The 2020 Presidential Election - JOE BIDEN Shares Lead with ELIZABETH WARREN Going Into Next Debate.
The Man They Want to Beat
While I have very little content included yet, I am going to go ahead an publish it so that the Poll can begin.
I can't stand it anymore - I must start predicting if Trump is going to lose. Right now the score is - wait for it -
- Democrat - 227
- Trump - 196
- Toss-up - 108 (AZ, TX, WI, MI, PA, NC)
My going in assumptions are:
- That any state who voted for Hillary Clinton would vote for any of the likely Democratic candidates since virtually no candidate has the baggage she had and most campaign better (Sorry Hillary, I do like you, but ...)
- That most states who voted for Trump would do so again, even if he murdered someone in cold-blood in broad daylight on 5th Ave in NYC.
- That FL and OH will still vote for Trump (but not if he murders someone)
- Beto O'Rourke's near win puts Texas in play for almost any Democrat
- The D's win in the AZ Senate race along with Mark Kelly running for Senate puts that state in play.
A SAFE prediction is that the Democrats will get a minimum of 197 electoral votes to the Republican's 102.
4/26/19 - This link takes you to a map which shows how Trump has been doing in maintaining support by state. He is down in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, critical states if he wants to win. He is also down in Arizona and Florida.
6/5/19 - I just did my first update of the my presidential map and have Biden (presuming he is the Democratic nominee) up 377 to 161 electoral votes. This is based on the 2016 results and recent polls comparing Joe Biden (who is doing better than any other Democrat at this point in time) and Donald Trump. Flips right now are AZ, TX, IA, FL, MI, NC, PA, and WI
7/25/19 - You might find this interesting. Based on Trump's favorability by state at certain points in history, here is how the 2020 election would turn out.
10/6/19 - Democrat - 381; Trump - 156 (surprises are AZ, OH, IA, FL, NE, UT, MT)
9/10/19 - Democrat - 356; Trump - 179 (surprises are AZ, OH, IA, GA)
7/2019 - Democrat - 375; Trump - 160 (surprises are AK, AZ, OH, IA, FL)
6/2019 - Democrat - 372; Trump - 163 (surprises are AZ, OH, IA, FL)
1/2019 - Democrat - 372; Trump - 163
1/2018 - Democrat - 330; Trump - 208
7/2017 - Democrat - 331; Trump - 207
1/2017 - Democrat - 89; Trump - 449
And the Race is On (vote your choice below)
The race for becoming President of the United States in 2020 is on. At this point, there is 700+ days left until election day. There is, as you can see, a whole host of candidates considering (or actually announced) joining the Democratic primary fight. Some are perennial candidates like Robby Wells from Georgia, most are current or former office holders, others are rich activists like Tom Steyer of California, and still others have private careers like boxer Oscar De La Hoya, also of California.
In fact, California is the source of the most candidates of any state (8); New York comes in second with 3. All total there are 19 states and the District of Columbia represented. I suspect as we get a few months into the race, there will be more Gov. Martin O'Malley's who drop out and endorse one of the remaining contenders.
Let the race begin!!
And It Is Time to Make Your Initial Choice
In 2019, who is your choice for the Democratic Presidential Nominee (I'll ask again in 2020)
22 Are Running - 7 Dropped Out
Formally Declared Candidates
- Rep John Delaney (D-MD) - Declared 7/28/2017 (yes, 2017)
- Michael E. Arth (D-FL) - Urban Designer, Declared 11/4/2018
- Ken Nwadike Jr. (D-CA) - Filmmaker, Declared 10/18/2017
- Robby Wells (I-GA) - Football coach, Declared 5/12/2018
- Andrew Yang (D-NY) - Entrepreneur, Declared 1/6/2017
- Sec Julian Castro (D-TX) - Declared 1/12/2019
- Sen Kamala Harris (D-CA) - Declared 1/27/2019
- Rep Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) - Declared around 1/18/2019
- Rep Marianne Williamson (D-CA) - Formed committee 11/15/2018; announced 1/28/2019.
