

5/26/2019 - Interesting. Of four recent polls comparing Donald Trump with Elizabeth Warren, Trump is ahead in only one - the CNN poll. Both Fox and right-leaning Rasmussen have Warren ahead as does Emerson.

5/23/2019 - CNN just released its May ranking of those most likely to win the Democratic nomination: Biden, Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg, Warren, Klobuchar, O'Rourke, Booker, Bullock, and Yang.

5/20/2019 - Fox News polling has Biden (+11), Sanders (+5), and Warren (+2) beating Trump in a general election. They also have Biden beating Sanders by 18 points and third place Warren by 26.

5/16/2019 - Biden (by 11), Sanders, Warren, and Buttigieg beating Trump in Pennsylvania. Biden up by 26 over Sanders in PA. Next in line in single digits are Warren, Harris, Booker, and Buttigieg.

5/16/2019 - Mayor Bill de Blasio (D-NY) announced that he is joining the race. He makes number 26.

5/14/2019 - Gov Steve Bullock (D-MT) announced that he is joining the race.

5/13/2019 - Polling for South Carolina has Biden (46) up by 31 over Sanders (16); Buttigieg and Warren trail with 8 points.

5/9/2019 - New polling has Biden (36) up by 18 points over Sanders (18) in New Hampshire. The next closest are Buttigieg (9) and Warren (8). Another AZ poll has Biden up by 5 points over Trump, which is inside the margin of error. The rest of the field trailed Trump between 5 and 9 points.

5/3/2019 - A new CNN poll has most of the Democratic candidates beating Trump in a head-to-head match up. Out of the six candidates listed, only Elizabeth Warren is losing to Trump. O'Rourke is up by 10 while Biden and Sanders are ahead by 6 each.

4/30/2019 - With his post-announcement bump, Sen Biden surges to a one point lead over Donald Trump in - wait for it -- TEXAS. Can he keep it?

4/26/2019 - Based on a April 4 Morning Consult poll, Trump's in trouble. Trump has lost a lot of support in Wisconsin and Michigan, and a little support in Pennsylvania. Without those states, Trump can't win. He is also negative in Florida and Arizona. He is not ahead in any state he lost.

4/26/2019 - Latest national poll has Biden beating Trump by 6 points.

4/25/2019 - Vice President Joe Biden finally puts his name in the ring to become America's 46th President

4/25/19 - CNN periodically ranks the races top candidates on their likelihood of winning the nomination. Today's list is: 1. Sanders (formerly second), 2. Biden (formerly first), 3. Harris, 4. Buttigieg (formerly fifth), 5. O'Rourke (formerly fourth), 6. Warren (formerly eighth), 7. Klobuchar (formerly sixth), 8. Booker (formerly seventh), 9. Gillibrand, 10. Castro

4/22/2019 - A surprise announcement - Rep Seth Moulton (D-MA), the youngest candidate so far, announced his bid to win the Democratic nomination for president

4/17/2019 - Former Gov Terry McAulife (D-VA) decides not to run.

4/15/2019 - Former Gov Bill Weld (R-MA) announced he is challenging Donald Trump for the Republican nomination. Weld ran with Gov Gary Johnson (R-NM) on the Libertarian ticket in 2016. Will there be more now that he has broken the ice?

4/8/2019 - Rep Eric Swalwell (D-CA) announced today he is running for president.

4/4/2019 - Rep Tim Ryan (D-OH) announced today he is in the hunt for president.

4/1/2019 - A PPP general election poll has all major Democrats out in front of Trump with Joe Biden pulling away at +13. Next closest is Bernie Sanders at +8

3/31/2019 - An Emerson Nevada poll has only Joe Biden beating Trump in that state 52 - 48. All the other Democrats are losing to Trump by between -2 to -8 points.

3/30/2019 - Pennsylvania, a Blue state who went for Trump in 2016 and whose early Nov 2016 poll had him neck-and-neck with Clinton, is firmly in the Biden-Sanders corner. Each lead Trump by 10 points at the moment.

