- Politics and Social Issues
April, May, June: Israel Plans to Attack Iranian Nuclear Sites
The latest development in the "rumor of war" against Iran for its development of the nuclear bomb comes from DoD's Panetta who clearly stated that Israel plans to conduct an attack on Iran sometime in April, May or June. The plan is to do so without US help and to use their own bunker busting bombs. Accordingly, Israel feels like it must attack by June for afterwards, Iran's defenses and upgrades will render their bunker busting bombs ineffective and only the US MOPs will then be able to accomplish it.
So, the rumor of war continues by both sides, the question is, is the US\Israel playing a sort of psychological warfare with Iran about this pending attack and obvious buildup of forces near Iran in hopes that Iran will decide NOT to pursue the atomic bomb? if so, nothing seems to have worked thus far. It is probably both. No one wants war, yet, both sides have drawn their lines in the sand, neither can really back down. The West is building their war machine up, just as they they before invading Iraq-getting all the logistical elements into place before acting. It takes time and the US wants the USS Ponce to support the special forces, so, this ship will not be ready for deployment until May. This sort of states that the US will not attack until at least then.
For Israel, who feels very threatened by Iran, right or not, has the capability to do it alone before May, in fact, for them and in their minds, the sooner the better before Iran does make their facilities even stronger. Makes sense. It will be a very risky attack for them and one that could easily backfire with mishap.
If the Israeli attack fails, then the US would have to try it. The same high risk applies, but the US would fare better having the US 5th Fleet nearby with several carriers. This situation is such high risk for the world either way it goes: if the attack causes such mayhem and mess in the world from Iran's reaction, despite the bombing success, it will still be BAD. If the attack fails, then Iran becomes more emboldened and gets the nuclear bomb and will be even more tempted to use it, or threaten to use it. None of this scenario outcome is good for the world and fuel prices.
This is a damned if you do and damned if don't situation.