- Sen Cory Booker (D-NJ) - Declared 2/1/2019
- Sen Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) - Formed com
- mittee 12/31/2018, declared 2/9/2019
- Sen Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) - Declared 2/10/2019
- Sen Bernie Sanders (D-VT) - Declared 2/19/2019
- Rep Beto O'Rourke (D-TX) - Declared 3/13/2019
- Mayor Wayne Messam (D-FL) - Declared 3/28/2019
- Rep Tim Ryan (D-OH) - Declared 4/4/2019
- Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) - Formed committee 1/24/2019. Declared 4/14/2019
- VP Joe Biden (D-DE) - Declared 4/25/2019
- Sen Michael Bennett (D-CO) - Declared 5/2/2019
- Gov Steve Bullock (D-MT) - Declared 5/14/2019
- Rep Joe Sestak (D-PA) - Declared 6/24/2019
- Tom Steyer (D-CA) - Billionaire businessman; Announced 7/9/2019
- Angelina Jolie (D-CA) - actress - still considering as of April 2019
- State Sen Maj (Ret) Richard Ojeda (D-WV) - Declared 11/11/2018
- Mayor Eric Garcetti (D-CA)
- Sen Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA)
- AG Eric Holder (D-DC)
- Mayor Michael Bloomberg (D-NY) (was an Independent)
- Sen Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
- Sen Jeff Merkley (D-OR)
- Gov Terry McAuliffe (D-VA)
- Oscar De La Hoya (D-CA) - boxing champion (silent since Oct 2018)
- Mayor Andrew Gillum (D-FL)
- Sec John Kerry (D-MA) - former Senator and Secretary of State.
- Rep Eric Swalwell (D-CA) - Declared 4/8/2019; Dropped Out 7/8/2019
- Rep Stacy Abrams (D-AL) - Still thinking about it as of May 2019; Stopped in Aug 2019
- Gov John Hickenlooper (D-CO) - Declared 3/4/2019; Dropped Out 8/15/2019
- Gov Jay Inslee (D-WA) - Declared 3/1/2019; Dropped Out 8/22/2019
- Rep Seth Moulton (D-MA) - Declared 4/22/2019; Dropped Out 8/23/2019
- Sen Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) - Formed committee 1/15/2019; Declared 3/17/2019; Dropped Out 8/28/2019
- Howard Schultz (I-CA) - former Democrat and Starbuck's billionaire CEO - Still considering as of May 2019; Gave up 9/7/2019
- Mayor Bill de Blasio (D-NY) - Declared 5/16/2019; Departs 9/20/2019
What Do the Candidates Want to Do?
The table below is a matrix of issues and where each candidate stands on them. Hopefully this will help determine which candidate you like best.
GREEN NEW DEAL
MEDICARE FOR ALL
VP JOE BIDEN
Does not support. Offered alternative to get to zero net emissions by 2050; reenter Paris Accord
Universal Background Check (UBC); Assault Wpn Ban (AWB); High Capacity Mag Ban (HCMB);
Medicare buy-in and private option
As VP, proposed free tuition for 2 and 4-year public colleges and 4-year public colleges. Not implemented but led to many states Promise program
Supports $15 and increase top rate back to 39.5% on wealthy
SEN BERNIE SANDERS
UBC, AWB, otherwise left to the State; No Manufacturer liability
Eliminate private insurance
Introduced College For All Act (2017) to give free tuition for people earning less than $125,000
SEN ELIZABETH WARREN
UBC, AWB, HCMB,
Temporary role for private insurance
Free tuition to 2 and 4-year public colleges. Forgive $50,000 of student debt for earners under $250,000
SEN KAMALA HARRIS
UBC; AWB - Promises Executive Action if Congress punts
Eliminate private insurance
Co-sponsored Debt-Free College Act
SEN AMY KLOBUCHAR
Sees GND as aspirational; will quickly reverse all of Trump's EOs;
UBC, AWB, HCMB; close the "boyfriend" loophole
Keep private insurance, add public option to ACA
Expand financial aid and make community college free, but not public colleges.
Raise corporate tax to 25%; return top marginal rate to 39.6%; supports Paycheck Fairness Act; opposes the new NAFTA
MAYOR PETE BUTTIGIEG
Keep private insurance
Free for Low Income
REP BETO O'ROURKE
Thinks different plan is better
Keep private insurance
Supports debt-free college
SEN CORY BOOKER
On board; reenter Paris Accord; ban fracking and fossil fuel exports; supports carbon tax
UBC; Licensing; AWB; Mandatory Tng; No Conceal Permits across state lines.
