Can Senator Bernie Sanders Beat Donald Trump In the 2020 Presidential Election?
The Importance of Voting
The above scenario for the 2020 Presidential Election is a hypothetical situation but interesting to ponder
Bernie Sanders of Vermont is now the most popular US Senator today. His name keeps on being mentioned as a possible Democratic nominee for President in 2020. I decided to offer an analysis of which candidate would win in a hypothetical match up between Bernie Sanders and current US President Donald Trump. This article will be more like a 2020 election projection between these two men. Before I go any further with this article, let me say that all attempts will be made to analyze the election in such a way so that the article will not have a partisan slant. This means that attempts will be made to not make it too left-wing or too right wing. I have studied history since the early 1990’s however I am not a political expert by any means. I know that so many people in the United States may or may not be thinking of which person the Democrats will nominate for President to challenge Donald Trump (assuming that he is still in office by 2020). With that said, let’s get to the main focus of the article which is the 2020 Presidential Election. It is a detailed electoral analysis that shows how and why Bernie Sanders will beat Donald Trump a view that I had before the results of the 2020 Democratic primary.
Initial prediction: Bernie Sanders defeats incumbent President Donald J. Trump but the margin of victory would be very small.
Total projected Electoral votes:
Bernie Sanders 274
Donald J. Trump 264
How Do We Calculate the Electoral Vote Numbers?
The way that the Electoral votes were projected for the article is as follows: when you visit the website 270 to win, there is a map of the United States. Start with a blank map and choose which candidate you think will win each state. There is a drop down menu on the page that allows you to select the names of the candidates. This is the simplest way to describe what to do when you visit the website. This is a fun activity that can leave you addicted to the page. Note: I used the numbers for the 2016 Election in making my calculations.
Color on the Map for 270towin.com
Donald J. Trump
Can Bernie Sanders Defeat Donald Trump?
Faces of Bernie Sanders
The West Coast States (California, Washington, and Oregon)
In this area of the country, Bernie Sanders is going to beat Donald Trump by a huge margin. Oregon and Washington will go in Bernie’s favor because of Seattle and Portland and the fact that these two cities are so liberal. California which has not gone to a Republican candidate since the 1980’s will end up voting for Bernie Sanders by an even bigger margin than it did for Hillary Clinton in 2016. We may see something like this:
Bernie Sanders: 75%
Donald Trump: 25%
The reason for this is that by 2020, Donald Trump will be even more unpopular and CA voters rejected him by margins of at least 3 to 1. I expect him to be beaten by an even worse margin in 2020. California is too urban and too liberal for any Republican candidate to win there. Hawaii will go overwhelmingly in favor of Bernie Sanders because of the high minority population there and Alaska will vote for Donald Trump (this one’s pretty much obvious). With wins in California, Oregon, and Washington, Sanders will end up with an easy 74 Electoral Votes if we use the 2016 numbers.
Bernie Sanders' Vice Presidential Nominee
Which person should Bernie Sanders select as his Vice President?
The Mountain West States (Nevada, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana)
The Mountain West or the Rocky Mountain States will go heavily in favor of Donald Trump and this is because these states are too conservative. There are 22 Electoral Votes in this section of the country. In addition, I would also put Nevada in Trump’s favor because of the fact that Nevada is still one of least educated states in the country. Even though the minority population in Nevada is growing, it may not be enough to help Sanders win the state. Utah which will vote for Trump pretty much no matter what, may become competitive if Evan McMullin enters the race as an Independent candidate.
Colorado and New Mexico should be won by Bernie Sanders due to the young people, African Americans, and Trump’s extreme immigration policies.
I would be shocked if Sanders didn’t win both New Mexico and Colorado.
A photo of Donald Trump and Mike Pence at the 2016 Republican National Convention
The Great Plains States (North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas)
The Great Plains States will vote heavily in favor of the incumbent Trump even if he is more unpopular in 2020. There is something to be said about a sort of loyalty to the party. States like Kansas voted Republican for generations and I don’t expect that to change in 2020.
