Assad is Winning in Syria
America's foreign policy in the middle east is one of fear and hesitancy of action, thus, the only thing Obama's administration can do is inaction. He draws a red line to invoke fear in the enemy and when it is crossed, nothing is done except the most miniscule of things that are token and will do nothing to stop Assad from killing more than 80,000 and displacing over two million.
This inaction simply has allowed Iran to send 6000 trained forces and has allowed 6000 Hezbollah fighters to enter into the Syrian wasteland to secure regions that Syria's military can no longer do. Assad's most powerful and trustworthy division, the 4th, is commanded by his brother. While it is a former shell of its original strength, probably not more than 7000, it pretty much has sealed Damascus under firm control. But outside of the city, it is a different story and up until Iran and Hezbollah openly defied Obama's idle threats, the rebels were actually in and out of Damascus, never quite strong enough to hold sections but greatly making Assad nervous.
The rebels did take Homs that cut off the road from the coast to Assad. They had also controlled Qusayr. However, it fell today to Assad as the Iranians and Hezbollah attacked and Assad bombed the rebels. Now, the road from the town into Lebanon is open and Assad could use it to transfer weapons as he promised he would. It cuts off the Syrian rebels’ main supply and communications route via Lebanon through which their Arab backers Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE to send them fighters, arms and funds. Homs is in a precarious position now. Worse, Turkey has said it will stop helping the rebels.
Russia and the US have agreed to have a peace conference. Meanwhile, Russia sends Assad at least 4-6 batteries of S-300 missiles and stiffens its naval presence near Syria. Russia threatens Israel not to conduct another attack into Syria or else.
Where is America? Many Americans are asking this as well as most Syrians. Obama is so afraid to do anything that the signal sent to Russia, Iran, the Rebels, Assad and all countries in the middle east is that Obama is just talk and threats. You cannot count on him. Obama is full of excuses to not do something, like the gas usage and redline-Assad used it, then Obama altered the conditions to his redline so he would not look stupid and not be forced to act. Yet, even a layperson can see his bluff.
So, the Russians and Iran intervene while stating, leave Syria to the Syrians and there should be no outside intervention! Yet, they do. Iran does, Hezbollah does, all because America is weak to act, to do something more than nothing. Obama is afraid to use American military power, he is gun shy. Meanwhile, Assad is planning to run for president in 2014 and will accept monitors only from Russian and China. Assad does not expect peace to come because the rebels are fragmented and have terrorist groups among them making any peace talks moot. What are they going to talk about? Assad will not talk with terrorist groups.
The only nation with any guts is Israel. A tiny nation whose future is at risk more and more every day and it does not take an Israeli to see it. Israel will attack Syria again, one can count on it. Will that finally cause Obama to act should Russia becomes bolder? If Israel is attacked?
America's foreign policy in this region is pathetic.Gutless. Wimpy. The only way Assad will leave is if he is killed by some means. But, his death only means total war between the remaining factions. It really seems the only way to stop it the blood is for super powers to enter it.