Supports Medicare For All but wants to keep private insurance
Raise teachers pay; proposes a "baby bond"; establish a path to debt-free college; tuition-free Jr. College and vocational schools
Supports $15; expand EITC; oppose free-trade agreements; help Unions
REP JOHN DELANEY
Proposed $4 Trillion plan including Carbon Tax
Keep private insurance
SEC JULIAN CASTRO
Supports GND goals
UBC, AWB, HCMB, Red Flag Laws
Supports Medicare for All but keep private insurance
Supports universal pre-K; free-tuition for public college and vocational schools; Federal investment into teachers and school infrastructure
Increase top marginal rate; Need a "21st Century Safety Net" to protect against automation and the "gig" encomomy; Opposes TPP
On board with GND and then some. Net zero emissions by 2030; no gas car sales by 2035; no gas cars by 2050; does not support nuclear
AWB, UBC, HCMB, Child Safety Locks
Build on ACA with public option
Supports universal pre-K; expand curriculum to include meditation and anti-bullying; free-tuition for some; loan forgiveness and lower interest rates
Wants $1,000/mo for all working age Americans: Universal savings program from birth; add fee to financial transactions and roll-back tax cuts to rich and corporations
REP TULSI GABBARD
End fossil fuel subsidies; prohibit export of domestically produced fossil fuels. Did not sign on to GND
Keep private insurance as well as Medicare for All
Supports College for All using a Wall Street tax
Opposes TPP.; supports overhauling tax system; supports $15/hr minimum wage
Supports the Vision of the GND. Feds to pay to move people to higher ground. Bring back Obama regulations, use Carbon Tax and put a fee on nations that don't do the same.
3-tier gun licensing and establish a national gun buy-back program
Keep private insurance. . Gov't manufacture of generic drugs and set prices for medical services
Opposes free-tuition for 4-yr college but does support making community colleges nearly free. Invest in vocational schools. Lower student debt interest rates
Wants a $1,000 "Freedom Dividend" per month for every American 18 years or older to be paid for by a value-added tax
SEN MICHAEL BENNETT
Does not support' has 5-part plan instead.including net-zero emissions by 2050
Keep private insurance and add a public option to ACA
No position but wants to raise teachers pay
Doesn't support. Want's $12/hr and expanded EITC instead
GOV STEVE BULLOCK
Thinks GND is a good deal but can be better; Rejoin the Paris Accord; Thinks net zero by 2050 is possible; carbon tax is possible; doesn't want to ban fracking
UBC, AWB, HCMB, Red Flag laws, Minimum age to purchase
Keep private insurance and add a public option to ACA; Negotiate drug prices.
Supports path to 2-year college or vocational school or apprenticeships
Supports $15/hr; Will end Trade War
1015/2019 - Going into the October debate, Warren has caught up to Biden in several polls, especially the two early state polls, Iowa and New Hampshire. Biden is still far ahead in South Carolina. The most recent D-to-Trump polls have Biden, Warren, Sanders, and finally Buttigieg, and Harris handily beating Trump; Biden by 12 points and the top end and Harris by 6 points on the lower end. (Who do you support in the poll above?)
10/10/2019 - Time has passed, Trump is on the attack, but Biden's standing hasn't changed - he is ahead in a Fox poll by 10 points over Warren (32 - 22). Sanders is sliding at 17. Next in line is Harris at 5 and Buttigieg at 4. Fox has all three, Biden, Warren, and Sanders are still beating Trump nationally badly.
9/29/2019 - Joe Biden is running away with South Carolina but tied or slightly behind in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.
9/23/2019 - It has just become harder for Democratic candidates to qualify for the November debates. Expect more to quit in late October.
9/20/2019 - Mayor Bill de Blasio (D-NY) who declared on 5/16/2019 calls it quits today.
9/19/2019 - Fox News is going to get an ear full from Trump again over their polling. Their latest poll shows Biden (+14), Warren (+6), and Sanders (+8) comfortably ahead of Trump in head-to-head national match-ups. They even have Harris ahead, but only by 2 points. Fox also has Biden up 11 over his nearest rival, Sanders.