The latest Quinnipiac poll has Joe Biden ahead by 10. Biden - 29; Sanders - 19; O'Rourke - 12; Harris - 8; Warren and Buttigieg - 4; Booker and Klobuchar - 2; Hickenlooper and Castro - 1

3/28/2019 - Wayne Messam, mayor of Miramar, FL announced today.

3/17/2019 - Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand joined the hunt.

3/13/2019 - Rep. Bete O'Rourke (D-TX) officially announced he running for President.

3/10/2019 - A Michigan Emerson poll has the major Democratic candidates all beating Trump. But, only Joe Biden, at +8, is outside the margin of error.

3/7/2019 - CNN gives a monthly assessment of front-runners. This month it is

  1. Kamala Harris
  2. Joe Biden
  3. Bernie Sanders
  4. Beto O'Rourke
  5. Amy Klobuchar
  6. Cory Booker
  7. Elizabeth Warren
  8. Julian Castro
  9. Kirsten Gillabrand
  10. Jay Inslee

3/4/2019 - Former Attorney General announced he will not run for President while Gov. John Hickenlooper did.

3/2/2019 - Some poll results:

* South Carolina - Trump is clobbering all Democratic candidates save for Joe Biden who is only 4 points behind

* Texas - Trump is ahead, but only barely: Biden, O'Rourke +1; Sanders +2

* New Hampshire - Sanders is ahead of Biden (26 - 22)

* National Democratic - Biden (30); Sanders (19); Harris (10); Booker (5); O'Rourke, Warren (4); Klobuchar, Bloomberg (2); Brown, Gabbard, Castro, Gillibrand (0)

3/1/2019 - Gov. Jay Inslee jumps in officially.

2/19/2019 - Here is a poll generic poll from Morning Consult - Between Democrats, they rank: Biden - 30; Sanders - 21; Harris - 11; Warren - 8; O'Rourke - 7; Booker - 5; Klobuchar - 4; Bloomberg - 2; Brown - 1; Castro - 1; Gabbard - 1.

2/16/2019 - Emerson reported the following: Biden (55 - 45); Sanders (51 - 49); Warren (53 - 47); Harris (52 - 48); O'Rourke (53 - 47); Booker (51 - 49); Klobuchar (51 - 49); Brown (52 - 48). Notice that Trump trails in all of them.

2/14/2019 - Here is a poll generic poll from Morning Consult - Between Democrats, they rank: Biden - 29; Sanders - 22; Harris - 13; Warren - 8; O'Rourke - 7; Booker - 5; Klobuchar - 3; Bloomberg - 2; Brown - 2; Castro - 1; Gabbard - 1.

2/10/2019 - Sen. Amy Klobuchar announces her formal run for president.

2/9/2019 - Sen. Elizabeth Warren announces she will run for president.

2/4/2019 - Here is a poll generic poll from Monmouth University - Between Democrats, they rank: Biden - 29; Sanders - 16; Harris - 11; Warren - 8; O'Rourke - 7; Booker - 4; Bloomberg - 4; Klobuchar - 2; Brown - 1; Castro - 1; Gillibrand - 1; Gabbard - 1.

2/3/2019 - New, early Iowa polls are in which puts a different flavor on things. Between Democrats, they rank: Biden - 29; Harris - 18; Sanders - 15; Warren - 11; O'Rourke - 6; Booker - 4; Brown (D-OH) - 4; Klobuchar - 3; Castro - 2; Gillibrand - 1.

On the them vs. Trump front it comes down as: Biden (51 - 49); Sanders (49 - 50); Warren (48 - 52); Harris & O'Rourke (47 - 53); Gillibrand (46 - 54); Brown (46 - 55)

2/1/2019 - Sen Cory Booker formally declared he is running for President

1/31/2019 - The following Senators who have announced or are interested in running for President sadly (IMO) voted against an amendment not to precipitously pull our troops out of Syria as Donald Trump announced: Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Jeff Merkley, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren.