Most of the southern states, Iowa, Indiana, and Missouri will more than likely be Trump wins
The above statement is pretty much accurate for those of us that understand the mentality of the populations of these states and demographics. Bernie Sanders will lose very badly in the South because the South does not believe in gun control. Also, the South has been conservative since the end of the 1970’s. Even though the minority population in Texas has been growing, Sanders will lose in Texas by at least double digits due to the fact that residents in that state would not be in favor of his socialist views. Iowa and Missouri are still going to be too rural for Sanders to win those two states. Indiana will go in Trump’s favor due to what I like to call the Mike Pence effect. Pence is from Indiana and served as the state’s governor. Sanders will win Illinois due to turnout levels in Chicago. Minnesota which has not voted Republican since 1972 will vote for Bernie Sanders by a wide margin, something like 70 to 30 percent. Michigan might be won by Bernie. I say this because he won Michigan in the Democratic primary in 2016. And if African American turnout is anywhere near 2008 or 2012 levels, I expect Bernie to win this swing state. Trump may win in Wisconsin due to the nature of it being a conservative Democratic state. Madison is seen as a college town but that will not be enough to help Sanders win in Wisconsin. Although Ohio has lots of working class whites, many of whom voted for Donald because they didn’t like Hillary Clinton, will probably vote for Trump again but not by much. He will probably win Ohio by 1 to 2 percent. By this point in the Election night:
Donald Trump: 235 Electoral Votes
Bernie Sanders: 138 Electoral Votes
The Northeast states including New York will vote overwhelmingly for Bernie Sanders especially in 2020
A message for Republicans here: don’t even waste your time trying to win any of these states. The Northeast especially New York and Vermont will vote heavily in favor of Bernie Sanders. He may even win in New Hampshire due to getting most of the support of college educated voters. New York will reject its native born Donald Trump yet again, thus bringing Sanders closer to victory.
Other swing states: Pennsylvania, Florida, and Arizona
PA and FL have been swing states since about 2000. PA will be a tossup but if the African American vote is anywhere near 2008 or 2012 levels, Bernie Sanders will win the state in a close, hard fought battle. Florida while also a swing state may go to President Trump due to the conservative White vote and the Cuban vote. Cubans usually vote Republican. Florida is a critical battleground state but I just find it hard to believe that Florida voters would embrace Bernie Sanders’ left wing stance. Arizona I would also classify as a battleground state by 2020 because of Latinos’ dissatisfaction with Trump. Arizona has traditionally voted Republican since 2000 but because Trump will be so unpopular, that will more than likely cause him to lose the state. Do not forget Arizona! If Bernie Sanders wins the state of Arizona and wins PA, he ends up with 274 Electoral votes, thus ensuring that he will serve as either the 46th or 47th President of the United States (if Mike Pence is the President prior to the election).
Can Bernie Sanders really beat Donald Trump?
Normally, I would say that US voters would be reluctant to vote for a Jewish man as President. But 2020 will not be a normal election cycle. I expect higher voter turnout if Sanders is the nominee because he is so popular and he started a sort of political revolution that young people (the millennials really liked). However, Sanders’ ability to win also depends on how much of the African American and Latino votes he can get. If the minority voter turnout is low, Trump will be reelected as President. As to who Sanders may choose as his VP running mate, names such as Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii come to my mind. All of the above assumes that Sanders even decides to run for President again and wins the nomination. His age of 79 by 2020 may be a liability but as 2016 showed us, if someone like Donald Trump was able to win at 70, then Sanders’ age should not be a big issue. Are we ready to vote for a man like Bernie Sanders? I certainly would do so but would the rest of the country do it? Time will tell but my assumption is that Sanders even at 79 could beat Trump because he is a better populist candidate with a strong message. Donald Trump did win in 2016 but he did not win by a huge margin. He won’t have the fortune of being a brand new candidate in 2020 who is not a politician. He will be an incumbent President who may suffer the same fate that George H.W. Bush did in 1992. Or on the flip side, those that voted for Donald Trump in 2016 may do so again due to being fearful of change. Often times, many people will not want to go outside their comfort zone and take risks. Nothing is a guarantee in the United States when it comes to voting patterns. The US is not Canada or Sweden. Upon analyzing Sanders' chances against Trump in 2020 had he been the nominee for the Democrats, Sanders would have actually lost the election to Donald Trump due to not being a strong enough candidate to appeal to Independent voters that don't necessarily like Donald Trump. The other issue that Bernie Sanders would have had is that he may not have been able to attract enough support from African American or Latino voters.
As we look back at the 2020 Democratic Primary season, given how poorly Bernie Sanders performed in many of these primaries, he would not have beaten President Donald Trump in this election cycle. I give him credit for at least attempting to make another run for the White House during a time when the United States remains a country that is very much divided politically.
Bernie Sanders Announcing His 2020 Presidential Bid
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Secular Talk's Kyle Kulinski Predicts a Bernie Sanders Run in 2020
© 2017 Ara Vahanian