9/16/2019 - The first poll after the third Democratic debate puts Joe Biden further ahead. Biden, at 32, is 12 points ahead of Sanders 20. Warren is 3rd at 18. The third tier is Harris, Buttigieg, O'Rourke, and Booker at 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, respectively. I was happy to see Klobuchar gain 1, coming in at 2 with the rest at 1 or 0.
9/8/2019 - GOP: Three men have announced a run against Donald Trump: Gov Bill Weld (R-MA), Rep Joe Walsh (R-IL), and Gov Rick Sanford (R-SC). Interestingly, to prevent embarrassing Trump, four state GOPs, so far, have or are thinking about cancelling their primaries (SC, AZ, NV, and KS)
9/4/2019 - CNN still ranks Joe Biden #1 in its list. Following him are Warren, Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg, Booker, O'Rourke, Klobuchar, Yang, Castro. Only Biden and Sanders are beating Trump in Wisconsin.
- Quinnipiac has Biden beating Warren by 13;
- USA/Suffolk has Biden up by 18 over Sanders;
- Economist/YouTube online poll has Biden beating Warren by 4;
- Quinnipiac has all major Democrats beating Trump, with Biden ahead by 16;
- EPIC-MRA has Biden ahead in Michigan by 10 with other major Democrats also ahead
8/31/2019 - An interesting read about Trump's prospects. It seems any Democrat could beat him today - https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/31/politics/trump-democrat-matchups-analysis/index.html
8/28/2019 - Sen. Christine Gillibrand dropped out today.
8/27/2019 - But today's Politico/Morning Consult poll puts Biden back in the lead: Biden 33, Sanders 20, Warren 15.
8/26/2019 - Two new polls just out were not nice to Biden. The Monmouth poll has Sanders and Warren at 20 points and Biden is at 19. The Economist/YouGov poll puts Biden at 22, Sanders at 19, and Warren at 18.
8/23/2019 - Joe Biden is the only Democrat leading Trump in Arizona by 2.
8/20/2019 - Democrats are killing Trump in Colorado - Biden, Sanders. Buttigieg are +10. Biden beating Trump in Nevada as well by +6. Biden maintains double digit lead over rivals overall, but Sanders is beating Biden (barely) in Colorado. Harris is fading fast. Julian Castro qualifies for the next debate.
8/15/2019 - Fox News is Joe Biden's (and the Democrats in general) best friend. In today's release, it has Biden well ahead of the pack with 31 points, 11 points ahead of his next closest rival, Elizabeth Warren. Further, Fox has Biden clobbering Trump 50 to 38, but also has Warren, Harris, and Sanders beating Trump by more than the margin of error.
8/9/2019 - Joe Biden maintains his lead over Trump in NC by 8 points. Bernie Sanders joins him with +4. Biden also leads the field in Iowa by 9 points over Warren's 14. Klobuchar and Steyer both received 3 points in that poll; Klobuchar qualifies for the next debate.
7/26/2019 - It is a week out from the 2nd set of Democratic debates. Biden is beating Trump in Ohio by 8 points; the rest of the candidates are behind Trump. Fox News has Biden with an 18 lead over the next closest rival Sanders. Following him are Warren and Harris. Monmouth puts Biden 27 points ahead of Harris in South Carolina. Third is Sanders and fourth is Warren.
7/15/2019 - Biden (35) still way ahead in South Carolina by 21. Only two others in contention: Sander at 14 and Harris at 12.
7/9/2019 - Guess what, almost two weeks after the first debate and nothing much has changed. Biden is still well ahead at (averaging two recent polls) 30.5; Sanders is next at 17; Harris has moved up nicely at 14.5 (from 7) with Warren just behind at 14. The next tier begins with Buttigieg at 5.5 and O'Rourke at 3.5. Bringing up the rear are Booker and Yang at 2, with Gabbard, Castro, Inslee, Klobuchar, Bennett, and Bullock between .5 and 1.5.
7/8/2019 - Rep. Erick Swalwell (D-CA) leaves the race.
7/7/2019 - Several days have passed now since the first CNN debates. The latest Washington Post/ABC has Joe Biden still 10 points ahead of Donald Trump; much better than any other candidate. That must give Trump a warm and fuzzy that Biden is doing so well even after taking a hit from Harris.