1/30/2019 - A new poll puts the leading candidates thusly: Biden (32), Sanders (15), Harris (10), O'Rourke (6), Warren (6), Booker (3), Bloomburg (2), Castro (1), Brown (1), Gillibrand (1), Gabbard (D-HI) (0)

Also, there is this: A Detroit News report has Biden (53-40), Sanders (52-41), Harris (47-42), and Warren (46-43) ahead of Trump.

1/27/2019 - Howard Schultz (I-CA) - former Democrat, billionaire, and former CEO of Starbucks tossed his hat in the ring because he thinks Democrats are moving too far left.

1/27/2019 - With the addition of Kamala Harris (D-CA) to the field of announced candidates the Democrats running for president is the most diverse in history. We now have:

  • 4 women
  • 1 Asian
  • 1 Hispanic
  • 1 married gay
  • 1 black
  • 1 Indian (not Native American) (Harris is a black, Indian, female)

1/24/2019 - Pete Buttigieg (D-IN), 37 and mayor of South Bend, IN formed committee to formally explore presidential run.

1/23/2019 - A new Public Policy poll keeps VP Joe Biden in the lead over Trump 53-41; Sanders 51-41; Harris 48-41; Warren 48-42; Gillibrand and Booker 47-42. Yes I know it is way early, but it is still way fun.

1/21/2019 - Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) announced she is running for president

1/18/2019 - Sen Bob Casey (D-PA) announced he is no longer considering running for president.

1/17/2019 - CNN ranks the top ten on this day as 1) Kamala Harris, 2) Beto O'Rourke (D-TX), 3) Joe Biden (D-DE), 4) Elizabeth Warren (D-MA, 5), Cory Booker (D-NJ), 6) Sherrod Brown (D-OH), 7) Bernie Sanders (I-VT), 8) Kirsten Gillibrand (D-MI), 9) Amy Klobuchar (D-NY), 10) Julian Castro (D-TX)

1/15/2019 - Sen Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) announced on Colbert that she has formed an exploratory committee.

1/9/2019 - A Public Policy poll in North Carolina have Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders leading Trump, Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris are tied, and Beto O'Rourke and Cory Booker are trailing.

1/9/2019 - Tom Steyer, activist and billionaire, announced he is not going to run.

1/7/2019 - Sens. Cory Booker, Kamala Harris and Kirsten Gillibrand are interviewing potential aides and lining up campaign headquarters.

1/3/2019 - Sen Barbara Feinstein endorses former VP Joe Biden

1/3/2019 - Former Gov Martin O'Malley drops out and endorses former representative Beto o'Rourke

© 2019 Scott Belford


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    • bradmasterOCcal profile image


      3 months ago


      Still not a comment on the article?

      Still a personal attack by you?

      There was one thought in my comment to Scott, it was the poll, and the previous one to that was about the 13 D running for the presidency.

      I am not interested in mere responses, and yours here was unsolicited, but in hearing arguments that try to make some point.

    • Valeant profile image


      3 months ago from Syracuse, NY

      Just trying to give you some constructive criticism that if you confine your comments to less than nineteen different thoughts at a time, they might get more responses. You always get all defensive about why no one responds to many of your posts. That is why, they are a jumbled mess.

    • bradmasterOCcal profile image


      3 months ago


      You make Scott's lack of comments look admirable. You keep on with this rambling, but you don't have anything to reference, you don't make any comments or show how your flippant statements have any bearing to the article or to my comments.

      You are the anti Trumper.

      My comment was about the article, not Scott.

      My comment asked pertinent relevant questions about the polls.

      Scott knows that these questions are important to the accuracy of any poll.

      What did you do here, made another one of your pithy personal attacks on me, You didn't comment on the article, you didn't comment on the statement of my comment. you only made it personal. And if Scott was going to delete any statements, I would hope that it would be one where someone is just making a personal attack, not contributing to the article, and totally ignores the article.