7/1/2019 - The first of couple polls after the first Democratic debates shows what might be expected - no change except for Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.
Her average before the Politico/Morning Consult poll was 7.0; it is now (averaging the CNN and Hill polls together) 14.
On the other hand, Biden fell from 32 to 27.5. There was very little change in any of the others.
(It might be worth noting that Booker, Klobuchar, Yang, Gabbard, Castro, Ryan, Bullock and Gillibrand improved marginally)
6/27/2019 - Here is the polling baseline from RealClearPolitics just prior to the Democratic debates: Biden 32; Sanders 16.9; Warren 12.8; Harris 7.0; Buttigeig 6.6; O'Rourke 3.3; Booker 2.3; Yang 1.3; Klobuchar 0.9; Gabbard 0.8; Castro 0.8; Ryan 0.6; Bullock 0.5; Gillibrand 0.5
6/25/2019 - Even with his stumbles, Joe Biden still leads the pack. In one poll, however, Bernie Sanders nearly caught up; in another, not so much. An Emerson poll has Biden at 34, Sander 27, Warren 14. In a Politico poll Biden was 38, Sanders 19, Warren 13. Of course Biden is clobbering Trump in national polls at +10 (and so was Sanders)
6/17/2019 - Biden is still way ahead of the next runner-ups in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He is reasonably ahead in Texas and Iowa. He is beating the crap out of Trump in the latest Fox poll. (I guess Trump has to start calling Fox a Fake Poll.)
6/11/2019 - Bad news for Trump - Latest national poll has Trump significantly behind Biden (+13) and Sanders (+9). Ahead, but inside the margin of error are Harris (+8); Warren (+7); and Booker and Buttigieg (+5). Good news for Biden as he remains well ahead of the others; +11 in one poll, +18 in another, and +12 in Massachusetts +11.
6/4/19 - North Carolina could switch to the Democrats. Biden is beating Trump by 12 (56 - 44) and Bernie is ahead by 8 (54 - 46). It is important to note that both Biden and Sanders gathered well over 50% of the vote!
6/1/2019 - June starts with Biden still in the lead with 36 followed by Sanders with 17. After them are Harris-8; Buttigieg and Warren-5; Booker-3; Castro, Yang, and Ryan-1; Klobuchar, Gabbard, and Williamson-0. The rest were not rated.
5/26/2019 - Interesting. Of four recent polls comparing Donald Trump with Elizabeth Warren, Trump is ahead in only one - the CNN poll. Both Fox and right-leaning Rasmussen have Warren ahead as does Emerson.
5/23/2019 - CNN just released its May ranking of those most likely to win the Democratic nomination: Biden, Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg, Warren, Klobuchar, O'Rourke, Booker, Bullock, and Yang.
5/20/2019 - Fox News polling has Biden (+11), Sanders (+5), and Warren (+2) beating Trump in a general election. They also have Biden beating Sanders by 18 points and third place Warren by 26.
5/16/2019 - Biden (by 11), Sanders, Warren, and Buttigieg beating Trump in Pennsylvania. Biden up by 26 over Sanders in PA. Next in line in single digits are Warren, Harris, Booker, and Buttigieg.
5/16/2019 - Mayor Bill de Blasio (D-NY) announced that he is joining the race. He makes number 26.
5/14/2019 - Gov Steve Bullock (D-MT) announced that he is joining the race.
5/13/2019 - Polling for South Carolina has Biden (46) up by 31 over Sanders (16); Buttigieg and Warren trail with 8 points.
5/9/2019 - New polling has Biden (36) up by 18 points over Sanders (18) in New Hampshire. The next closest are Buttigieg (9) and Warren (8). Another AZ poll has Biden up by 5 points over Trump, which is inside the margin of error. The rest of the field trailed Trump between 5 and 9 points.
5/3/2019 - A new CNN poll has most of the Democratic candidates beating Trump in a head-to-head match up. Out of the six candidates listed, only Elizabeth Warren is losing to Trump. O'Rourke is up by 10 while Biden and Sanders are ahead by 6 each.
4/30/2019 - With his post-announcement bump, Sen Biden surges to a one point lead over Donald Trump in - wait for it -- TEXAS. Can he keep it?
4/26/2019 - Based on a April 4 Morning Consult poll, Trump's in trouble. Trump has lost a lot of support in Wisconsin and Michigan, and a little support in Pennsylvania. Without those states, Trump can't win. He is also negative in Florida and Arizona. He is not ahead in any state he lost.
4/26/2019 - Latest national poll has Biden beating Trump by 6 points.
4/25/2019 - Vice President Joe Biden finally puts his name in the ring to become America's 46th President
4/25/19 - CNN periodically ranks the races top candidates on their likelihood of winning the nomination. Today's list is: 1. Sanders (formerly second), 2. Biden (formerly first), 3. Harris, 4. Buttigieg (formerly fifth), 5. O'Rourke (formerly fourth), 6. Warren (formerly eighth), 7. Klobuchar (formerly sixth), 8. Booker (formerly seventh), 9. Gillibrand, 10. Castro
4/22/2019 - A surprise announcement - Rep Seth Moulton (D-MA), the youngest candidate so far, announced his bid to win the Democratic nomination for president
4/17/2019 - Former Gov Terry McAulife (D-VA) decides not to run.
4/15/2019 - Former Gov Bill Weld (R-MA) announced he is challenging Donald Trump for the Republican nomination. Weld ran with Gov Gary Johnson (R-NM) on the Libertarian ticket in 2016. Will there be more now that he has broken the ice?
4/8/2019 - Rep Eric Swalwell (D-CA) announced today he is running for president.
4/4/2019 - Rep Tim Ryan (D-OH) announced today he is in the hunt for president.
4/1/2019 - A PPP general election poll has all major Democrats out in front of Trump with Joe Biden pulling away at +13. Next closest is Bernie Sanders at +8
3/31/2019 - An Emerson Nevada poll has only Joe Biden beating Trump in that state 52 - 48. All the other Democrats are losing to Trump by between -2 to -8 points.
3/30/2019 - Pennsylvania, a Blue state who went for Trump in 2016 and whose early Nov 2016 poll had him neck-and-neck with Clinton, is firmly in the Biden-Sanders corner. Each lead Trump by 10 points at the moment.
The latest Quinnipiac poll has Joe Biden ahead by 10. Biden - 29; Sanders - 19; O'Rourke - 12; Harris - 8; Warren and Buttigieg - 4; Booker and Klobuchar - 2; Hickenlooper and Castro - 1
3/28/2019 - Wayne Messam, mayor of Miramar, FL announced today.
3/17/2019 - Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand joined the hunt.
3/13/2019 - Rep. Bete O'Rourke (D-TX) officially announced he running for President.
3/10/2019 - A Michigan Emerson poll has the major Democratic candidates all beating Trump. But, only Joe Biden, at +8, is outside the margin of error.
3/7/2019 - CNN gives a monthly assessment of front-runners. This month it is
- Kamala Harris
- Joe Biden
- Bernie Sanders
- Beto O'Rourke
- Amy Klobuchar
- Cory Booker
- Elizabeth Warren
- Julian Castro
- Kirsten Gillabrand
- Jay Inslee
3/4/2019 - Former Attorney General announced he will not run for President while Gov. John Hickenlooper did.
3/2/2019 - Some poll results:
* South Carolina - Trump is clobbering all Democratic candidates save for Joe Biden who is only 4 points behind
* Texas - Trump is ahead, but only barely: Biden, O'Rourke +1; Sanders +2
* New Hampshire - Sanders is ahead of Biden (26 - 22)
* National Democratic - Biden (30); Sanders (19); Harris (10); Booker (5); O'Rourke, Warren (4); Klobuchar, Bloomberg (2); Brown, Gabbard, Castro, Gillibrand (0)
3/1/2019 - Gov. Jay Inslee jumps in officially.
2/19/2019 - Here is a poll generic poll from Morning Consult - Between Democrats, they rank: Biden - 30; Sanders - 21; Harris - 11; Warren - 8; O'Rourke - 7; Booker - 5; Klobuchar - 4; Bloomberg - 2; Brown - 1; Castro - 1; Gabbard - 1.
2/16/2019 - Emerson reported the following: Biden (55 - 45); Sanders (51 - 49); Warren (53 - 47); Harris (52 - 48); O'Rourke (53 - 47); Booker (51 - 49); Klobuchar (51 - 49); Brown (52 - 48). Notice that Trump trails in all of them.