      Have a nice day:)

    • Valeant profile image


      3 months ago from Syracuse, NY

      Be thankful he doesn't just delete them like I do. Your comments are a rambling mess.

    • bradmasterOCcal profile image


      3 months ago

      3/2/2019 - Some poll results:

      Why don't you identify these polls, what were the demographics, how many questions and what were the questions, how were the people polled. Were the people voters?

      These polls without that information are not accurate, but they can sway the weak voters, and most voters that are loyal are weak.

      Who is Major Eric Garcetti (CA)


      No comment on my previous comment.


    • My Esoteric profile imageAUTHOR

      Scott Belford 

      3 months ago from Keystone Heights, FL

      JOC, While I, as an Independent, supported Clinton as well, I had given consideration to Kasich.

    • Valeant profile image


      3 months ago from Syracuse, NY

      I like the idea of a governor elevating to president. It's why I might have voted for Kasich over Clinton, even as a liberal Democrat.

    • bradmasterOCcal profile image


      3 months ago

      If Steve Bullock decides to stand up to President Trump and establishes himself as a true leader, in word as well as in deed, then and only then will he be a contender for the Democratic nomination. Those of us who oppose President Trump currently have no leader.

    • bradmasterOCcal profile image


      3 months ago


      "13 Are Running

      Formally Declared Candidates

      Rep John Delaney (D-MD) - Declared 7/28/2017 (yes, 2017)

      B: Don't know anything about him.

      Michael E. Arth (D-FL) - Urban Designer, Declared 11/4/2018

      B: Another unknown. And you complain about Trump!

      Ken Nwadike Jr. (D-CA) - Filmmaker, Declared 10/18/2017

      B: I live in CA and don't know him, and again another Trump like.

      Robby Wells (I-GA) - Football coach, Declared 5/12/2018

      B: So far quite the Trump like celebrities and non political candidates.

      Andrew Yang (D-NY) - Entrepreneur, Declared 1/6/2017

      B: The list of unknown non politicians, at least Trump had a name and recognition.

      Sec Julian Castro (D-TX) - Declared 1/12/2019

      B: Maybe they heard of him in Texas.

      Sen Kamala Harris (D-CA) - Declared 1/27/2019

      B: She is following in Ca governor Jerry Browns goals. They both were very bad AGs. And you can't get more liberal and more unaccomplished then these two. She was an embarrassment at the SCOTUS hearing. She used it to bolster her candidacy for president.

      Rep Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) - Declared around 1/18/2019

      B: The Nancy Pelosi of Hawaii, the state that doesn't have a real emergency system.

      Sen Cory Booker (D-NJ) - Declared 2/1/2019

      B: Another pathetic choice like Harris, as he also misused the SCOTUS hearing for his personal use to gain attention.

      Sen Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) - Formed committee 12/31/2018, declared 2/9/2019

      B: Really, Warren and Biden for president.

      Sen Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) - Declared 2/10/2019

      B: who is she?

      Sen Bernie Sanders (D-VT) - Declared 2/19/2019

      B: Spineless socialist that couldn't fight to get to the democrat primary, then how is he going to fight for America and Americans?

      Formally Looking

      Rep Marianne Williamson (D-CA) - Formed committee 11/15/2018

      B: Another unknown!

      Sen Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) - Formed committee 1/15/2019

      B: What is her accomplishments?

      Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) - Formed committee 1/24/2019

      B: Who?

      Expressed Interest

      VP Joe Biden (D-DE)

      B: He was the Obama Whitehouse dog. Obama kept this OLD dog from yapping and making stupid remarks in press conferences. His 8 years as VP was not something that he can use to claim any accomplishments. He will be the Obama water carrier for the debates. Do you think he could even have beaten Hillary in the primary?


      Mayor Michael Bloomberg (D-NY) (was an Independent)

      B: We want him to run the nation like he ran NYC. Focusing on Big Gulps.


      Sen Sherrod Brown (D-OH)

      B: Never heard of him!


      Oscar De La Hoya (D-CA) - boxing champion

      B: And you balk about Trump.


      Gov John Hickenlooper (D-CO)

      B: Another one I never heard about.


      AG Eric Holder (D-DC)

      B: Seriously what did Holder ever accomplish as AG? But then again, what has any democrat in recent times ever accomplished?


      Gov Jay Inslee (D-WA)

      B: who?

      Angelina Jolie (D-CA) - actress

      B: And this is from the party that disrespected Trump!

      Gov Terry McAuliffe (D-VA)

      B: Who?

      Sen Jeff Merkley (D-OR)

      B: Who?

      Rep Beto O'Rourke (D-TX)

      B: Who?

      Rep Tim Ryan (D-OH)

      B: Who?

      Rep Eric Swalwell (D-CA)

      B: Who?

      Howard Schultz (I-CA) - former Democrat and Starbuck's billionaire CEO"

      B: Another billionaire but this is OK because? he is a democrat!

      As for Colin Powell

      He achieved a lot for himself but his accomplishments for the US and its people are flawed.

      "While Powell was wary of a military solution, he supported the decision to invade Iraq after the Bush administration concluded that diplomatic efforts had failed. After his departure from the State Department, Powell repeatedly emphasized his continued support for American involvement in the Iraq War.

      At the 2007 Aspen Ideas Festival in Colorado, Powell revealed that he had spent two and a half hours explaining to President Bush "the consequences of going into an Arab country and becoming the occupiers." During this discussion, he insisted that the U.S. appeal to the United Nations first, but if diplomacy failed, he would support the invasion: "I also had to say to him that you are the President, you will have to make the ultimate judgment, and if the judgment is this isn't working and we don't think it is going to solve the problem, then if military action is undertaken I'm with you, I support you."

      Colin Powell went up the ranks from 2nd Lieutenant in 1958 to the top as general and beyond that, but his agreement to go to war with Iraq was wrong. As a country we have been at war for more than 100 years, and we have lost all of them, depending on your definition of winning. It should have been clear to anyone, especially someone of Powell's military training and experience that Iraq and even Afghanistan were bad decisions.

      There was no need to go to War with Iraq, the justification because of Saddam Hussein was not valid, if it were we would have to have done the same to Iran and N Korea. This alone should disqualify him for the presidency. The terrorists that successfully attacked the US on 911 weren't representing any country. And if you use the justification that they were harboring terrorists, then you also have to invade several countries including Pakistan. We didn't do that so it means that these were not valid justifications.

      The list of democrat wannabe presidents is an indication why the democrats are the worst party ever for the US. Neither party has accomplished much for the country and the people, but the democrats have done more damage than the republicans. I wouldn't want to live on the difference but the democrats are worse.

      For example, the democrats and their loyal voters want Trump to throw down on Putin and create another cold war with Russia as we had with USSR. Then they want it to be a warm war with the goal of actually going to War with Russia.

    • My Esoteric profile imageAUTHOR

      Scott Belford 

      5 months ago from Keystone Heights, FL

      Thanks Shyron. Those are the people who have at least expressed interest and I certainly agree that any of them would be better than our so-called president.

      Personally, I wish Collin Powell were on the list.

    • Shyron E Shenko profile image

      Shyron E Shenko 

      5 months ago from Texas

      I cannot believe the people you have listed here are all running any one of which would be better than the crazy we have right now. This is awesome.

      Blessings my friend

    • Jay C OBrien profile image

      Jay C OBrien 

      5 months ago from Houston, TX USA

      OK, here is an oddball idea: Eliminate Elections and campaigning and PAC funds and Bribery.

      Replace elections with Civil Service tests. Anyone who cheats or takes bribes is prosecuted. Top universities will make and grade the tests.

      What do you think?

    • jo miller profile image

      Jo Miller 

      5 months ago from Tennessee

      I would add Steve Bullock to your list of possible candidates. My initial impression of him is very positive. He's my personal favorite so far, but there are many very talented individuals in this list.


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