2/14/2019 - Here is a poll generic poll from Morning Consult - Between Democrats, they rank: Biden - 29; Sanders - 22; Harris - 13; Warren - 8; O'Rourke - 7; Booker - 5; Klobuchar - 3; Bloomberg - 2; Brown - 2; Castro - 1; Gabbard - 1.
2/10/2019 - Sen. Amy Klobuchar announces her formal run for president.
2/9/2019 - Sen. Elizabeth Warren announces she will run for president.
2/4/2019 - Here is a poll generic poll from Monmouth University - Between Democrats, they rank: Biden - 29; Sanders - 16; Harris - 11; Warren - 8; O'Rourke - 7; Booker - 4; Bloomberg - 4; Klobuchar - 2; Brown - 1; Castro - 1; Gillibrand - 1; Gabbard - 1.
2/3/2019 - New, early Iowa polls are in which puts a different flavor on things. Between Democrats, they rank: Biden - 29; Harris - 18; Sanders - 15; Warren - 11; O'Rourke - 6; Booker - 4; Brown (D-OH) - 4; Klobuchar - 3; Castro - 2; Gillibrand - 1.
On the them vs. Trump front it comes down as: Biden (51 - 49); Sanders (49 - 50); Warren (48 - 52); Harris & O'Rourke (47 - 53); Gillibrand (46 - 54); Brown (46 - 55)
2/1/2019 - Sen Cory Booker formally declared he is running for President
1/31/2019 - The following Senators who have announced or are interested in running for President sadly (IMO) voted against an amendment not to precipitously pull our troops out of Syria as Donald Trump announced: Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Jeff Merkley, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren.
1/30/2019 - A new poll puts the leading candidates thusly: Biden (32), Sanders (15), Harris (10), O'Rourke (6), Warren (6), Booker (3), Bloomburg (2), Castro (1), Brown (1), Gillibrand (1), Gabbard (D-HI) (0)
Also, there is this: A Detroit News report has Biden (53-40), Sanders (52-41), Harris (47-42), and Warren (46-43) ahead of Trump.
1/27/2019 - Howard Schultz (I-CA) - former Democrat, billionaire, and former CEO of Starbucks tossed his hat in the ring because he thinks Democrats are moving too far left.
1/27/2019 - With the addition of Kamala Harris (D-CA) to the field of announced candidates the Democrats running for president is the most diverse in history. We now have:
- 4 women
- 1 Asian
- 1 Hispanic
- 1 married gay
- 1 black
- 1 Indian (not Native American) (Harris is a black, Indian, female)
1/24/2019 - Pete Buttigieg (D-IN), 37 and mayor of South Bend, IN formed committee to formally explore presidential run.
1/23/2019 - A new Public Policy poll keeps VP Joe Biden in the lead over Trump 53-41; Sanders 51-41; Harris 48-41; Warren 48-42; Gillibrand and Booker 47-42. Yes I know it is way early, but it is still way fun.
1/21/2019 - Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) announced she is running for president
1/18/2019 - Sen Bob Casey (D-PA) announced he is no longer considering running for president.
1/17/2019 - CNN ranks the top ten on this day as 1) Kamala Harris, 2) Beto O'Rourke (D-TX), 3) Joe Biden (D-DE), 4) Elizabeth Warren (D-MA, 5), Cory Booker (D-NJ), 6) Sherrod Brown (D-OH), 7) Bernie Sanders (I-VT), 8) Kirsten Gillibrand (D-MI), 9) Amy Klobuchar (D-NY), 10) Julian Castro (D-TX)
1/15/2019 - Sen Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) announced on Colbert that she has formed an exploratory committee.
1/9/2019 - A Public Policy poll in North Carolina have Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders leading Trump, Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris are tied, and Beto O'Rourke and Cory Booker are trailing.
1/9/2019 - Tom Steyer, activist and billionaire, announced he is not going to run.
1/7/2019 - Sens. Cory Booker, Kamala Harris and Kirsten Gillibrand are interviewing potential aides and lining up campaign headquarters.
1/3/2019 - Sen Barbara Feinstein endorses former VP Joe Biden
1/3/2019 - Former Gov Martin O'Malley drops out and endorses former representative Beto o'Rourke
© 2019 Scott Belford